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As Luke implies, if a week is a long time in politics, 8 weeks is an eternity. However, early (postal) voting will soon be under way so there is some point to keeping an eye on the polls and the odds. It would be correct that most Taylor Swift fans are likely to support the Democrats anyway but Harris has had trouble energising younger voters so the important part of the Swift message was to register to vote. Last time she made a similar request, over 300000 people followed the link from her post to the electoral registration site. That in itself is only a small percentage of the turn-out but several states will be decided by a few thousand votes so who knows, it might make a difference.


The odds changed dramatically after the debate but seemed to have steadied for now. Nationwide it's showing on Oddschecker as

1.95 Harris

2.06 Trump

which is a swivel from the pre-debate figures. However, it's still close enough to be considered even to all intents and purposes.


Likewise, in the main 6 swing states there have been small swings to the Democrats with this morning's prices for the favourites being;


Arizona 1.67 Rep.

Georgia 1.65 Rep.

Michigan 1.61 Dem.

Nevada 1.90 Dem.

Pennsylvania 1.92 Dem.

Wisconsin 1.63 Dem.


Going on the assumption that anything shorter than 1.7 is unlikely to be turned over and with Nevada only having a small number of college votes, we are back to it all being decided by Pennsylvania. I wonder how many Swifties there are in that state.


5 + 3 = ?
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