gigilo
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- May 5, 2011
- Messages
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I send these out and update through the season and send out stakes if they're in the right races,can't put to many up as they are paid for but here's a few that should make you a few quid.
1.FIREBEAM lost 1/3 early prices 4/5 won took 5/4
Ran today at donny and the time of the race compared favourably with the two 7f handicaps,firebeams maiden was run in 1m26.06 exactly the same time as the handicap won by 79 rated lord aeryn and the following handicap won by king of eden 1m25.91.Firebeam was given a lovely introduction by fallon,one crack and allowed to come home without being punished,with improvement to come and looking at the times firebeam looks a mid 80's horse already,so for the near future a maiden should be a formality and will be interesting to see how much it actually improves.Ran at swell and very disappointing but was no value and with it getting a mark back on turf could be exceptionally well handicapped.
Won yesterday at lingfield the mid 80s mark wasn't allowing for improvement so could be nice handicapper.
4.MAGIC CASEMENT
Looks like dandys been hiding this one away to pick up some easy cash today as this looks more like a group performer never mind running in nurseries,probably been waiting for the softer ground winning by 7ls and although given a proper race still managed to go under the time won by
captain raimus (87)runner up kyllachy star 91 later on the card.This would put magic casement in the mid 80s with the older horses,it also hadn't run for 85 days there must be more improvement to come.
Just to put in context the times yesterday wooton bassett rated 108 ran roughly the same time as 89 rated baby strange yet today magic casement running off 88 has achieved a very comparable performance with same rated horses,although his mark will shoot up this could be one of nicholls best 2 yr olds.
This was from last season and has not run since!!
5.PETER MARTIN
There have been lots of winners lately on this decent ground especially the richard fahey 2 yr olds infact up to half a dozen that look listed class but to put all these up to follow and not be able to seperate them is a bit pointless as they all look very similar,its better to wait for something that bit better and hopefully this is it.Since the runs of strong suit and elzaam clocked up in the same week i would hope this is near or maybe on a par with those named horses,perhaps not strong suit yet but this fella looks like one of the best 2yr olds this season.
The interesting thing to take from the race is the time only 2.21 seconds above standard over the 7fs,yet one race later the 6f sprint won by nosedive rated (90)was slower by 2.25 seconds over that furlong less suggesting this to be a decent time especially with the ease of the win.Back in second was colarado gold beaten an easy 5ls,its run previous to this he had beaten sonoran sands 2ls that particular horse went on to run a respectable 6th in a listed race beaten 5 1/2ls by toolain and 100 rated galtymore lad.The form becomes even more interesting when looking at the nursery amwell pinot contested the third in the above race,out of that nursery and all finishing behind amwell pinot lots of very interesting formlines. The third from that nursery rerouted had on debut been third to elzaam then followed up with its maiden win,the 4th sceal nua had won its maiden at kempton but interestingly on debut finished behind fifth commandment only on saturday winning off a matrk of 84,remembering sceal nua was getting 12 pounds off amwell point and 3ls behind it.
The form just looks even better as you go further down that nursery,witzend a further length back getting 16 pounds off amwell and a 4l beating had on its previous run been beaten a nk by majestic miles that horse just got touched off on saturday on a mark of (90).And if that wasn't enough the 7th singapore lily 10ls and recieving 9 pounds of amwell pinot was third to royal exchange(89) at goodwood in a nusery beaten 2 3/4ls.Taking all these formlines into account and peter martin is probably top class if coming on from that debut it's backed up by times and form through two horses that have themselves improved with step up in trips.
From last season.
6.PRESENT DANGER
A lovely looking filly and really imposing and infact i wouldn't be surprised if this filly turns out to be one if not the best filly in the stable,the filly looks visually impressive as well.Last september winning by 3 1/2ls couldve been 10ls a race later quest for success(99) won on the card running just over a second quicker,looking at both races present danger couldv'e given quest for success a race this makes this lovely filly a group performer.Dascombe had a nightmare season thats probably why she wasn't seen again,hopefully this season his fortunes will turnaround with the filly.The form of that hamilton race is interesting through magnini beaten 4 1/4ls,that gelding followed up this run by beating it's you againby 1 1/4ls that inturn has recently won off 84 and as mentioned present danger couldv'e won this by 10ls taken literally this puts present danger in the 100+ bracket.The filly could be a little bit special.
7.BAYBSHAMBLES lost 4th 11/1 Was fingers crossed this wouldn't go on the track tonight and infact may have just been out for the run with a future gamble in mind the horse is Baybshambles a few reasons that look like its ready to strike.This fella now sits on a mark of 66 its lowest since winning in june 2008 off exactly the same mark its recent wins have all been in may and june and its last two in the month of june off 66 and 68.
The majority of his bestform is at beverley where its record reads 4/7/4/1/2/1 even when beaten off its highest ever marks hs performed with credit there,the above race looks rock solid form.
The winner blue noodles boy has since run third off 80 in a very competitive hndicap at sandown,the third solemn has won off 74 by 4ls.Baybshambles was back in 4th behind in 5th was lucky dan that has since won twice its last win off 74 and the sixth select committee was beaten by lucky dan in that race off 68.When reverting back to its fav track as long as it has a reasonable draw baybshambles looks likely to be gambled back to its last winning mark or maybe even lower.
From last season yet to run at beverley plus dropped another 5 pounds,will be taking prices early when i see this entered up at beverley as its campaign and avoiding beverley was very strange last season.Ran today the 7th of april and if gone in a straight line wouldv'e won the race just hope this has gone un noticed for its future races only running off 58 could run up a sequence if they've got him spot on.
8.STRONG SUIT won 11/1 took 14/1 jersey stakes
After waiting ages for some outstanding 2 yr olds within 2 days comes another in the shape of strong suit and neeebras,the york race won by elzaam was the strongest and quickest formlines seen this season till one day later produced by these two.
The time was 1.12.73 only .67 slower than angels pursuit rated 111 beating society rock rated 107 earlier on the card again these two look to be heading to group races,just to back up the times on the card the other maiden div 1 won by memen was 2.21 seconds slower than that of the second division.Memen had already run and been beaten 4 1/2 ls by todays winner klammer that performance itself looked half decent the formlines of that newbury race and the time produced would suggest that these two are on paralell with elzaam if not better.These two races have been miles infront of anything produced so far,these two infact could be and are likely to be the strongest formlines so far this season,infact the latter looks even better than the formlines produced by elzaam.
Again this was my write up from strong suits debut run,this fella has still only had 4 runs and the last two i'm convinced that those weren't his running last season on the clock only frankel and whitemoonstone came out infront.On decent ground i can't see anyway that he won't be winning more races and still wouldn't be surprised if this is hannons best 3yr old.
9.ALIS AQUILAE lost 11/4 took 5/1
A very lightly raced sprinter first caught my eye when winning at beverley in july,running a quicker time than atlantic beach off the same weight but ruinning .65 seconds quicker which made it look quite well handicapped.A 6th at newmarket in same month in a far more competitive sprint only beaten 1 1/2ls ,three have come out of the first five from the race and won off higher marks and two others of the first five have also run well in being placed.Alis aquilae was the lowest rated from the first six,has only had 5 lifetime runs and open to improvement,interestingly only run on fast ground but out of captain rio may even run well on soft as well
18.PEGASUS AGAIN.lost 20/1
Pegasus again down to its lowest mark for 18 months showed it was back in form at kempton strangely sitting off the pace and not even ridden out to be close up 4th to big bay beaten 1/2length extremely eyecatching,Today was blatant ahern dropping it out strange tactic for a front runner and it looks blatant that its going to be aimed at some handicaps in the next few runs,again it will be overpriced relative to its chance,should be winning off this mark before this seasons out.It may even knock up a sequence off current mark.
This was off my aw to follows but hasn't run since it's so well handicapped that it maybe worth considering small bets on the turf as although its record not great on grass if it doesn't win on the aw and goes in on the turf at massive odds would be a gutter,it's certainly capable it's marks only 72 on grass its lowest ever mark.on actual turf.In 2009 it ran 3/78,1/78 and 4/81 so worth bearing in mind especially if running at windsor those runs off 78 were both there so obviously suits the horses running style and with no recent form would be huge prices in handicaps which you could play for coppers
35.PAVERSHOOZ lost 25/1
This fella today opened his seasonal debut and didn't show anything really what i was hoping as i wanted to put it up for the season,the geldings dropped now to a mark of 85 lowest since june/july 2009 when around this mark ran its best races winning off 80,84 second off 86 then winning off 88 this took his mark into the 90s where he then struggled.Showing very little in 2010 till again july time when second at ayr off 87 having horses in 90s and 100s in behind,he then followed this up in the great st winifred coming 8th of 17 off 91 but was second on the stand side so still a good run and beating numerous horses in high 90s and 100s probably one if not its best run.All his wins have come on straight tracks and five from the six over the 5fs currently sitting on a mark of 85 with another drop likely around the months of june onwards this fella may well be worth following at some big prices and also has the ability to pick up a very decent sprint off these mark.
43.ICEBLAST.
44.JADE. placed 7/4 took 7/2 lost 4/1
These two were first and second at thirsk on the 30th of april over 6fs,.. iceblast had looked well handicapped on its debut last year looking at the times of the maidens before disappointing at doncaster,unlucky at musselburgh but winning cosily here off 72 been pushed up to a mark of 80 now but still looks like winning off this mark.The second jade was making its seasonal debut and looked totally outpaced infact watching the race looked beat 2fs into the race before again staying on related to ashdown express may get 7fs as well and in the short term looks well up to winning at least once,the most important thing with these two is pace as both looked beat early on in the race but ended up 1,2.The thing that makes the form look a little more solid oldjoesaid(79) won the 5f 15 runner sprint in a standard time of
slow by 3.09 as opposed to the 3yr olds 6f race slow by 3.19 so the time looks good as well and already the 4th another wise kid has franked the form although that was a weak race.At least till the bigger stables are out these two should win more races
48.FREE FOR ALL
A cracking seasonal debut winning a handicap off 82 this fella is open to loads of improvement with only the three previous runs and infact hadn't run for 13 months and previous to that another seven months yet came out today winning by 3 1/2ls.Quite interesting he came out of a maiden on debut finishing sixth behind side glance rated 106,suited and booted 96 and dever dream 105 and suited and booted had already had a run.The way this field was spread eagled this fella looks listed class and on his way should pick up another handicap or two,there is a great comparison to make on the card as well with the earlier group 3.
The first race on the card today was won by 3 yr old perfect tribute in 1m20.05 running off 98 carrying 8-5 previous to this run breaking the 3yr old track record at ascot,flambeau running off 107 and carrying 9-3 was 1/34ls behind with pyrrah 105 another 1 3/4ls behind in third.The handicap won by free for all 9-5 was won in 1m21.06
a second slower than the group race yet only 3 1/4ls slower than flambeau equivalent of 7 pounds yet the difference in ratings was 25 pounds and with all the other higher rated runners in the group 3 even further beind plus the spread eagled handicap free for all looks at least listed class and produced an incredible performace after a years lay off.Hopefully this won't be a one off as this fella could easily be overlooked and could be a decent bet whatever races he contends and being the first run of the season i may have underestimated but for the time being any appearence in a handicap should be bet and even listed races as will be a very decent price.
51.WISE VENTURE won 5/2 took 5/2
52.POOLE HARBOUR
53.TRUMPET MAJOR won took 8/11
54.ST BARTHS won 2/5 3rd in coventry 14/1
55.FOREST ROW.
Although not a spectacular race time wise it may turn out to be pretty good compared to the majority of the maidens that have been run,the race was 2 seconds slower than elzaam winning off 107 later on the card off the same distance elzamm won by 6ls making the maiden look better time wise and with improvement to come i think there will be winners and possibly group runners from this race.Wise venture stuck on well and ran a genuine race as did poole harbour,showede loads of speed and related to lots of 5f winners probably will take a lot of beating over the 5fs as travelled the best in this race till the last furlong.The hannon horse appeared to have no excuses and was ridden out by hughes these three were very evenly matched.Two that looked unlucky were the brian meehan trained
st barths cruising throughout the race before getting sandwiched when coming to win the race,not a lot of sprinting in the pedigree and infact bred to be pretty decent over 8f-1mile but on this performance will be winning over 6fs and if nothing comes out of over the next few weeks 2 yr old wise maybe an outsider worth betting at the bigger meetings.The other eye catching runner was the clive cox trained forest row outpaced for the first couple of furlongs but made relentless progress and was also hampered another furlong wouldv'e beaten even the unlucky st barths but this half brother to presvis looks decent very similar to the barry hills horse that finished 4th behind magic city. Again very little sprinting in the pedigree but a stiff 6f at a higher level may just see this fella compete at ascot will certainly be one for the 7fs plus races later in the season,this maiden i will be keeping a close eye on as i think it may just be better than first looks
64.SHUMOOS.
.Impressive debut winning by 4 1/2ls and this filly costing $375,000 may just pay it back normally i wouldn't use comparisons against 3yr old handicaps but this season times have been slow and i think using apaces win in the following race is worth using as a guide.When miss work of art ran at york she ran roughly a length quicker than apace on the same day if they'd run off levels,today shumoos ran 1m1.18 as opposed to apaces win of 1.0.80 shumoos running .38 slower but this was her debut run and absolutely hacked up she could easily be on a par with miss work of art probably better.I think its worth having a look at her entries and maybe having a little ante post bet on wherever she runs as the 2yr olds have been so poor we're almost in june and at this moment in time she must be on a par with anything thats run so far so i think its worth the risk.Miss work of art is 6/1 fav for the queen mary which will make it interesting looking for prices for this filly which could be the best around at least over the 5fs.
65.MEZMAAR
66.FORT BASTION.
Just backtracking through todays times at haydock and last nights the going was virtually the same today as the previous night so may have found a gem in mezmaar and fort bastion,today show rainbow off 98 won in 1m13.88 carrying 8-9 last night mezmaar won easily in 1m14.42 carrying 9-3 only .54 slower but almost the same time at the weights plus improvement to come.Costing 120,000 guineas and related to loads of top class sprinters i've just checked the coverntry prices and its been put in as 8/1 3rd fav hardly surprising on this performance as show rainbow and ladies forever both in the haydock race today had been competing well in listed races and even running in group races.The second fort bastion 95,000 gns related to group winner captain marvellous and listed winners looks a surefire thing to be winning group races over further from whats run this season,trumpet majors race was the best maiden seen of late,these two must be at least on a par if not better.
Come ascot and the forthcoming weeks will be backing these and shamooz as they look certain group winners of whats run so far this season.
67.SIR GLANTON.
Normally there would be so many races in the 2yr old winners with these sort of times that it would be left off,any other season there would be 20-30 winners with similart times but this season this race gets in the top half a dozen as comparison wise looks good.The earlier race won by alfresco was run in 1m12.16 and an hour later sir glanton ran 1m12.68 carrying 4 pounds more only .52 slower thats 3 lengths but giving 4 pounds,this run looking at the runs of most of the winners this season would suggest this fella to be listed class and with amanda perrett not known for her 2yr olds this will definitely go off overpriced in future when raised in grade.These are the sorts that i want on a to follows, horses overpriced and underestimated by compilers,which it almost definitely will.
68.IFRAAM
Looks half decent £60,000 purchase for michael dods and i imagine he rarely purchases 2yr old at this expense unless pretty sure of some return,had to race on the outer of the field against the advantage of the running rail i watched this waiting tylicki to go for the whip yet just kept pushing and probably couldv'e won given a crack,a very nice introduction.The time was only .94 slower than elusive princes race and 1.90 slower than addictive dreams but that was a decent race and they were spread out,as i've mentioned before this will probably be a very good handicapper and may even go for some of the conditions or listed races at the northern tracks.
With fahey and hanagan around and dods 2yr olds not being the most fashionable to be betting as a few i've added on recently this fella may just get underestimated and be overpriced,his pedigree looks as though he wants futher so maybe even better over longer trips,but for the time being will be throwing a few coppers at him when raised in class.As long as these slow times keep being produced amongst the yr ols no reason why this fella shouldn't win races.
69.ACT YOUR SHOE SIZE
70.PINT SIZE. won took evens
Very strange this and i can't explain it and will be careful when backing these two but i will be backing them,these two came from a seller today finishing 1,2 but the incredible thing was the time 59.28,thirty five minutes later the class 3 handicap was won by 80 rated lost in paris and although carrying a lot more weight the winner of the 2yr old race was quicker lost in paris running 59.32.I've checked the sites to see if there was any rain there and it was a perfect day there and also the 5.35 race was won in 1m.55 by rothesay chancer over two seconds slower if these times are borne out the two year olds are going to be very much underestimated and the winner has progress to come being its debut.Just to put into perspective no 2yr old race this season has been quicker than 80 rated older horses on debut,i will be slightly wary but two races back up the time pint sizes form previously was very poor perhaps the 5f improved it and the real bonus is as long as this does work out the prices of these two coming out of a seller are going to be miles out on there true chances of winning.Will be looking for dead ground for the pair as the times were pretty much standard and act your shoe size potentially could be thrown in a weak listed race and be a huge price after winning a seller,there pedigrees are very poor so will be interesting to see if this race works out,especially the winner.
71.CHANDLERY
72.COUPE DE VILLE. won 11/4
For some reason it looks like all the best 2yr olds have been saved for end of may and june as this last two weeks i seem to have a clutch of them and its going to be hard to seperate them but likewise nice to know which are the ones worth backing.Tonight at goodwood the 1,2 both trained by hannon clocked up 1m11.13 a sh'hd seperating them and hughes choosing the wrong one,backed up by class 3 handicap by poppy seed winning off 88 in 1m10.86 only .27 quicker than the 2yr olds and
with improvement to come they look potential group horses this being one of the quickest races of the season.Chandlery £88,000 out of a dam related to numerouswinners over a variety of distances could be worth watching as long term prospect as well with more stamina influences and coupe de ville
82,000 guineas again the dam related to winners over a variety of distances and another to keep on the list long term.There should be better to come from these two
i now have a plethora of 2yr old and really could do with no more till the autumn comes and softer ground horses needed to be looked for.It's alright having quite a few but want to see them in all different races.I'd keep an eye out on big race entries on the ones i've given out over the last week as there will be some big prices floating around,with so much work i hardly get the chance to check all the books so its to your benefit to check around you may just see something crazily overpriced,as we now have the best 2yr olds on this list!!
73.FREDERICK ENGELS.won windor castle 5/2 took 4/1
Yet another 2yr old to add to the list and would be impossible to leave this off david brown is a trainer i like i've had horses like fitz flyer and lenny bee on my lists before as he's pretty shrewd with sprinters and he hasn't had one for a while,the clock didn't lie today as this was the quickest performance on track by any 2yr old seen this season.Although it looked a very weak race on form the time clocked by the winner may show it was probably better than its previous runs even though getting slaughtered by another of mine shamoos fav for the queen mary,i think this fella is a listed winner already and could win a group race on this performance.
The 3yr old handicap was won by barnet fair off 7-11 in 58.28 frederick engels won in 58.02 carrying 8-11 14 pounds more and hacking up and just to back that time up as the quickest this season ran quicker than the class 2 older handicappers they ran 58.13 all horses rated in high 80s and 90s no other 2yr old has done that this season of yet and as long as avoiding a few on this list will simplify having a bet as the list now has at least half a dozen good ones on the clock although very difficult to split them as like frederick engels may improve dramatically with improvement.It's very interesting to read my werite up on shumoos as the haydock run shumoos was slower than horses through formlines with the 3yr olds that ran in the first at musselburugh yet todat frederick engels has given those same horses weight and a real beating yet he got murdered by shumoos it just makes me wonder if this horse of david browns was a lot better than that haydock run.Shumoos is now 3/1 to win the queen mary which for me is to short although could be something special,but in comparison i'd rather back frederick enegels at a price underestimated in a listed race etc taking on the bigger trainers.Lo oks an interesting runner to me.
74.KENSEI.
Won at thirsk on may 13th this 4yr old has only had the ten runs and this was its best ever run winning off 72 over the mile,in behind the 2nd,3rd,4th were running off marks of 82,84,85 and the 4th barren brook off 76 the 2nd and third havn't franked the form but barren brook has winning a big field handicap by 3 1/2ls.There was another reason to believe this could be decent form as extraterrestrial won on the same card over c'd winning off 83 in 1m40.21 by 4 1/2ls carrying 9-7 while kensei won in 1.39.34 off 8-12 .87 quicker that 9 pound difference putting them on roughly the same time. Also kensei was eased in this race so even though his mark will rise sharply may still be open to improvement,infact i've just checked new mark and put onto 80 so at least for the near future one to keep onside.
75.CHURCH MUSIC.
For some reason i havn't got any 2yr olds of kevin ryans on here but similar to shumoos debut hacking up at york winning by 1 3/4ls but couldv'e been another 5ls on top,time was reasonable even though eased as mentioned the older handicap won by medici time was 1.37 seconds quicker but if you allow for the distance church music couldv'e won by wouldn't have been far behind the older horses.At the moment i would say only listed class,plus there's quite a few on here now to sort through but will be backing it at some point but could easily progress into a group horse certainly one to have on side as we get into autumn/winter months
1.FIREBEAM lost 1/3 early prices 4/5 won took 5/4
Ran today at donny and the time of the race compared favourably with the two 7f handicaps,firebeams maiden was run in 1m26.06 exactly the same time as the handicap won by 79 rated lord aeryn and the following handicap won by king of eden 1m25.91.Firebeam was given a lovely introduction by fallon,one crack and allowed to come home without being punished,with improvement to come and looking at the times firebeam looks a mid 80's horse already,so for the near future a maiden should be a formality and will be interesting to see how much it actually improves.Ran at swell and very disappointing but was no value and with it getting a mark back on turf could be exceptionally well handicapped.
Won yesterday at lingfield the mid 80s mark wasn't allowing for improvement so could be nice handicapper.
4.MAGIC CASEMENT
Looks like dandys been hiding this one away to pick up some easy cash today as this looks more like a group performer never mind running in nurseries,probably been waiting for the softer ground winning by 7ls and although given a proper race still managed to go under the time won by
captain raimus (87)runner up kyllachy star 91 later on the card.This would put magic casement in the mid 80s with the older horses,it also hadn't run for 85 days there must be more improvement to come.
Just to put in context the times yesterday wooton bassett rated 108 ran roughly the same time as 89 rated baby strange yet today magic casement running off 88 has achieved a very comparable performance with same rated horses,although his mark will shoot up this could be one of nicholls best 2 yr olds.
This was from last season and has not run since!!
5.PETER MARTIN
There have been lots of winners lately on this decent ground especially the richard fahey 2 yr olds infact up to half a dozen that look listed class but to put all these up to follow and not be able to seperate them is a bit pointless as they all look very similar,its better to wait for something that bit better and hopefully this is it.Since the runs of strong suit and elzaam clocked up in the same week i would hope this is near or maybe on a par with those named horses,perhaps not strong suit yet but this fella looks like one of the best 2yr olds this season.
The interesting thing to take from the race is the time only 2.21 seconds above standard over the 7fs,yet one race later the 6f sprint won by nosedive rated (90)was slower by 2.25 seconds over that furlong less suggesting this to be a decent time especially with the ease of the win.Back in second was colarado gold beaten an easy 5ls,its run previous to this he had beaten sonoran sands 2ls that particular horse went on to run a respectable 6th in a listed race beaten 5 1/2ls by toolain and 100 rated galtymore lad.The form becomes even more interesting when looking at the nursery amwell pinot contested the third in the above race,out of that nursery and all finishing behind amwell pinot lots of very interesting formlines. The third from that nursery rerouted had on debut been third to elzaam then followed up with its maiden win,the 4th sceal nua had won its maiden at kempton but interestingly on debut finished behind fifth commandment only on saturday winning off a matrk of 84,remembering sceal nua was getting 12 pounds off amwell point and 3ls behind it.
The form just looks even better as you go further down that nursery,witzend a further length back getting 16 pounds off amwell and a 4l beating had on its previous run been beaten a nk by majestic miles that horse just got touched off on saturday on a mark of (90).And if that wasn't enough the 7th singapore lily 10ls and recieving 9 pounds of amwell pinot was third to royal exchange(89) at goodwood in a nusery beaten 2 3/4ls.Taking all these formlines into account and peter martin is probably top class if coming on from that debut it's backed up by times and form through two horses that have themselves improved with step up in trips.
From last season.
6.PRESENT DANGER
A lovely looking filly and really imposing and infact i wouldn't be surprised if this filly turns out to be one if not the best filly in the stable,the filly looks visually impressive as well.Last september winning by 3 1/2ls couldve been 10ls a race later quest for success(99) won on the card running just over a second quicker,looking at both races present danger couldv'e given quest for success a race this makes this lovely filly a group performer.Dascombe had a nightmare season thats probably why she wasn't seen again,hopefully this season his fortunes will turnaround with the filly.The form of that hamilton race is interesting through magnini beaten 4 1/4ls,that gelding followed up this run by beating it's you againby 1 1/4ls that inturn has recently won off 84 and as mentioned present danger couldv'e won this by 10ls taken literally this puts present danger in the 100+ bracket.The filly could be a little bit special.
7.BAYBSHAMBLES lost 4th 11/1 Was fingers crossed this wouldn't go on the track tonight and infact may have just been out for the run with a future gamble in mind the horse is Baybshambles a few reasons that look like its ready to strike.This fella now sits on a mark of 66 its lowest since winning in june 2008 off exactly the same mark its recent wins have all been in may and june and its last two in the month of june off 66 and 68.
The majority of his bestform is at beverley where its record reads 4/7/4/1/2/1 even when beaten off its highest ever marks hs performed with credit there,the above race looks rock solid form.
The winner blue noodles boy has since run third off 80 in a very competitive hndicap at sandown,the third solemn has won off 74 by 4ls.Baybshambles was back in 4th behind in 5th was lucky dan that has since won twice its last win off 74 and the sixth select committee was beaten by lucky dan in that race off 68.When reverting back to its fav track as long as it has a reasonable draw baybshambles looks likely to be gambled back to its last winning mark or maybe even lower.
From last season yet to run at beverley plus dropped another 5 pounds,will be taking prices early when i see this entered up at beverley as its campaign and avoiding beverley was very strange last season.Ran today the 7th of april and if gone in a straight line wouldv'e won the race just hope this has gone un noticed for its future races only running off 58 could run up a sequence if they've got him spot on.
8.STRONG SUIT won 11/1 took 14/1 jersey stakes
After waiting ages for some outstanding 2 yr olds within 2 days comes another in the shape of strong suit and neeebras,the york race won by elzaam was the strongest and quickest formlines seen this season till one day later produced by these two.
The time was 1.12.73 only .67 slower than angels pursuit rated 111 beating society rock rated 107 earlier on the card again these two look to be heading to group races,just to back up the times on the card the other maiden div 1 won by memen was 2.21 seconds slower than that of the second division.Memen had already run and been beaten 4 1/2 ls by todays winner klammer that performance itself looked half decent the formlines of that newbury race and the time produced would suggest that these two are on paralell with elzaam if not better.These two races have been miles infront of anything produced so far,these two infact could be and are likely to be the strongest formlines so far this season,infact the latter looks even better than the formlines produced by elzaam.
Again this was my write up from strong suits debut run,this fella has still only had 4 runs and the last two i'm convinced that those weren't his running last season on the clock only frankel and whitemoonstone came out infront.On decent ground i can't see anyway that he won't be winning more races and still wouldn't be surprised if this is hannons best 3yr old.
9.ALIS AQUILAE lost 11/4 took 5/1
A very lightly raced sprinter first caught my eye when winning at beverley in july,running a quicker time than atlantic beach off the same weight but ruinning .65 seconds quicker which made it look quite well handicapped.A 6th at newmarket in same month in a far more competitive sprint only beaten 1 1/2ls ,three have come out of the first five from the race and won off higher marks and two others of the first five have also run well in being placed.Alis aquilae was the lowest rated from the first six,has only had 5 lifetime runs and open to improvement,interestingly only run on fast ground but out of captain rio may even run well on soft as well
18.PEGASUS AGAIN.lost 20/1
Pegasus again down to its lowest mark for 18 months showed it was back in form at kempton strangely sitting off the pace and not even ridden out to be close up 4th to big bay beaten 1/2length extremely eyecatching,Today was blatant ahern dropping it out strange tactic for a front runner and it looks blatant that its going to be aimed at some handicaps in the next few runs,again it will be overpriced relative to its chance,should be winning off this mark before this seasons out.It may even knock up a sequence off current mark.
This was off my aw to follows but hasn't run since it's so well handicapped that it maybe worth considering small bets on the turf as although its record not great on grass if it doesn't win on the aw and goes in on the turf at massive odds would be a gutter,it's certainly capable it's marks only 72 on grass its lowest ever mark.on actual turf.In 2009 it ran 3/78,1/78 and 4/81 so worth bearing in mind especially if running at windsor those runs off 78 were both there so obviously suits the horses running style and with no recent form would be huge prices in handicaps which you could play for coppers
35.PAVERSHOOZ lost 25/1
This fella today opened his seasonal debut and didn't show anything really what i was hoping as i wanted to put it up for the season,the geldings dropped now to a mark of 85 lowest since june/july 2009 when around this mark ran its best races winning off 80,84 second off 86 then winning off 88 this took his mark into the 90s where he then struggled.Showing very little in 2010 till again july time when second at ayr off 87 having horses in 90s and 100s in behind,he then followed this up in the great st winifred coming 8th of 17 off 91 but was second on the stand side so still a good run and beating numerous horses in high 90s and 100s probably one if not its best run.All his wins have come on straight tracks and five from the six over the 5fs currently sitting on a mark of 85 with another drop likely around the months of june onwards this fella may well be worth following at some big prices and also has the ability to pick up a very decent sprint off these mark.
43.ICEBLAST.
44.JADE. placed 7/4 took 7/2 lost 4/1
These two were first and second at thirsk on the 30th of april over 6fs,.. iceblast had looked well handicapped on its debut last year looking at the times of the maidens before disappointing at doncaster,unlucky at musselburgh but winning cosily here off 72 been pushed up to a mark of 80 now but still looks like winning off this mark.The second jade was making its seasonal debut and looked totally outpaced infact watching the race looked beat 2fs into the race before again staying on related to ashdown express may get 7fs as well and in the short term looks well up to winning at least once,the most important thing with these two is pace as both looked beat early on in the race but ended up 1,2.The thing that makes the form look a little more solid oldjoesaid(79) won the 5f 15 runner sprint in a standard time of
slow by 3.09 as opposed to the 3yr olds 6f race slow by 3.19 so the time looks good as well and already the 4th another wise kid has franked the form although that was a weak race.At least till the bigger stables are out these two should win more races
48.FREE FOR ALL
A cracking seasonal debut winning a handicap off 82 this fella is open to loads of improvement with only the three previous runs and infact hadn't run for 13 months and previous to that another seven months yet came out today winning by 3 1/2ls.Quite interesting he came out of a maiden on debut finishing sixth behind side glance rated 106,suited and booted 96 and dever dream 105 and suited and booted had already had a run.The way this field was spread eagled this fella looks listed class and on his way should pick up another handicap or two,there is a great comparison to make on the card as well with the earlier group 3.
The first race on the card today was won by 3 yr old perfect tribute in 1m20.05 running off 98 carrying 8-5 previous to this run breaking the 3yr old track record at ascot,flambeau running off 107 and carrying 9-3 was 1/34ls behind with pyrrah 105 another 1 3/4ls behind in third.The handicap won by free for all 9-5 was won in 1m21.06
a second slower than the group race yet only 3 1/4ls slower than flambeau equivalent of 7 pounds yet the difference in ratings was 25 pounds and with all the other higher rated runners in the group 3 even further beind plus the spread eagled handicap free for all looks at least listed class and produced an incredible performace after a years lay off.Hopefully this won't be a one off as this fella could easily be overlooked and could be a decent bet whatever races he contends and being the first run of the season i may have underestimated but for the time being any appearence in a handicap should be bet and even listed races as will be a very decent price.
51.WISE VENTURE won 5/2 took 5/2
52.POOLE HARBOUR
53.TRUMPET MAJOR won took 8/11
54.ST BARTHS won 2/5 3rd in coventry 14/1
55.FOREST ROW.
Although not a spectacular race time wise it may turn out to be pretty good compared to the majority of the maidens that have been run,the race was 2 seconds slower than elzaam winning off 107 later on the card off the same distance elzamm won by 6ls making the maiden look better time wise and with improvement to come i think there will be winners and possibly group runners from this race.Wise venture stuck on well and ran a genuine race as did poole harbour,showede loads of speed and related to lots of 5f winners probably will take a lot of beating over the 5fs as travelled the best in this race till the last furlong.The hannon horse appeared to have no excuses and was ridden out by hughes these three were very evenly matched.Two that looked unlucky were the brian meehan trained
st barths cruising throughout the race before getting sandwiched when coming to win the race,not a lot of sprinting in the pedigree and infact bred to be pretty decent over 8f-1mile but on this performance will be winning over 6fs and if nothing comes out of over the next few weeks 2 yr old wise maybe an outsider worth betting at the bigger meetings.The other eye catching runner was the clive cox trained forest row outpaced for the first couple of furlongs but made relentless progress and was also hampered another furlong wouldv'e beaten even the unlucky st barths but this half brother to presvis looks decent very similar to the barry hills horse that finished 4th behind magic city. Again very little sprinting in the pedigree but a stiff 6f at a higher level may just see this fella compete at ascot will certainly be one for the 7fs plus races later in the season,this maiden i will be keeping a close eye on as i think it may just be better than first looks
64.SHUMOOS.
.Impressive debut winning by 4 1/2ls and this filly costing $375,000 may just pay it back normally i wouldn't use comparisons against 3yr old handicaps but this season times have been slow and i think using apaces win in the following race is worth using as a guide.When miss work of art ran at york she ran roughly a length quicker than apace on the same day if they'd run off levels,today shumoos ran 1m1.18 as opposed to apaces win of 1.0.80 shumoos running .38 slower but this was her debut run and absolutely hacked up she could easily be on a par with miss work of art probably better.I think its worth having a look at her entries and maybe having a little ante post bet on wherever she runs as the 2yr olds have been so poor we're almost in june and at this moment in time she must be on a par with anything thats run so far so i think its worth the risk.Miss work of art is 6/1 fav for the queen mary which will make it interesting looking for prices for this filly which could be the best around at least over the 5fs.
65.MEZMAAR
66.FORT BASTION.
Just backtracking through todays times at haydock and last nights the going was virtually the same today as the previous night so may have found a gem in mezmaar and fort bastion,today show rainbow off 98 won in 1m13.88 carrying 8-9 last night mezmaar won easily in 1m14.42 carrying 9-3 only .54 slower but almost the same time at the weights plus improvement to come.Costing 120,000 guineas and related to loads of top class sprinters i've just checked the coverntry prices and its been put in as 8/1 3rd fav hardly surprising on this performance as show rainbow and ladies forever both in the haydock race today had been competing well in listed races and even running in group races.The second fort bastion 95,000 gns related to group winner captain marvellous and listed winners looks a surefire thing to be winning group races over further from whats run this season,trumpet majors race was the best maiden seen of late,these two must be at least on a par if not better.
Come ascot and the forthcoming weeks will be backing these and shamooz as they look certain group winners of whats run so far this season.
67.SIR GLANTON.
Normally there would be so many races in the 2yr old winners with these sort of times that it would be left off,any other season there would be 20-30 winners with similart times but this season this race gets in the top half a dozen as comparison wise looks good.The earlier race won by alfresco was run in 1m12.16 and an hour later sir glanton ran 1m12.68 carrying 4 pounds more only .52 slower thats 3 lengths but giving 4 pounds,this run looking at the runs of most of the winners this season would suggest this fella to be listed class and with amanda perrett not known for her 2yr olds this will definitely go off overpriced in future when raised in grade.These are the sorts that i want on a to follows, horses overpriced and underestimated by compilers,which it almost definitely will.
68.IFRAAM
Looks half decent £60,000 purchase for michael dods and i imagine he rarely purchases 2yr old at this expense unless pretty sure of some return,had to race on the outer of the field against the advantage of the running rail i watched this waiting tylicki to go for the whip yet just kept pushing and probably couldv'e won given a crack,a very nice introduction.The time was only .94 slower than elusive princes race and 1.90 slower than addictive dreams but that was a decent race and they were spread out,as i've mentioned before this will probably be a very good handicapper and may even go for some of the conditions or listed races at the northern tracks.
With fahey and hanagan around and dods 2yr olds not being the most fashionable to be betting as a few i've added on recently this fella may just get underestimated and be overpriced,his pedigree looks as though he wants futher so maybe even better over longer trips,but for the time being will be throwing a few coppers at him when raised in class.As long as these slow times keep being produced amongst the yr ols no reason why this fella shouldn't win races.
69.ACT YOUR SHOE SIZE
70.PINT SIZE. won took evens
Very strange this and i can't explain it and will be careful when backing these two but i will be backing them,these two came from a seller today finishing 1,2 but the incredible thing was the time 59.28,thirty five minutes later the class 3 handicap was won by 80 rated lost in paris and although carrying a lot more weight the winner of the 2yr old race was quicker lost in paris running 59.32.I've checked the sites to see if there was any rain there and it was a perfect day there and also the 5.35 race was won in 1m.55 by rothesay chancer over two seconds slower if these times are borne out the two year olds are going to be very much underestimated and the winner has progress to come being its debut.Just to put into perspective no 2yr old race this season has been quicker than 80 rated older horses on debut,i will be slightly wary but two races back up the time pint sizes form previously was very poor perhaps the 5f improved it and the real bonus is as long as this does work out the prices of these two coming out of a seller are going to be miles out on there true chances of winning.Will be looking for dead ground for the pair as the times were pretty much standard and act your shoe size potentially could be thrown in a weak listed race and be a huge price after winning a seller,there pedigrees are very poor so will be interesting to see if this race works out,especially the winner.
71.CHANDLERY
72.COUPE DE VILLE. won 11/4
For some reason it looks like all the best 2yr olds have been saved for end of may and june as this last two weeks i seem to have a clutch of them and its going to be hard to seperate them but likewise nice to know which are the ones worth backing.Tonight at goodwood the 1,2 both trained by hannon clocked up 1m11.13 a sh'hd seperating them and hughes choosing the wrong one,backed up by class 3 handicap by poppy seed winning off 88 in 1m10.86 only .27 quicker than the 2yr olds and
with improvement to come they look potential group horses this being one of the quickest races of the season.Chandlery £88,000 out of a dam related to numerouswinners over a variety of distances could be worth watching as long term prospect as well with more stamina influences and coupe de ville
82,000 guineas again the dam related to winners over a variety of distances and another to keep on the list long term.There should be better to come from these two
i now have a plethora of 2yr old and really could do with no more till the autumn comes and softer ground horses needed to be looked for.It's alright having quite a few but want to see them in all different races.I'd keep an eye out on big race entries on the ones i've given out over the last week as there will be some big prices floating around,with so much work i hardly get the chance to check all the books so its to your benefit to check around you may just see something crazily overpriced,as we now have the best 2yr olds on this list!!
73.FREDERICK ENGELS.won windor castle 5/2 took 4/1
Yet another 2yr old to add to the list and would be impossible to leave this off david brown is a trainer i like i've had horses like fitz flyer and lenny bee on my lists before as he's pretty shrewd with sprinters and he hasn't had one for a while,the clock didn't lie today as this was the quickest performance on track by any 2yr old seen this season.Although it looked a very weak race on form the time clocked by the winner may show it was probably better than its previous runs even though getting slaughtered by another of mine shamoos fav for the queen mary,i think this fella is a listed winner already and could win a group race on this performance.
The 3yr old handicap was won by barnet fair off 7-11 in 58.28 frederick engels won in 58.02 carrying 8-11 14 pounds more and hacking up and just to back that time up as the quickest this season ran quicker than the class 2 older handicappers they ran 58.13 all horses rated in high 80s and 90s no other 2yr old has done that this season of yet and as long as avoiding a few on this list will simplify having a bet as the list now has at least half a dozen good ones on the clock although very difficult to split them as like frederick engels may improve dramatically with improvement.It's very interesting to read my werite up on shumoos as the haydock run shumoos was slower than horses through formlines with the 3yr olds that ran in the first at musselburugh yet todat frederick engels has given those same horses weight and a real beating yet he got murdered by shumoos it just makes me wonder if this horse of david browns was a lot better than that haydock run.Shumoos is now 3/1 to win the queen mary which for me is to short although could be something special,but in comparison i'd rather back frederick enegels at a price underestimated in a listed race etc taking on the bigger trainers.Lo oks an interesting runner to me.
74.KENSEI.
Won at thirsk on may 13th this 4yr old has only had the ten runs and this was its best ever run winning off 72 over the mile,in behind the 2nd,3rd,4th were running off marks of 82,84,85 and the 4th barren brook off 76 the 2nd and third havn't franked the form but barren brook has winning a big field handicap by 3 1/2ls.There was another reason to believe this could be decent form as extraterrestrial won on the same card over c'd winning off 83 in 1m40.21 by 4 1/2ls carrying 9-7 while kensei won in 1.39.34 off 8-12 .87 quicker that 9 pound difference putting them on roughly the same time. Also kensei was eased in this race so even though his mark will rise sharply may still be open to improvement,infact i've just checked new mark and put onto 80 so at least for the near future one to keep onside.
75.CHURCH MUSIC.
For some reason i havn't got any 2yr olds of kevin ryans on here but similar to shumoos debut hacking up at york winning by 1 3/4ls but couldv'e been another 5ls on top,time was reasonable even though eased as mentioned the older handicap won by medici time was 1.37 seconds quicker but if you allow for the distance church music couldv'e won by wouldn't have been far behind the older horses.At the moment i would say only listed class,plus there's quite a few on here now to sort through but will be backing it at some point but could easily progress into a group horse certainly one to have on side as we get into autumn/winter months
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