Todays Racing 9th November - Graduation Chase at Carlisle

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Aragorn

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Cracking graduation chase today at Carlisle in which last years gold cup 6th Roll Along takes on talented sorts in Money Trix, Lodge Lane and Companero.

Lodge Lane needs to improve his jumping, particularly at this track, otherwise he will not win this. I can't see it happening and so have ruled him out. Companero is one of these horses that Johnson campaigns cleverly up north to rattle up a sequence of wins. Like many in that mould though I don't think he is top class and a couple of these are.

That leaves Money Trix and Roll Along. Both are the same age but Roll Along has far greater experience over fences. I think the ratings disparity can be ignored because Money Trix has not had a chance to show his best over fences and was probably better over hurdles. Both are prone to jumping errors which, much like Lodge Lane, won't help around here although Roll Along does not fall very often.

I'm at work and not sure of the current prices but my suggestion in this race is to back Money Trix at the best available price and probably lay him off in running. I'm finding it difficult to split them and the race really could go either way but I can see Money Trix travelling well through the race and still being bang there with 3 fences to go which will be the time to get out with a profit.
 
How is Roll Along qualified for a graduation chase? This is his third season over fences, and he won as both a novice and a second-season chaser.
 
Will Roll Along even run? He's a marked preference for a decent surface and has been pulled out of races often enough when it's too soft.

Lodge Lane is a talented horse but a complete headcase. I couldn't back him with stolen!
 
Grassy, haven't got the race conditions in front of me but I thought Graduation chases were for horses that had won no more than 2 chases regardless of how long they had been campaigning.

Shadz, I agree, it's an odd move and i'll be watching him with my finger on the lay button on Money Trix because the last time roll along ran on heavy he had a shocker.
 
Good point Grassy - although some of these graduation chases are for horses who have won less than a certain amount of races over fences. The one at Kempton a few weeks back was for horses who had won less than three chases if I recall correctly.
 
I've just looked it up; "for four yrs old and upwards which have not won more than two steeple chases" are today's race conditions.
 
For a monday the race conditions have brought together a really good field so i'm not complaining! Now the BC is over I can focus on the leppers again..

I also like the McCain horse Reindeer Dippin in the beginners chase although his price is a bit skinny.
 
davidjohnson said:
Carlisle is one the the easiest tracks to jump in the country isn't it?
Click to expand...
Good point David, although it looks to my eye that the fences have been rebuilt in the last year at Carlisle, and they look rather less soft than they were. On the subject of Lodge Lane, I've come to the conclusion that he's an irredeemable hound already. Mr Dartnall can certainly get to the bottom of his horses quite quickly.
 
I may have got that wrong. Testing stamina wise rather than fence wise, which would probably suit Lodge Lane, having said that I still wouldn't back him!
 
I think there are questions marks against a lot of these, and will plump for Companero. He's very horribly off at the weights in this - though only if you believe that Roll Along is genuinely a 160 horse. That figure is very-much a high-water-mark for Roll Along, imo, and I think he is probably nearer 150 myself. That still leaves Companero a lot to find, but I think he is straightforward, he's a sound enough jumper, trip and ground are perfect, and he probably still has some improvement to come.

I can't quite understand why Companero is the price he is, to be honest , though I am mired in the middle of whatever the opposite of a 'purple-patch' is, which probably tells you the answer.
 
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Decent performance by Money Trix although i'm now annoyed I followed my own advice and laid him off in running but there you go.... Roll Along hated the ground as Shadz pointed out.
 
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