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Time to give up?
- Thread starter yorick
- Start date
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
What price u get Twinjets?
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Nah f%*& that if you know you're generally doing ok you have to take the bumps along the way. Like, let's say you're a 10% roi punter lifetime there's gonna be times when you might have bad losing seasons and there'll be times when you're ejaculating 6 months solid.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 28,061
You're just as likely to hit a hot streak soon, yorick.
'Nil desperandum,' wrote Horace.
The rest of the Broons weren't that articulate.
Spitters are quitters
Everyone has periods where it feels like they can't do anything right.
It doesn't matter if stats and spreadsheets are manna or kryptonite to you, there's maths you can't avoid re winning and losing runs relative to your strike rate.
I.e. over a sequence of 1000 bets
strike rate --- max potential losing run
20% --- 31
30% --- 19
40% --- 14
50% --- 10
These figures can be derived from a logs formula and checked via simulating the sequence of bets , which I built a thing to do and learned a lot about varying clustering of wins and losses which is useful when thinking about multis.
If you increase the sequence to 1000,000 you get what's likely to be worst case scenarios, which are worse than the figures above.
archie
Senior Jockey
One of our Cheltenham group had a day where every horse that he backed failed to complete including a faller in the bumper.
OMG. That puts my wingey spell into perspective, doesn't it? Unbelievable!
Hush my mouth haha!
4/1 for what it's worth lol
Ian_Davies
Conditional
Definitely.
Hope that helps.
#nomoremrniceguy
Joking aside, long-term winners tend to know they're long-term winners (they keep records for a start) so, assuming this is just another spectacular frustrated rant (you're famous for them), then obviously this is just a blip.
However, if you don't actually win long-term, I'm not quite sure why "the right thing to do" is to join the "supportive" chorus urging you to carry on.
If I was a long-term losing punter, I wouldn't bet - I don't have an addictive personality and I see zero "fun" in losing.
Summary: Carry on as normal if you win overall, but, if you are a long-term losing punter, quit altogether - or cut right back to minimal stakes for this weird thing some call "fun" - has to be the call here.
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Len Madeiros
Journeyman
I do have an addictive personality, and betting apps are too easy to play. So, my strategy has developed to having tiddly bets ranging from 50p to £2 a time. My losses are therefore restricted, and it’s still a bit of fun.
I permit myself blowouts at Cheltenham and Aintree, but most of my punting is controlled. The only time I have to watch myself is when I’m in a pub by myself; usually happens once a month. Sometimes I have a keen eye when pissed, but not, er, always.
I don’t think Yorick was wholly serious, btw.
I permit myself blowouts at Cheltenham and Aintree, but most of my punting is controlled. The only time I have to watch myself is when I’m in a pub by myself; usually happens once a month. Sometimes I have a keen eye when pissed, but not, er, always.
I don’t think Yorick was wholly serious, btw.
Two of the horses were Strong Promise and Decoupage who were High profile horses.
walsworth
Journeyman
It's days like that make me lose my discipline and start to back favourites blind, sometimes works but more often gets worse, far better to take a break.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 28,061
There aren't many things in this life for which I feel thankful - one of the reasons why my first act if I won the Euromillions would be to undergo a series of sessions with a psychologist - but one is that I do not have an addictive personality.
I'm not sure I would know what a betting app is and when I see ads on TV for 'Play Ojo' (or whatever it is) I do find myself thinking 'why would anybody do that'? I don't know if I could ever lay cards for proper money (I used to play brag on the school bus using my coupon-round commission but gave up after being cheated out of a decent pot in an interval-time game in one of the classrooms a teacher would let us use) but in a recent game in the Men's Shed, playing for tokens, I was told later and on the QT that I made a seasoned poker player a wee bit suspicious of me because of how I'd played (I cleaned them out) and they claimed I'd lied when I said I never played poker. My take was that they might have been a seasoned payer but they never struck me as being a good player.
I do a lot of crosswords (mainly the Times compilation books which Santa brings me every year) and that's maybe close to an addiction but the real addiction there is probably to do with making sure my brain is occupied and challenged - I am known in the family for being mentally challenged - and that's probably as much a reason as trying to win money that I spent so many years studying the form in depth.
I might, if watching racing on TV, find myself sticking a fiver or a tenner on something for the sake of a watching interest, usually something I've remembered about the runner from the past or a combination of positives I've picked up from watching the preliminaries or the betting, but 99% of the time Mrs O will ask me what I've backed and I'd honestly reply, 'Nothing, it isn't my kind of race.'
I do/did tend to bet fairly heavily - for me - at Cheltenham and Aintree. On a good Saturday card there is maybe two or three good betting races. A Cheltenham card can have five or six races in which I genuinely want to get involved so I can bet more than twice on one day what I might bet on a Saturday. 99% of them are trying so if I don't win I've only myself to reproach (unless they get a bad ride or are unlucky) for backing the wrong one.
Never, ever do I recall feeling the 'need' to have a bet, just as I have never, ever, felt the 'need' to have a drink. At Orchidette's wedding during the summer, I found after the meal that all I wanted to drink was water, water, water. It was a hot, humid day and I was very thirsty but the last thing I wanted was alcohol. (My body was probably telling me I was dehydrated.)
So, as I say, not having an addictive nature is one thing that I do genuinely feel thankful for.
Danny
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2013
- Messages
- 2,528
It might be a problem with math. It helps from a betting point of view if you can count. On a plus point there are only 4 losing bets there so maybe not as bad as you thought.
About giving up, you're right. I was being tongue in cheek. It was more a rant about those consecutive fallers. Usually I back horses that are good jumpers so my spectacular whingeing was really a "can you believe it?!?!"
One bet today: Transmission at Cheltenham.
In the words of the old Syd Bishop demolition company (remember them?): " Watch it come down!" Haha!
End of "Frustrated rant" Lol.
Danny
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2013
- Messages
- 2,528
Wincanton, of course.
I'll give you an absolute certainty, mate: Transmission will not fall.
