I'm tempted to think that Edwards probably has hit a 'high water' mark to be honest, and until someone can try and get underneath the Obama skin and drag him into substantive issues he should continue to ride the crest of the wave, talking about values, principals, and visions without actually spelling out what he's really about. The similarities with President Blair are all too evident, but American politics are volatile and strange things happen. I mentioned Gary Hart earlier, another one who walked away from Iowa with a Republican nomination of course was Pat Robertson. Now George H Bush was a former Director of the CIA, and strangely enough a few revelations appeared about him shortly after he threatend to de-rail Bush's bid, and he was never credible again. The name escapes me but the Democratic winner of Iowa in 1992 is now a footnote in history, Bill Clinton finished well down the field as an also ran.
I think there's a danger in staying in the cross-hairs for too long and the media and public can tire of you. Hillary's allowed something like a 20 point plus lead in Iowa to turn around into a 5 point third place defeat, which however she tries to paint it, is poor. She has the personal charisma of a rattle snake, and as a delegate said in a Ch4 piece last night (whose coverage is a damn sight more impartial than the BBC's who are obviously trying to do their bit for Democrats abroad, and have nailed their colours to the Clinton mast). "She's so 1990's". Their correspondent made a slightly waspish remark by way of observation;
"She's talking about change, and been forced into adopting Obama's language. However, she's offering no more change than 'back to the future."
It was always assumed that her voting block was established and loyal, and thus open the least amount of swing either way, but she's presided over a 25 point haemorrhage, and is clearly going to have to re-think quickly, as the compressed nature of the primary season this year, could mean it runs away from her, before she can respond. A defeat in NH means that she's going to have to lay in a bit a take battle damage in the hope of sticking a few on Obama, or otherwise she's starting to look like the beaten candidate that I think well over half the population always wanted her to be. If the Clinton vote continues to evapourate, it's far from clear where it will go. Americans like winners rather than under-dogs and Obama will doubtless pick up some. With her age cohort being what it is though, (40 pluses) there has to be an expectation that Edwards will draw off more, it's just that as things stand, the evidence of a collapse in the Clinton vote isn't necessarily there yet, though a 25 point fall clearly shows that it isn't as strong as initially thought, and it is now demonstrably possible that she could lose momentum. A couple of hits in heartlands and it's suddenly looking bleak
Being on EST I suspect we'll see the first set of post Iowa polls hitting the news feeds in the next couple of hours. The only ones I've picked up so far are suspicious.
Suffolk WHDH has Clinton +12, and Zogby has Clinton +6. Interestingly Obama remains unchanged in both polls, and the Clinton -6 goes to Edwards. I'm highly suspicious of the accuracy of this though, and would tend to ignore it. The trading activity on some American political betting exchange indicates something like 66% Obama and 30% Clinton, but considering the amount of money that's been traded (it's clearly not as big in the US as it is here, it wouldn't disgrace a seller at Fontwell).
I've actually been surprised just how fragile the Clinton vote in Iowa proved. Obama's obviously got to test his appeal in the South yet, but sicne the primary's are restricted to Democrats (or broadly sympathetic neutrals strictly speaking) we've got something of a false barometer which will only really become more apparent once a Republican is put up by way of alternative.
Incidentally, the neutrals who intend voting in New Hampshire have indicated that two thirds will vote in the Deomcrat primary, which again points to Obama winning I'd have thought. If Hillary can't put up a strong showing, she's in trouble. Personally I expect she will, and she'll go on. Money is not the issue to her, but she's starting to look unelectable to me (well I always thought she was) but have to conceed I thought Obama would be too, albeit for different reasons. ONly a fool would try to hold that position now norty but then American politics isn't averse to throwing in the unforeseen.
I still have discounted the spectacular yet :suspect:
