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Mid-terms tonight in the States with the Democrats virtually certain to lose control of the House anyway.


In reality the question is how much damage will be done to the Democrats, the two main indicators being the size of the GOP majority in the House and whether they can keep the Senate. The Republicans need 39 to retake control of the House, but if we see a real 1994-style "wave" (not beyond the bounds of possibility by any means) they could take upwards of 55-60 seats.*


I had a chunk on the Democrats retaining control of the Senate at 2.4 last night. I will probably know my fate relatively early in the night as the Senate race in West Virginia is key. If Joe Manchin can withstand the recent GOP onslaught (and all polling/models I have got my hands on suggests things are breaking in his favour) there I make the Dems 1.1 or 1.2 to retain as the GOP would then have to take both Washington (possible though I would make Patty Murray favourite there) and in California (very highly unlikely) as well as winning the toss-ups in Nevada, Colorado and Illinois (GOP favourites - though not certainties by any means - in the three affairs). 


I actually think the preferred outcome for much of the Republican party establishment would be a solid GOP showing with defeat for the "tea party" candidates. A weak showing from the "tea party" would negate their potential effect in the lead-up to 2012 and, most significantly, deal a serious (probably fatal) blow to any ambitions Sarah Palin may have on going for the presidency. On the other hand if Angle wins in Nevada or Joe Miller in Alaska (likely) or even O'Donnell in Connecticut (a woman who I think may actually be seriously deranged) Palin could begin to build serious grass-roots momentum to combat the inevitable establishment attacks to come.


The fun starts around midnight and I will probably be up most of the night.


5 + 3 = ?
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