Thoughts for Saturday

Tout Seul

Tout Seul

Senior Jockey
Joined
May 2, 2003
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Some good racing today. FWIW I'm going for Phoenix Tower in the big un but there are others who following these more closely than me so I would draw attention to a couple of horses at Haydock which I have followed.

SAMIRA GOLD in the Lancashire Oaks(3.00).FTO this season but a pretty good horse last year with some fine wins. A come from behind type she's tough and willing. Spencer must have thought she was Pegasus LTO at Ascot (shoot the ****!). Backed her last night to win this and will add a place saver today. Doesn't want rain, super Seb (2/2) on board . A reasonable punt on whether Cumani can get one ready FTO at around 10's.

TOMBI I mentioned this one as a possible for the Wokingham but no real show. Possibly outclassed but on examination is better off this time in a conditions race rather than an ultra competitive handicap. For example is 4lbs better off than Knot in Wood. Given the gelding was not pushed out when it's chance was gone there could be a turnaround. This one impressed - and depressed- me when beating Atlantic Story at York and imo has a better chance than the current 10/1 would indicate.

Be lucky!
TS
 
I don't like how this looks but I had to prune it to 10k characters.
Sandown 2.10
Hoh Mike appears to have put up a lifetime peak last time at Ascot, which puts him clear at the top, and has good course form. Only 2/1 in the betting forecast, though, so no value.

Haydock 2.25
(Norm 115)
Planetarium 110+
Trenchtown 110+p
Captain Webb 108+p
Tighnabruaigh 107+p
Inventor 107
Daraahem 106+
Laterly 105p
Full Speed 104+p
Nemo Spirit 103p s
Allied Powers 102+p
I’m going to stick with Planetarium. He’s rated on the bare form of his Zetland run but the winner and third that day were Twice Over and Stubbs Art. If Planetarium is within a stone of those two this season he’s entitled to be a good ten pounds higher. I can see Fairley, whose record here for the trainer is far batter than Joe Fanning’s [Captain Webb], running them ragged from the front.

Sandown 2.40
(Norm 122)
Dubai’s Touch 124e d
Pinpoint 122
Lovelace 122
Bahar Shumaal 121? (126?)
Jack Junior 120
Unshakable 119
Celtic Sultan 118
Gold Sovereign 118+p
Ace Of Hearts 118((128e))
Flipando 117+ (125)
Masaalek 117p
Huzzah 116
Lang Shining 115+p
Fifteen Love 115+p
Kavachi 115
Farley Star 115p
Prince Of Light ?(130d)
It requires a bit of a leap of faith to believe Dubai’s Touch can suddenly rediscover his form but he’ll be worth watching for the future as he’s seriously well handicapped. Top weights tend to get races run to suit over this mile and an inside draw would help so Pinpoint and Lovelace are at backable prices (12s and 33s respectively) but I usually allow a notional 7lbs for ‘+p’ horses so, with the trainer now in top form, Gold Sovereign looks the safest option. Of the others, Bahar Shumaal is probably worth a bet at 33/1 or more. His most recent run was very smart, if taken literally, and his jockey was unable to make his claim, which he can do today so he could arguably be 5lbs higher.

Sandown 3.20
Multidimensional 122
Maraahel 121?
Literato 120s
Mount Nelson 120+
Campanologist 120?
Phoenix Tower 119
Pipedreamer 119
Stotsfold 115
Rob Roy 114
I’m really struggling to remember a poorer Eclipse but what it lacks in quality it makes up for in competitiveness and a close finish is very much in prospect, with only a couple of pounds between the majority of the runners. If I have a bet it will be on Mount Nelson. The Queen Anne was a better race in-depth than the Prince Of Wales’s and Mount Nelson should improve for the step up in trip. Multidimensional ran a cracker in the latter and is probably the one to beat but I just get the feeling the O’Brien yard have always held the selection in very high regard and he ran in the Queen Anne to bring him to the boil for this. Maraahel has been below his rating this season while Literato might not even run.

Haydock 3.35
(Norm 121)
Alfie Flits 121(125+)
Young Mick 120
Dunaskin 119?
Buccellati 117
Dansili Dancer 117
Camps Bay 117p
Mad Rush 116p
King Charles 116+p
Pevensey 116
Pippa Greene 116+p
Solent 115?
Eradicate 115
Carte Diamond 114++
Greek Envoy 114+
Record Breaker 114
The Last Drop ?(126? §)
This is one of my favourite handicaps of the season. Alfie Flits must have a shout if he can rediscover his best form but I just wonder if the yard has the Ebor in mind. On the other hand, a stable double with Turbo Linn (Lancashire Oaks) might be the plan. With cases against the other top rated contenders not difficult to put forward, it’s hard to look beyond the mid-table improvers for the answer, with preference for King Charles and Pippa Greene the more obvious candidates.
 
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As always good stuff, DO! Much appreciated.

My thoughts on the races you selected are:-

2.10. Can't have a horse at 2/1 or less in this type of race. I'd probably go for Ancien Regime if forced.

2.25 You've grabbed my attention. Will examine closely.

2.40 haven't solved this one but intrigued by your rating of Prince of Light a horse I monitor closely. I keep thinking that one day at the right weight he will scoot in. Like a mug I have been giving back in small amounts some of the substantial profits from his early days. I'd hate to miss the day he goes in as it will be at a decent price particularly on Betfair.

3.35 My short list would appear to agree with your views as I read them though I have a slight preference for Pippa Greene (Seen this one described as a she in some places but appears a colt with a femine name. odd.) King Charles will be mainly a place bet for me.

Anyway good luck!
 
Hope you backed Lovelace,DO. I did Masaalek but restricted stakes to account for jockey ,not one of my favourites.

Am concerned by soft going for Tombi
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but Samira Gold less tho wish it was good.
Going change bg benefit for Pippa Green - going in heavy on that one.
 
Nah, I decided to let it go. Mount Nelson got me my day's punting money returned but no profit. Ho hum.

I'm off to America on holiday on Tuesday so I probably won't be able to post anythng until about the 26th, although if there's a decent midweek meeting leading up to that weekend I'll be OK.
 
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