Today's fancies

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
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What do y'all fancy today? I'm out most of the morning so have had to get the bets on early.

Chester: I like to look most closely at low drawns that like to front run so I've taken Glamorous Spirit in the 2.25. I had the stablemate as the other likelihood and hope they can carve this up between them. The 2.55 doesn't seem that hot and nothing gets within 5lbs of the norm on current form. Keenes Day is jt-top on the assumption (always risky) he'd have dead-heated for first last time. If he'd won outright he'd be clear so he's the bet. In the 3.30 Celtic Sultan is lobbed in on last year's best form. Now that the stable has hit form, this one might run a big race.

Sandown: Only one race interests me, the 3.15. It's not very competitive if this year's form is anything to go by but but there are a few improvers and if some of the older ones could recapture their form of last year they could find themselves very well treated at today's weights. I've gone with the latter group and now that Hughie Morrison's yard is flying, Supaseus (took 25/1 last night) could take advantage of his big drop in the ORs. The same could be said of Unshakable but he's much less predictable but he's something like 5lbs lower than his last winning mark, which would make 50s far too big. Night Crescendo hit form about this time last season and is another who's been tumbling down the weights but he showed signs of recovery last time. I've saved on one of the improvers, Antinori. Noted as looking awkward last time, they've put cheekpieces on him and he gets in at the bottom of the handicap with a decent claimer.
 
My take on the day's Irish feature:


4.50 - Galileo European Breeders Fund Futurity Stakes (Group 2) (2YO)
A race that boasts an illustrious array of previous winners, with six of the last ten winners going on to achieve Group 1 success. Not surprisingly, five of them were trained by Aidan O'Brien, the last coming in 2005 with the ill-fated Horatio Nelson. Ballydoyle again look to hold a strong hand, with Cape Blanco the most likely of three Coolmore charges to add to O’Brien’s impressive tally.

Cape Blanco (JP Murtagh): Followed up debut victory in 6f Fairyhouse with impressive pillar to post success in Group 3 Trigos Stakes at Leopardstown, travelling well into the straight before picking up in taking style to beat Marfach (reopposes today) by 3 1/2l. Perfect Symmetry (rated 97), a further neck back in third when a well-beaten third on that occasion, sets a decent standard through his success in the Golden Fleece Stakes, with the prospect of more to come making Cape Blanco an exciting prospect.

In the longer term, it will be very interesting to see how the son of Galileo progresses, with his pedigree (half-brother to a number of sprinters as well as classy American miler Mr. O’Brien out of a fast mare) very much a blend of speed and stamina. He didn’t appear to have a particularly great deal of physical scope about him at Leopardstown either, though he will be hard to peg back today.

King Ledley (DP McDonagh): Kevin Prendergast’s charge has held his form well through the season, having become something of a standing dish in this season’s main Irish 2yo races to date. Heavy ground holds no fears though the son of Stormin’ Fever is beginning to look a shade exposed at this stage. Has to prove he stays seven furlongs, with neither pedigree nor running style (certainly doesn’t lack pace) providing any compelling evidence that the extra furlong will bring about the improvement likely to bev required today.

Kingdom of Munster (JA Heffernan): Unfurnished sort who has looked green on three starts to date. Well beaten by Cape Blanco in Trigos following facile success in weak Tipperary maiden. Subsequently beaten 6 1/2l by Viscount Nelson and Bobbyscot in Tipperary listed contest, lacking the pace to get near the front pair. Almost certain to step up significantly on form to date with stiffer test today also likely to suit. Looks yard’s second string though and may not have the pace to deal with a couple of others today.

Marfach (KJ Manning): Chased home Cape Blanco at Leopardstown last time out, coming under pressure before straight before keeping on at one pace under pressure into second on the line. Stiffer test shaped as if it would suit on that occasion, and heavy ground won’t hold any fears - Jim Bolger’s charge having broken his maiden in heavy ground at Roscommon. That said, there looks no compelling reason as to why he should reverse form with Cape Blanco.

Mister Tee (K Latham): They don’t come much more frustrating than this bastard! Still a maiden after five starts despite being beaten a combined total of less than half a length on last three starts. Beginning to look a bit exposed now though and difficult to see him winning stepped up in class today. Given my experience with the horse, he’s likely to go and win by half a furlong now.

Moran Gra (PJ Smullen): Highly creditable fourth behind Canford Cliffs at Royal Ascot (looks strong form) gives Joanna Morgan’s son of Rahy strong form claims here. Disappointed at Goodwood last time (pulled hard) but, if that run is forgiven, looks most likely to challenge Cape Blanco with step up seven furlongs expected to suit. Hasn’t run on ground any slower than good, however, and Joanna Morgan’s assertion that the colt “will hate the ground” today seriously tempers enthusiasm.

Utrillo (SM Leavie): Looked green when thrown in at the deep end in listed contest at Tipperary. Like most Ballydoyle 2yo’s, can be expected to step up on debut today, though looks unlikely to get involved today.

Conclusion: Cape Blanco difficult to get away from following his Trigos victory though current prices over no incentive to get involved. On better ground, 16’s about Moran Gra would look a huge price, though the prospect of heavy ground is enough to let him go unbacked. E/W prospects are limited by 7 runners, but Marfach and Kingdom of Munster are taken to chase Cape Blanco home in a race which will likely be a watching brief for many.

SP: Cape Blanco 4/7, King Ledley 9/1, Marfach 10/1, Moran Gra 10/1, Kingdom of Munster 14/1, Mister Tee 22/1, Utrillo 50/1.
 
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Feck off, Betsmate. Thanks. :D

I might as well take this opportunity to shamelessly plug Colin Phillips's new site, www.viewfromthecouch.co.uk , as I will be contributing to it periodically from next week.

Unfortunately the site doesn't seem to be working at the minute, but it's worth checking out fairly often.
 
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Quiet Ocean caught my eye when third in a mile handicap at Galway, despite not getting the clearest of passages on that occassion. Step up to 10 furlongs looks like it should suit (stayed twelve last time out but was again unsuited by the way the race was run at Tramore) and heavy ground holds no fears.

Pat Martin's horse may still be well clear of the handicapper (Vivien Lee potentially well treated as well) but nevertheless I've backed Quiet Ocean E/W to small stakes in the first at Fairyhouse.

Will be looking to have a right cut at Alandi in the Ballycullen if I can get 2's or bigger.
 
Having backed Supaseus and Antinori, I reckon Dettori was brilliant on Fanjura. The pace was fast but not so fast as to leave him with nothing to get home. OK, events will probably show he was on a big improver but it's so easy to f&ck it up from the front - witness Micky Fenton on Celtic Sultan at Chester.
 
So, DO, do I get this right?.............. if one of yours is beat, it's either that the jock on the winner has ridden a cracker or the jock on yours has ridden a stinker?;)
 
Colin Phillips said:
So, DO, do I get this right?.............. if one of yours is beat, it's either that the jock on the winner has ridden a cracker or the jock on yours has ridden a stinker?;)
Click to expand...

If only life was as black and white, Colin.

While I may have a financial interest in the race, I like to think I can still see what's going on. The jockey did everything right on Supaseus, for example. He tracked the leader, which ultimately won the race therefore wasn't chasing too fast a pace. The horse just isn't back to the best of last year's form yet. I couldn't see much of Antinori during the race. It seemed buried in the pack before finishing well but I can't see any obvious grounds for complaint.

Fenton definitely went too fast. He had to ride quite vigorously after not quite timing the the break right but when he got to the front he should ahve tried to ease off a wee bit as he and the other horse were a good five lengths clear but he kept going and I knew at halfway he'd overdone it.

I had no financial interest in the Juddmonte but I remain of the opinion that Kinane nearly ballsed it up.
 
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