The Oaks

Frankel

Frankel

Senior Jockey
Joined
Jan 12, 2014
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Thoughts on the race?

Taghrooda seems to be the clear fav. Have to say I was very taken with the other Hamdan horse Tarfasha yesterday.
 
Missed Tarfasha race, but Weld is flying, still and Hamdan might run two. My eye is on Momentus, more so since the Musidora. Had her at Lingfield, but lacked experience. Simcock is peaking soon and he could get another run into her at Goodwood in the old Lupe Stakes end May. Form with Jordan Princess from last year leaves something, but looks progressive.
 
archie said:
The weather forecast gives hope for proper good going.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/epsom-surrey#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1402095600
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I'm not so sure.

From the BHA site:

EPSOM DOWNS - Flat (Updated:04/06/2014 at 16:31:06)
Going
Good, Good to Soft in places
(GoingStick: 7.7 Overall . Home Straight Stands Side 7.5 Far
Side Oaks strip 7.2 on Wednesday at 07:30)

Stalls
1m 4f - Centre

Rails
Rail dolled out up to 6 yards from 1m to winning post, adding 17
yards (16 metres) to race distances.

Weather
6mm rain by 4pm Wednesday. Light rain likely to continue on
and off until late evening. Thursday dry. Friday warmer with risk
of showers put probably coming after racing.
 
ulleyseys46 said:
marvellous looked good on the soft ground in ireland and was impressive, could take all the beating. dont know what record irish 1000 guineas winners have at epsom. gl all
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Imagine did the double in 2001. Triptych won the Irish 2000 then ran second in the Oaks. They're the only ones I can think of at the moment.
 
AOB has also run Misty for me (5th), Yesterday ( unlucky 2nd) and Tarascon (6th) in the Epsom Oaks as winners of the Irish 1000 Guineas. In the Groove finished fourth in the Oaks after her win in Ireland.
I think Valoris also won the double in the sixties.
 
I wouldn't back Taghrooda at 10 for this to be honest, the form of that Pretty Polly is mince, the time was slow. Not for me.

Marvellous deserves to be fav but whether there's much value in her now is another matter, I missed every price down when trying to get on.

I can't understand why they're talking about taking Tarfasha out because of the ground? She ran on yielding ground last time and pissed up in a very decent time too. She should be second fav and if she is 8/1 on the day and runs, I'll have to play.

The one I like at a price is Volume, won well when making all at Newbury and the time was very good (my friend who does a lot of sectionals marked her up on that front too) and I'm surprised she's 16/1, I thought she'd be much nearer 10/1. She'd be my main bet in the race.

The other rag I'd chance an EW bet on would be Anipa, she won a dross trial but she will handle the ground and stay all day.

March Daisy and Honor Bound are to be respected with the former's handicap form working out brilliantly but other than that, they're a moderate bunch as always for this race.
 
Gamla Stan said:
I can't understand why they're talking about taking Tarfasha out because of the ground? She ran on yielding ground last time and pissed up in a very decent time too. She should be second fav and if she is 8/1 on the day and runs, I'll have to play.
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What I read into this is that she is special.

You've a horse who on the book has done something on bad ground, but trainer is seeing something else. So what she's done thus far is just a smoke screen then, the best is yet to come. The negative/ambivalent comments about her participation should be seen as a positive in this instance.
 
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Gamla Stan said:
I wouldn't back Taghrooda at 10 for this to be honest, the form of that Pretty Polly is mince, the time was slow. Not for me.

Marvellous deserves to be fav but whether there's much value in her now is another matter, I missed every price down when trying to get on.

I can't understand why they're talking about taking Tarfasha out because of the ground? She ran on yielding ground last time and pissed up in a very decent time too. She should be second fav and if she is 8/1 on the day and runs, I'll have to play.

The one I like at a price is Volume, won well when making all at Newbury and the time was very good (my friend who does a lot of sectionals marked her up on that front too) and I'm surprised she's 16/1, I thought she'd be much nearer 10/1. She'd be my main bet in the race.

The other rag I'd chance an EW bet on would be Anipa, she won a dross trial but she will handle the ground and stay all day.

March Daisy and Honor Bound are to be respected with the former's handicap form working out brilliantly but other than that, they're a moderate bunch as always for this race.
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What kind of rating do you think Taghrooda might have achieved by now with a campaign similar to Volume? No doubting that the form of the Pretty Polly is gash, but Taghrooda has looked an Oaks filly all along. Think 4/1 is pretty fair at present.
 
davidjohnson said:
What kind of rating do you think Taghrooda might have achieved by now with a campaign similar to Volume?
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A fair point but it's a bit of a leap of faith at 4/1 isn't it given she's essentially just a wide margin winner of some pony listed race?

On extreme tenuous links through the fillies she beat in her maiden, there isn't much between her and Honor Bound but granted a lot of water has passed under the bridge between then and now.

I personally think she's one of the worst priced horses for a classic in a long time but it's all a game of opinions. Good use of adjectives to describe the form of the Pretty Polly thus far though!
 
The form does look dogshit but they didn't go much of a pace that day and she's a filly bred to thrive over even further than 12f.
 
Gamla Stan said:
A fair point but it's a bit of a leap of faith at 4/1 isn't it given she's essentially just a wide margin winner of some pony listed race?

On extreme tenuous links through the fillies she beat in her maiden, there isn't much between her and Honor Bound but granted a lot of water has passed under the bridge between then and now.

I personally think she's one of the worst priced horses for a classic in a long time but it's all a game of opinions. Good use of adjectives to describe the form of the Pretty Polly thus far though!
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The race may have been bad but would you not concede she was very impressive?

Would you also think Gosden knows his geese from his swans, or whatever that expression is?!
 
Hamm said:
The race may have been bad but would you not concede she was very impressive?

Would you also think Gosden knows his geese from his swans, or whatever that expression is?!
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Of course but I wouldn't say she was any more impressive than Marvellous or Tarfasha for example.
 
The form is cat sick, but Taghrooda was very impressive to me in the Shitty Polly. Powered clear, straight as you like, galloped to the line, wouldn't have stopped for another half mile. Great attitude. Sent to the front early in the straight, she wont be caught.
 
It's the Oaks though, not the Arc. You're after a filly with scope for the step up in trip as much as a decent form profile. Look at Dancing Rain and Snow Fairy for perfect examples of this.
 
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