The Wokingham

Tout Seul

Tout Seul

Senior Jockey
Joined
May 2, 2003
Messages
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The big 6f and 7f handicaps so far this year have been pretty good races with a number of useful horses consistently runnining well. Hawkeyethe noo, Horseradish Our Jonathan, have been thereabouts in several whilst the have been good first of the season performances from Pastoral Player and Hoof It.
Handicaps are handicaps and when you win well you get hammered as Our Jonathan did when he went from OR 93 to OR111 over 3 races in 2009. It's taken time for him to drop back down but he was clearly fit and fancied on Saturday when he won very well over 7f after having to be snatched up early on.( Worth watching the video). It had been my intention prior to that race to put the large part of winnings on him for the Wokingham however I now feel, perhaps wrongly, that he is a 7f horse. From the way he moved out in the betting others might agree though the uplift in weight he is likely to get could be another reason.

I ponted out on here how well Hawkeyethenoo was finishing behind Pastoral Player (FTO) over 6f on '2000' day and he duly obliged next time over 7f. He's gone up 8lbs for that to 104 - this time last year he was 88. He is unlikely to beat Pastoral Player who won readily that day.That relegates him to a place position at best for this 6f.

Hoof It beat Horseradish and Our Jonathan at York over 6f and has gone up 6lbs whilst the 2nd has gone up 2lb, a 4lb difference for a length beating. However Hoof It was having his first outing of the season and was comfortable whilst I take Horseradish to have given his best.

So, it should not come as a surprise that that leaves the the first 2 in the betting. My reading is that Hoof It and Pastoral Player are both at the top of their class and that the York race was the more competitive and informative. Given equal treatment by the draw I'd expect Hoof It to come out on top and I have backed accordingly at 8's. Pastoral Player is the clear alternative and at 10/1 is a stonking ew bet. I just hope they are drawn on different sides
 
I respect both of them but my worry would be that each has shown his hand. Hoof It is up 6lbs and Pastoral Player 7lbs. One who definitely hasn't shown his hand is Dorback who was given an eyecatching ride at Newbury but might not get in. Of those outside the front two who are sure to get in I like Deacon Blues who ran well first time out at Ascot and whose Portland run last season suggested he has one of these big handicaps in him. That said, he is up 3lbs for the Ascot run but I think he's just the sort of horse with which his trainer excels and I think he might have a bit more improvement to come.
 
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I've watched the video countless times and still fail to see Our Jonathan (red cap) getting hampered. Stuart Machin makes reference to him getting hampered but it is actually Brave Prospector (yellow cap) which gets hampered. When Machin realises his error he attempts to cover it up by suggesting both were hampered rather than admit he got the colours mixed up.

With regards the Wokingham. Waffle has shaped well on all 3 starts this year. Badly hampered behind Horseradish and just ahead of Our Jonathan at Doncaster over 6f and then finding 5f too sharp for him at Musselburgh and York. His Cornwallis effort suggests the track shouldn't inconvenience him at Ascot like it might a few others.
 
I've been impressed with NASRI this year. Won a moderate 7f. handicap at Musselburgh last month but ran third to Hawkeyethenoo at Ascot giving the impression that perhaps six might suit him better. Dandy probably has a dozen or so in the race and Nasri might not be the one on the day but I feel he has a race such as this in him.
 
As have I Colin - I backed him in the Victoria Cup and think there is plenty more to come.
 
First objective achieved in that there is a discussion on a flat handicap race that is not just on the eve or the day of the race. Although some of the late season handicaps generate discussion, generally they seem to be overlooked on here.
I love these races, they are a challenge, usually competitive finishes and the prices both enable one to cover the win element of a bet and allow one the luxury of getting a few wrong yet still achieve a decent return.

What I failed to say earlier was that I certainly believe Hoof It is good enough to challenge for Group races but I fear that Pastoral Player is more likely to be condemned to that grey area occupied by those too highly rated for handicaps but not quite good enough to compete at a Group level. From a betting point of view, geared ew bets, ie 2:1 on Hoof It and 2.5:1 Pastoral Player seem very attractive to me.

FWIW I think that Hawkeyethenoo has a very good chance of winning another big handicap but over 7f.
 
There was a race over C&D a few weeks ago, TS. The first two (Imperial something and Deacon Blues) were prominent in the betting when I saw it. It was the third home that caught my eye that day. He was backed from 14s in the morning to 8-1 and finished third. Edinburgh Night, he was beaten two heads. Will he get into the race? Is he even entered? Is he any good?
 
Bar,
Edinburgh Knight was Fto this season at Ascot and ran in the York race won by Hoof It 6 days later when he was 16/20, 12l behind the winner. He was pretty well all out at Ascot but it was FTO and maybe he hadn't recovered fully at York. He's up 2lbs and would seem to have a mighty task to beat Hoof It only 4lbs better off. But the excuses are there were, god forbid, they making sure he did go further up in the weights.

He's 33/1 generally and 45/1 Betfair which imo reflects his chances ( you won't get me to say he can't win- humble pie and I do not get on)
 
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Edinburgh Knight is the sort of horse to be suited by big-field scenario of races like the Wokingham. I think he's a bit quirky and saw too much daylight at Ascot.
 
Bar,
One further point, don't let one race put you off. A prime and recent example of a similar profile to that of Edinburgh Knight was Crown Choice who ran in that Ascot race and finished 14/18. CC was my selection that day and favourite following a good win FTO. Last Saturday both Desert Orchid and I fancied him despite his Ascot performance and he won well.

CC is as low as 16/1 for the Wokingham and couldn't be written off but maybe Saturday was his day.
 
TS, congratulations on starting the discussion (perhaps the title should have "The Road to.."in front of it:o:o).

Big handicaps like this are almost irresistible to me, such a challenge. Very rarely get them right though but you don't expect to do you.

Without doubt my favourite is the Cambridgeshire, the extended distance tends to remove a lot of the 'luck in running' element you get in the sprints.

You may be the right age group, apologies if you are not, to remember King Midas winning the race (mid seventies, I think). A 3-y-o trained by Henry Candy and ridden by Des Cullen. The horse won a number of handicaps throughout the season and was the typical 'improving 3-y-o'. From memory it won at 6/1 (fav), as you can see I'm still living off that memory.
 
Colin
I may be the right age group but as I tell my sons the hard drive exceeded its capacity some time ago. Since this model cannot be upgraded whole tranches have been cleared to make room.

Re the Cambridgeshire, its one of the rare handicaps that is usually discussed on here and iirc the threads have a good record of pinpointing the winner.
 
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Tout Seul said:
I fear that Pastoral Player is more likely to be condemned to that grey area occupied by those too highly rated for handicaps but not quite good enough to compete at a Group level.
Click to expand...

I know what you mean but I think the landscape is changing/has changed in relation to these big handicaps and I'm not sure that scenario applies in the same way it once did. The days of highly-rated horses at the top of the handicap having to give lumps of weight away to potential improvers, particularly three-year-olds, have long gone. In order even to get in the race these days a horse has to have done most of his improving already, so to speak, and the weight range is typically quite narrow. The Ebor is a particularly good example - you could argue that the majority of the field nowadays fits into the "too highly rated for handicaps but not quite good enough to compete at a Group level" category but one of them is quite likely to win it.
 
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There's a lot more prize money for winning a big handicap than for the average conditions/Listed/Group Three event.
 
Had to get involved last night when I saw Hoof It was 8/1. He'll love the ground and is a Group horse, I thought he would be about 9/2.

I expect him to go off a very warm favourite.
 
Had a saver on Cheveton at 33s who beat Hoof It last year and will go on the ground.

Hoof It is the best horse in the race for me, just the ground and a draw always a worry in these Ascot handicaps.
 
Cheveton and Imperial Guest for me (runners for Clive Brittain at Newmarket and Philip Robinson comes here to ride this and a 200/1 shot in a 2yo race).
 
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