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I think you're over-estimating the role of Obama's personality, Clive. What most Americans see isn't someone too educated or liberal (or black) for them but rather a man who has failed to turn the economy around (unemployment remains at 9.6% most significantly) and has devoted a huge amount of time ramming an unpopular health care reform package down their throats.*


Bill Clinton may have had a deeper connection to the American electorate but, more importantly, he had a booming economy and a budget surplus.


*The electoral significance of the debate over health care shouldn't be under-estimated by the way ~ it's almost certain to have a hugely detrimental impact on Blue Dog Democrats (conservative Democrats in republican-leaning districts southern states) as well as states where Obama is particularly unpopular - notably Pennsylvania.


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