Top 5 Flat Jockeys riding now
- Thread starter harry
- Start date
I don't think it's a great era for Flat jockeys. De Sousa is decent and Crowley is competent but they wouldn't get in the top 30 of those I've seen over the years.
Of the current home-based crop, Moore and Dettori stand out.
One jockey I'm always happy to see on one I fancy is Martin Harley. I don't regard Fran Berry or Robert Havlin as negatives, either.
I don't rate Hanagan - an inordinate number of horses pull too hard in his hands.
Of the Godolphin jockeys, I prefer Doyle to Buick.
Smullen stands out in Ireland.
So: Moore, Dettori, Harley, Berry, Havlin.
Of the current home-based crop, Moore and Dettori stand out.
One jockey I'm always happy to see on one I fancy is Martin Harley. I don't regard Fran Berry or Robert Havlin as negatives, either.
I don't rate Hanagan - an inordinate number of horses pull too hard in his hands.
Of the Godolphin jockeys, I prefer Doyle to Buick.
Smullen stands out in Ireland.
So: Moore, Dettori, Harley, Berry, Havlin.
EC1
On a break
Regarding de Sousa I'm not sure if he is as good this year-has a reigning champion jockey ever ridden so many low class horses but despite that he seems to be missing something this year.
I will leave it to others to judge Jim Crowley but I will say one thing about him for the last 7 or 8 years he is the jockey that I hate laying the most.
Pat Smullen is completely dependable in Ireland -great judge of pace,incredibly strong -very hard to name a bad ride.
I will leave it to others to judge Jim Crowley but I will say one thing about him for the last 7 or 8 years he is the jockey that I hate laying the most.
Pat Smullen is completely dependable in Ireland -great judge of pace,incredibly strong -very hard to name a bad ride.
Fair question.
Ardross started a thread on current Flat jockeys back in June and I posted this then:
"I suspect the overall standard of jockeyship is probably higher - as a class, fitter, neater and more professional.
But I'm not struck at all by those at the top, Moore excepted. The Oaks wouldn't have been his finest hour but he's very good and he'd have been a leading jockey in any era.
One thing I have noticed is that I really struggle to identify a jockey during a race simply by his riding style. Off the top of my head, I used to able to identify Piggott, Eddery, Cauthen, Carson, Starkey, Mercer, Murtagh, Fallon - among many others - just from looking at race footage. Not the case now."
I stand by that although I think I was a bit harsh at the time on Dettori who I would put below Moore but above the rest.
As I said, the overall standard is probably higher.
I suppose I'm saying there's a lack of stars. My top three jockeys of all time would be, in order, Piggott, Cauthen and Fallon. I don't think there's anyone in the current crop anywhere near.
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Part time punter
At the Start
I've always rated Joe Fanning, if he is on one I fancy that has form front running then I tend to put a few more quid on. I'm not sure there are any better front running jocks out there for timing when to push on and steal a few lengths on the turn for home. Dettori and Moore are head and shoulders above everyone I think although Atzeni will get some opportunities for big rides and I do quite like him.
edgt
Senior Jockey
On the Irish scene Billy Lee is the most improved in the past few years.
Very capable,very very strong and like Pat Smullen he rarely makes a mistake.
Denis Linehan rode an absolute peach of a race at Limerick Monday last, not his first time doing so either.
He must be the best 7lb claimer around; attached to Johnny Murtagh from the family that produces those good horses with the "Well" suffix he is on the short list along with Killian Leonard to ride Apache some day soon.
Very capable,very very strong and like Pat Smullen he rarely makes a mistake.
Denis Linehan rode an absolute peach of a race at Limerick Monday last, not his first time doing so either.
He must be the best 7lb claimer around; attached to Johnny Murtagh from the family that produces those good horses with the "Well" suffix he is on the short list along with Killian Leonard to ride Apache some day soon.
EC1
On a break
I have found that a good way of judging a trainer or jockey is by seeing how they perform against a constant set of ratings. It doesn't really matter which ratings you use as long as its constant for the period tested. This removes the price element which tends to skew judging fairly how someone performs.
For instance..you can't use the market to really see how good McCoy was..or how good Ruby Walsh is...because part of the price element is based on them being the rider. Measuring how someone perfoms when they ride or train a top rated horse..gives a decent constant..which enables a view of how much trainer or jockey improves the rating. Its that improvement in strike rate above the benchmark that measures the ability of jock or trainer in real terms at that point in time.
I have got 1995 + 1996 Racing System Bulider..which lets you run the results of top rated Postmark [now RPR rating]. Most ratings churn out around a 20% strike .. when you run it for 95 + 96 you find that the top rated horse wins 20% of the time.
On that basis i have run how some jockeys in those two years perfomed against that benchmark of 20%
Frankie Dettori was champion Jockey in 1995..these are his figures when riding Postmark top rated horses for that year. The IV figure is key because when we look at more recent figures we will use a different rating system with a slightly different baseline. A figure of 1.00 is a par figure.
L Dettori000063/16900037.28%0000IV = 1.86
In 1996 Pat Eddery was Champion Jockey
P Eddery0000053/16100032.92%0000IV = 1.65
We can argue all day about who is best.....but using a constant benchmark shows Dettori was the better jock in that year.....ie he got more out of the top rated horses than Pat did... when he won the title. Thats no diss on Pat..these are very good figures...excellent in both instances..they set a high bar..as you will see later
Its a pity i haven't got 1997 figures when Fallon won the title..that would have been an interesting comparison.
These are Fallon's figures for 1996..i'm sure when he won the title the following year they would have been higher. If anyone has RSB for 1997 it would be very interesting..the period when Fallon was in his real pomp i haven't got figures for
K Fallon0000036/12500028.80%0000IV = 1.44
So from that period we can see what sort of level a very good ..above average in terms of ability... champion jockey rides to.
Like I said..it doesn't matter which ratings you use..they will hover around the 20% mark..as long as you know the overall strike rate for all top rateds in that period in time..you can measure anything from them.
Now moving on.....will use Flatstats ratings for more recent champion jockeys.......i hope thats ok...they are excellent ratings.
2007 - Champion Jockeys were Jamie Spencer and Seb Sanders Top rateds horses overall won 20.9% of races in that year...thats the benchmark.
J Spencer000 029.30%000 0IV= 1.40
S Sanders000 29.60%0000IV= 1.42
This confirms how using this method has great worth..look how close those IV's are..as they should be seeing as both jockeys tied. It also shows that before K Fallon won his title..even his figures from 1996 would have won him the 2007 championship. Again thats no diss on Spencer or Sanders..it just shows how good Fallon was..and how good Pat and Frankie were in comparison to the 2007 standard
At this point its clear to me that this method can measure who rode "best"..in any period of time.
2008 - Champion Jockey - Ryan Moore..all top rateds that year = 21.5%
R Moore0 030.20%0000IV = 1.40
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2009 - Champion Jockey - Ryan Moore..all top rateds that year = 22.0%
R Moore0 0 36.00%0000IV = 1.64
Interesting to see the leap forward Ryan took in this period..he's gone from..an "average" champion jockey into the Pat Eddery class of jockey.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010 - Champion Jockey - Paul Hanagan..all top rateds that year = 21.2%
P Hanagan0029.00%0000IV = 1.37
Hanagan measures as a solid average champion jockey along with Spencer and Sanders..perfectly good figures..buts its easy to see that there is another level that jockeys can perform to
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2011 - Champion Jockey - Paul Hanagan..all top rateds that year = 23.0%
P Hanagan0029.20%0000IV = 1.27
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2012 - Champion Jockey - R Hughes..all top rateds that year = 20.6%
R Hughes 0034.80%00 00IV = 1.69
This is a top notch performance...no matter what people think about Hughes not riding for places etc..the figures show that in this season he was a well above average champion..in the Eddery class.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2013 - Champion Jockey - R Hughes..all top rateds that year = 23.2%
R Hughes 0033.50%00 00IV = 1.44
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2014 - Champion Jockey - R Hughes..all top rateds that year = 22.6%
R Hughes 0031.70%00 00IV = 1.40
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2015 - Champion Jockey - S D Sousa.....all top rateds that year = 22.6%
S D Sousa 0030.50%00 00IV = 1.35
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Looking at those figures its easy to see what an average champion jockey looks like in performance figures against a known benchmark.....a jockey riding around the 1.30 - 1.40 mark..is performing to a level of average title winner...and using these figures you can earmark the level any jockey is riding to at any point in time.
In 2016 we have the SDS- Crowley head to head...at this moment in time the figures for each jockey for this year only is
S D Sousa 00IV = 1.21
J Crowley 00IV = 1.52
Those figures suggest SDS hasn't ridden to his level of last year..it also shows that Crowley is an above average champion rider....they are really good figures he has earned this year.
For instance..you can't use the market to really see how good McCoy was..or how good Ruby Walsh is...because part of the price element is based on them being the rider. Measuring how someone perfoms when they ride or train a top rated horse..gives a decent constant..which enables a view of how much trainer or jockey improves the rating. Its that improvement in strike rate above the benchmark that measures the ability of jock or trainer in real terms at that point in time.
I have got 1995 + 1996 Racing System Bulider..which lets you run the results of top rated Postmark [now RPR rating]. Most ratings churn out around a 20% strike .. when you run it for 95 + 96 you find that the top rated horse wins 20% of the time.
On that basis i have run how some jockeys in those two years perfomed against that benchmark of 20%
Frankie Dettori was champion Jockey in 1995..these are his figures when riding Postmark top rated horses for that year. The IV figure is key because when we look at more recent figures we will use a different rating system with a slightly different baseline. A figure of 1.00 is a par figure.
L Dettori000063/16900037.28%0000IV = 1.86
In 1996 Pat Eddery was Champion Jockey
P Eddery0000053/16100032.92%0000IV = 1.65
We can argue all day about who is best.....but using a constant benchmark shows Dettori was the better jock in that year.....ie he got more out of the top rated horses than Pat did... when he won the title. Thats no diss on Pat..these are very good figures...excellent in both instances..they set a high bar..as you will see later
Its a pity i haven't got 1997 figures when Fallon won the title..that would have been an interesting comparison.
These are Fallon's figures for 1996..i'm sure when he won the title the following year they would have been higher. If anyone has RSB for 1997 it would be very interesting..the period when Fallon was in his real pomp i haven't got figures for
K Fallon0000036/12500028.80%0000IV = 1.44
So from that period we can see what sort of level a very good ..above average in terms of ability... champion jockey rides to.
Like I said..it doesn't matter which ratings you use..they will hover around the 20% mark..as long as you know the overall strike rate for all top rateds in that period in time..you can measure anything from them.
Now moving on.....will use Flatstats ratings for more recent champion jockeys.......i hope thats ok...they are excellent ratings.
2007 - Champion Jockeys were Jamie Spencer and Seb Sanders Top rateds horses overall won 20.9% of races in that year...thats the benchmark.
J Spencer000 029.30%000 0IV= 1.40
S Sanders000 29.60%0000IV= 1.42
This confirms how using this method has great worth..look how close those IV's are..as they should be seeing as both jockeys tied. It also shows that before K Fallon won his title..even his figures from 1996 would have won him the 2007 championship. Again thats no diss on Spencer or Sanders..it just shows how good Fallon was..and how good Pat and Frankie were in comparison to the 2007 standard
At this point its clear to me that this method can measure who rode "best"..in any period of time.
2008 - Champion Jockey - Ryan Moore..all top rateds that year = 21.5%
R Moore0 030.20%0000IV = 1.40
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2009 - Champion Jockey - Ryan Moore..all top rateds that year = 22.0%
R Moore0 0 36.00%0000IV = 1.64
Interesting to see the leap forward Ryan took in this period..he's gone from..an "average" champion jockey into the Pat Eddery class of jockey.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010 - Champion Jockey - Paul Hanagan..all top rateds that year = 21.2%
P Hanagan0029.00%0000IV = 1.37
Hanagan measures as a solid average champion jockey along with Spencer and Sanders..perfectly good figures..buts its easy to see that there is another level that jockeys can perform to
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2011 - Champion Jockey - Paul Hanagan..all top rateds that year = 23.0%
P Hanagan0029.20%0000IV = 1.27
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2012 - Champion Jockey - R Hughes..all top rateds that year = 20.6%
R Hughes 0034.80%00 00IV = 1.69
This is a top notch performance...no matter what people think about Hughes not riding for places etc..the figures show that in this season he was a well above average champion..in the Eddery class.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2013 - Champion Jockey - R Hughes..all top rateds that year = 23.2%
R Hughes 0033.50%00 00IV = 1.44
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2014 - Champion Jockey - R Hughes..all top rateds that year = 22.6%
R Hughes 0031.70%00 00IV = 1.40
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2015 - Champion Jockey - S D Sousa.....all top rateds that year = 22.6%
S D Sousa 0030.50%00 00IV = 1.35
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Looking at those figures its easy to see what an average champion jockey looks like in performance figures against a known benchmark.....a jockey riding around the 1.30 - 1.40 mark..is performing to a level of average title winner...and using these figures you can earmark the level any jockey is riding to at any point in time.
In 2016 we have the SDS- Crowley head to head...at this moment in time the figures for each jockey for this year only is
S D Sousa 00IV = 1.21
J Crowley 00IV = 1.52
Those figures suggest SDS hasn't ridden to his level of last year..it also shows that Crowley is an above average champion rider....they are really good figures he has earned this year.
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3 of the top 5 have remained unchanged for the last 10 years, Moore, Dettori and Spencer. Fanning is fortunate to ride for Johnston, without his support he would just be another northern jockey who rides a few winners, can't use his whip in his left hand and is weak in a finish, nice enough chap though.
EC1
On a break
pretty spot on summary Gus
You may be underplaying Crowley though..he is above average imo. You mention Havlin..he is under rated for sure..his figures are very good
These are the figures for the last 2 years..jockey must have ridden 20+ top rated winners
| 1.63 | L Dettori |
| 1.57 | R L Moore |
| 1.39 | D Allan |
| 1.39 | R Havlin |
| 1.35 | Jim Crowley |
| 1.34 | G Baker |
| 1.28 | S De Sousa |
| 1.23 | A Kirby |
| 1.21 | Sean Levey |
| 1.21 | Oisin Murphy |
| 1.19 | P Hanagan |
| 1.19 | David Probert |
| 1.18 | T Hamilton |
| 1.17 | P Cosgrave |
| 1.14 | J P Spencer |
| 1.13 | J Doyle |
| 1.12 | P Makin |
| 1.09 | William Buick |
| 1.07 | J Fanning |
| 1.07 | Andrea Atzeni |
| 1.05 | P Mulrennan |
| 1.00 | G Lee |
| 0.98 | R Kingscote |
| 0.98 | Luke Morris |
| 0.95 | P Dobbs |
| 0.91 | B A Curtis |
| 0.89 | F Norton |
| 0.82 | D Tudhope |
| 0.60 | P McDonald |
<colgroup><col width="45"><col width="145"></colgroup> <tbody>
[TD="width: 45"] 1.65 [/TD]
[TD="width: 145"]R Hughes[/TD]
</tbody>
EC1
On a break
bear in my that over a 5 year period you won't get a figure as high as single seasons..and that there is no Irish data here.
from 2010 - 2015..all jockeys with 40+ top rated winners
<colgroup><col width="45"><col width="145"></colgroup> <tbody>
[TD="width: 45"] 1.46 [/TD]
[TD="width: 145"]R Hughes[/TD]
</tbody>
from 2010 - 2015..all jockeys with 40+ top rated winners
| 1.34 | P Hanagan |
| 1.28 | Sean Levey |
| 1.27 | P Dobbs |
| 1.27 | R L Moore |
| 1.23 | K Fallon |
| 1.23 | L Dettori |
| 1.23 | J Doyle |
| 1.20 | S De Sousa |
| 1.18 | J Fanning |
| 1.16 | William Buick |
| 1.16 | J P Spencer |
| 1.16 | Hayley Turner |
| 1.14 | G Baker |
| 1.13 | S Sanders |
| 1.11 | Martin Dwyer |
| 1.10 | T P Queally |
| 1.10 | A Kirby |
| 1.08 | R Kingscote |
| 1.08 | Dane O'Neill |
| 1.07 | G Lee |
| 1.07 | P Mulrennan |
| 1.07 | David Probert |
| 1.06 | N Callan |
| 1.05 | T E Durcan |
| 1.04 | D Allan |
| 1.04 | Martin Lane |
| 1.03 | M Harley |
| 1.02 | Jim Crowley |
| 1.01 | T Hamilton |
| 1.00 | R Winston |
| 1.00 | D Tudhope |
| 0.99 | Andrea Atzeni |
| 0.99 | Frederik Tylicki |
| 0.98 | A Nicholls |
| 0.95 | F Norton |
| 0.95 | Luke Morris |
| 0.95 | J Fortune |
| 0.85 | T Eaves |
| 0.85 | G Gibbons |
| 0.83 | P Makin |
| 0.79 | Catherine Gannon |
| 0.75 | P McDonald |
<colgroup><col width="45"><col width="145"></colgroup> <tbody>
[TD="width: 45"] 1.46 [/TD]
[TD="width: 145"]R Hughes[/TD]
</tbody>
Moore is numero uno but after that nobody stands out. Frankie is still riding very well but as was said before there is nobody who have their own recognisable style and who can make a difference. Atzeni doesn't seem to have progressed and there is definitely room for a younger jockey to break through.
If James McDonald were to spend more time over here next season I'd want him on my horse over any of the current crop with the possible amd obvious exception of Moore.
After Moore and Dettori I struggle to single anybody out to put them in a top 5 but Frank wouldn't be in it that's for certain.
After Moore and Dettori I struggle to single anybody out to put them in a top 5 but Frank wouldn't be in it that's for certain.
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tiggers1972
Senior Jockey
Given the right horse I'd still take a certain L Dettori over anyone.
edgt
Senior Jockey
Same here Tiggers, with Pat Smullen next
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EC1
On a break
you can't really doubt Crowleys ability imo ..has been phenominal and his recent record is staggering when you look at the odds/chance the horses had. They have only had 3 races at Windsor and he has won 2 of em up to press...riding out of his skin...these aren't easy odds onners he is getting home