The shamaal of change...

krizon

krizon

At the Start
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Wow! You wait for one popular protest to come along, and then you get three at once! Tunisia, Jordan, and now Egypt. All cursing oppression, corruption, unemployment, rising costs, poverty, and the lack of political and social reform. The shamaal (sandstorm) of change seems also to be threatening the complacency of Libya and events are no doubt being keenly watched by the bastions of conservatism on the Arabian Peninsula. Yemen is the most cited as the next in for an ear-bashing, but no state should feel smug.

What a stunning sight to see Egypt's major cities' roads clogged with tens of thousands of vocal but generally peaceful protests against decades of stagnation and decay. Dreadful that 100 have actually been killed - but the outcome could be so positive for the whole region. Surely around 80m people can't all be wrong? Let's hope that Egyptians - intelligent, funny, hard-working, and for far too long held back by Mubarak and the usual cronyism, get the changes they need, and make them work.

Exciting times for Arabs, for way too long held back by an arrogant status quo.
 
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Well, not the lot, Sheikh. He'd need someone to carry his bags to the waiting LearJet to Switzerland.
 
The problem will be if elections are held, the nutters get in and then "cancel elections"

Islamists do not believe in democracy..no way

unlikely in tunisia from what i gather and maybe egypt, but yemen could be tricky
 
Egypt is a secular country, believe it or not, but that's not to say that the suppressed Islamists wouldn't come out of the woodwork once their repression was lightened. Who'd have thought that a very sophisticated country like Iran would've regressed 5 centuries under the mullahs? But it has - although they've lightened up a tiny bit during the Internet age. Not enough to not make homosexuality a hanging offence, but enough to not make women cover up completely or not be educated, which is a teeny step in the right direction.
 
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Some fantastic pictures and stories coming out of the protests in Tahrir Square. Reading about people volunteering to pick up rubbish, clean the streets and provide round the clock protection for their communities against looters is pretty amazing.

It seems like the biggest fear now may be that the movement may lack a leader to steer it forward; it seems to be very much a youth-led revolution which isn't really satisfied with the traditional opposition, be it El Baradei or the Muslim Brotherhood.
 
but enough to not make women cover up completely or not be educated, which is a teeny step in the right direction.
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As i understood it, they have been clamping down in recent years rather than loosening up. Now theres a lot of harrassment of the christian population too and arent executions running at an all time high?
 
But we have our own domestic filth that throws strong support behind the Iranian regime

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/a...gstone-this-is-what-the-iranians-pay-him-for/

On his show of 23 August 2010, Ken stated: “All my political life, I’ve watched anything that looks like it might unite the Arab world, going back to Nasser and now through al-Qaeda, is seen as a threat by the West. We fear some united Arab republic, or whatever. I mean, I don’t see why we fear…”
Is Labour’s candidate for the mayor of London – a city attacked by al-Qaeda – really saying that the West is wrong to see the terrorist group as a threat? And does he really see al-Qaeda as a legitimate expression of Arab unity? I think we should be told.
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Love this piece. As many of us suspected, the crocodile tears at the time of 7/7 were no more than that and behind closed doors, Livingstone and his comrades...well lets imagine
 
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Bar the Bull said:
Could somebody please make the Egypt affair black and white for me?

Should I be for them or against them??
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From: http://motherjones.com/mojo/2011/01/whats-happening-egypt-explained

The basics: Egypt is a large, mostly Arab, mostly Muslim country. At around 80 million people, it has the largest population in the Middle East and the third-largest in Africa. Most of Egypt is in North Africa, although the part of the country that borders Israel, the Sinai peninsula, is in Asia. Its other neighbors are Sudan (to the South), Libya (to the West), and Saudi

Why are Egyptians unhappy? They have basically no more freedom than Tunisians. Egypt is ranked 138th of 167 countries on The Economist's Democracy index, a widely accepted measure of political freedom. That ranking puts Egypt just seven spots ahead of Tunisia. And Egyptians are significantly poorer than their cousins to the west.

How did this all start? This particular round of protests started with the protests in Tunisia. But like their Tunisian counterparts, Egyptian protesters have pointed to a specific incident as inspiration for the unrest. Many have cited the June 2010 beating death of Khaled Said (warning: graphic photos), allegedly at the hands of police, as motivation for their rage. But it's also clear that the issues here are larger.

Why is this more complicated for the US than Tunisia was? The Tunisian regime was a key ally for the US in the fight against Al Qaeda. But the US government's ties to Tunisia's Ben Ali pale in comparison to American ties to Egypt. Shadi Hamid of the Brookings Institution, a centrist think tank, explains:


Predictions that a Tunisia-like uprising will soon topple Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak are premature—the Egyptian regime, with its well-paid military, is likely to be more unified and more ruthless than its Tunisian counterparts were... The U.S. is the primary benefactor of the Egyptian regime, which, in turn, has reliably supported American regional priorities. After Iraq, Afghanistan, and Israel, Egypt is the largest recipient of U.S. assistance, including $1.3 billion in annual military aid. In other words, if the army ever decides to shoot into a crowd of unarmed protestors, it will be shooting with hardware provided by the United States. As Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations points out, the Egyptian military is "not there to project power, but to protect the regime." [Emphasis added.]
 
The protesters are obviously the goodies unless you're opposed to liberty. The regime say the alternative is the Islamists.
 
Tracks: reading some of the articles online in various top papers by Arab journos, it would seem that El Baradei is a bit of a busted flush as far as this largely youth-led rebellion is concerned. He's had years in ineffectual opposition to Mubarak and probably by joining in with the crowds and spouting about 'we' this and that, he's annoyed some of them by trying to piggyback protests which he's never had the balls to call for. I doubt that he'd be first choice for heading a new government, should it go that way in due course.

Tonight I see the pro-Mubarakis are out, and stone-throwing has been added to name-calling and placards. I just hope this doesn't escalate to where the police's fairly decent behaviour so far is compromised. I also see that Obama's made a speech which the Beeb's described as 'strongly on the side of the demonstrators', which is very interesting. You might've thought that he'd have called for the demos to stop, which would eventually lead - within moments, probably - to shots being fired. The USA is coming in for enough stick as the puppet master of the country already, without it being held to task for what Clivex has intimated - providing the ammo which might kill unarmed and generally good-natured demonstrators.

I don't know why holidaymakers aren't staying on to YouTube their pix - it's a very exciting time with very little chance of getting in the way of the missiles. You've probably more chance of getting mugged in Florida or carjacked in Cape Town than knocked about in Cairo.
 
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Obama has probably played this right

It was an odd question regarding whther they should be supported or not...only those in favour of athoritarian or lsiamist (or both) regimes (such as lLivingstone and other hard lefties) would not want real change in the area

The problem is that even though the protestors are increasing in number, what do the huge bulk of the rest of the popualtion desire? Is egypt really a turkey or is it a latent iran?

get the feeling its more likely the former

Also if tunisia gets moving quickly (and that country has little extremism) then they will pave the way
 
I know little about middle eastern affairs but my first thoughts were 'if they get rid of him tomorrow will it really solve all unemployment and domestic problems in the country 'etc. If the Americans got rid of Obama tomorrow would it solve of their problems?

I don't know, I thought Cameron might be the answer to the U.K's problems and the verdict is still out on him I guess, and I'm all for the idea that young people (in this case many young Egyptian people) should have something to believe in, but i'm not sure what we're being told by large streams of the media about this revolution solving all unemployment and domestic problems is accurate.

If the protesters could explain their economic policies and how they will actually change Egypt, and that was reported on the news rather than most of the sporadic, heated stuff I;ve seen so far (totally understandable), I would find that interesting. But then the media are the media.
 
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You'll get a biased point of view depending on which paper you read, Martin, but what Egypt has had is thirty years of the same man in power, totally unlike anything we experience (although Blair was coming close enough!) in the UK or the Americans do. Opposition voices in Egypt have been calling for an end to the corruption, largely based on nepotism - i.e., top jobs for your family and friends, and huge 'gifts' to enable, say, a block of flats to be built shoddily by a bent construction company. Flats quite frequently just collapse in Egypt because building regulations have been bypassed, with backhanders to officials from the builders. You can't get a licence for a new business, say, but Minister So-and-So's dear friends get one immediately. Roads are built because the tender process is bent - Mr Sharif is informed of the lowest tender so far in exchange for a nice 'gift' from Mr Sharif who, surprise-surprise! - comes up with the lowest, winning tender. And on and on, year after year. Who gets a job, who gets a licence, who gets a plot of land, who gets mysteriously fired from their job, who gets beaten up by 'mystery attackers', and so on. If you speak up against it, you are likely to be intimidated by having threats made against your children, your wife, or your car's found burnt out.

People are sick of it - they want the corrupt officials out, they want a more equal process throughout society. It doesn't seem too much to ask.
 
Which is all well and good, but will they really want a liberal democracy?

Is it really coincidence that out of all the worlds regions, the arab countries have been the slowest to embrace democracy (or fight for it ?)

That is largely down to the very authoritarian faith in some countries I suspect but also a rather too high regard for "strong leaders", which may be a bit of a cultural tradition

We shall see
 
I think you've got to put countries where the majority of the population is Muslim (if not the government's ethos) in the sort of religious context that we were in around the time of Henry VIII. Okay, the rulers don't always pretend to be in a direct line from God, but close enough - and like our kings, their previous emperors, sultans and what have you were always in positions of power backed up by the self-serving interests of those quoting from their holy books. It's a very difficult alliance to break, as dissenters found out as they were called blasphemers/traitors, basted in BBQ sauce, and fired up for a day's sport. From Romans vs Christians to Sunni vs Shi'a, Proddie vs Catholic - you name it - religion has bolstered the powerful and vice versa, provided mutual interests of power and control over the masses was served.

There are no doubt extremist Muslims in the mix with Coptic Christians, other Christians, just normal everyday Muslims, non-believers (who aren't stoned to death, thanks to the government's mild views on faith) and probably a few esoterica as there are everywhere.

I see it all as part of the human race's painful, and painfully slow, evolution from polarised positions on everything, from race to tribe, from religion to non-belief, from walking on all fours to becoming bipedal. Who knows, we might actually become civilized just before the Sun's decaying orbit fritzes us to a little black nugget.
 
This is extraordinary and quite superb. The protestors have changed history

I do hope that the dsire of for genuine democracy rather than simply change but theres are some good reasons to be optimistic

Sound like algeria may be next and wih luck Syria will go to. The most wonderful change would be Iran and it shgould be remebered that their green movement was probably the true original inpsiration
 
Can only echo what you've said, Clivex. Yemen has already had a bit of a go (virtually an identical scenario with a 30-year incumbent well past his sell-by date), so I wouldn't be surprised to see the populace ramp up the tempo again.

There's a lot of talk about radical Islamists in Egypt, but as the Muslim Brotherhood's been illegal for decades, meaning it's largely been sidelined and very quiet, it's hard to judge how strongly it's supported. Moreover, it was born back in 1949, and a great deal has changed in the Middle East since then, especially in the last three years. It could look well out of date and out of step with the young generation's thrust into modernity - which is what has been attempted a little in Iran, but brutally crushed. If people are prepared to literally put their lives in the firing line if they go into the streets again, they're very, very brave. God knows enough were executed in jail via Ahmedinajad's stooge clerics, when they weren't shot outright in the streets, poor souls.

The Gulf's rulers are probably still complacent as there is very little real poverty among their own people, having stuffed them well over the years with free education at home and abroad, free medical care, good pensions, and all the materialism under the sun. The people who are poor in the Gulf are the Asian expats, exploited in every way, and without any real supportive muscle from their home countries. However, their poverty in the Gulf is relative comfort compared to what they'll have left in their own corrupt nations, so I don't see a squeak there. There is, though, serious under-employment of Gulf nationals, but as none of them are yet ready to face labouring, cleaning, and driving refuse lorries, let alone looking after their own children (Phillipina nannies rule), it could be said that their governments haven't seriously taxed them by offering to boot out the dozens of other nationalities and let them do those jobs in lieu.
 
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