Traditionally, this is always a tricky part of the year for the punter. Quite simply, it's just impossible to say how a horse will run if returning after a break. In truth, the NH season hasn't really got into full swing so any selection will always carry a caveat, won't it. Having acknowledged that, there will be times when you just have to back it and see. This will particularly apply those horses that have impressed most the previous season.
Today, one such horse is running and those who have bothered to read my posts over the last year will certainly recognise:
Lounge Lizard - 3.00 Exeter - 13/2 ew 4 places 365
Of all the comments that I posted regarding the gelding, this was one which has stood out after his last win:
'Jumps well, doesn't he?
They can put him away now and let him grow. He'll go up, what? 10Lbs for that win? That'll open up some better handicaps for him.
Novice chasers can really improve in their second season and I'll be eagerly awaiting him. Shame about his good ground preference, mind; it narrows down the races he can go for.'
Well, firstly, he wasn't raised 10lbs but 9Lbs for his last win. Running just once afterwards, he was third at Aintree off 129 but, surprisingly, was dropped 2Lbs after that, leaving him on today's mark of 127. Regarding the comment above ' That'll open up some better handicaps for him', I was wondering where they might want to aim the horse so I looked up last year's Hennessey (365) at Newbury and noticed that the bottom weight last year was rated at 134: just 7Lbs higher than his present mark. Hmmm.
Yes, it's a tall order, thinking in terms of that top-class handicap but it's true that the race is often won by an unexposed improver. It's clear where I stand with LL: this is just a 6yo with only 12 races under rules, 5 of which were chases. He jumps like an absolute natural and I think breeding suggests that 3m is well within his capabilities. Of all the chasers I noted last term it was this one and the ill-fated Malinello that stood out.
All this lofty thinking over the Hennessey may end up being far-fetched but I'm expecting (as I wrote above) that, in his second season we can expect to see some marked improvement. If they are aiming at the big Newbury race, they'd need to win well to qualify. He has good ground here, too, so I simply must have a go, mustn't I?
That's my reasoning so I thought I'd share.
Elsewhere, I feel inclined to have a pop with another Daly charge in Lily Glitters - 4.10 Hereford 9/1 Ew. That was not a bad run last term on her chasing debut at Southwell, behind Walk In Clover. Considering how inexperienced she was, she jumped exceedingly well. Two things: firstly, all the way round she was asked to jump upsides or between horses and it must be noted that she put in an absolutely faultless round of jumping; not a single mistake. Secondly, on the last circuit she was startled by a loose horse that ran past her in the opposite direction. Visibly alarmed, she was not put off her race, which showed a nice level-headed attitude, I thought.
We shouldn't forget, too, that the race was on a left handed track, yet all her winning has been achieved on right-had courses, which she races over here. Top weight, yes, but I think she has shown that there's more to come over fences. She jumps, she stays. I'm hoping she'll be fit enough ( she looked like she might have need that last run).
I'll have a little look at her today and also put her in a little ew double with LL and see how we go.
Today, one such horse is running and those who have bothered to read my posts over the last year will certainly recognise:
Lounge Lizard - 3.00 Exeter - 13/2 ew 4 places 365
Of all the comments that I posted regarding the gelding, this was one which has stood out after his last win:
'Jumps well, doesn't he?
They can put him away now and let him grow. He'll go up, what? 10Lbs for that win? That'll open up some better handicaps for him.
Novice chasers can really improve in their second season and I'll be eagerly awaiting him. Shame about his good ground preference, mind; it narrows down the races he can go for.'
Well, firstly, he wasn't raised 10lbs but 9Lbs for his last win. Running just once afterwards, he was third at Aintree off 129 but, surprisingly, was dropped 2Lbs after that, leaving him on today's mark of 127. Regarding the comment above ' That'll open up some better handicaps for him', I was wondering where they might want to aim the horse so I looked up last year's Hennessey (365) at Newbury and noticed that the bottom weight last year was rated at 134: just 7Lbs higher than his present mark. Hmmm.
Yes, it's a tall order, thinking in terms of that top-class handicap but it's true that the race is often won by an unexposed improver. It's clear where I stand with LL: this is just a 6yo with only 12 races under rules, 5 of which were chases. He jumps like an absolute natural and I think breeding suggests that 3m is well within his capabilities. Of all the chasers I noted last term it was this one and the ill-fated Malinello that stood out.
All this lofty thinking over the Hennessey may end up being far-fetched but I'm expecting (as I wrote above) that, in his second season we can expect to see some marked improvement. If they are aiming at the big Newbury race, they'd need to win well to qualify. He has good ground here, too, so I simply must have a go, mustn't I?
That's my reasoning so I thought I'd share.
Elsewhere, I feel inclined to have a pop with another Daly charge in Lily Glitters - 4.10 Hereford 9/1 Ew. That was not a bad run last term on her chasing debut at Southwell, behind Walk In Clover. Considering how inexperienced she was, she jumped exceedingly well. Two things: firstly, all the way round she was asked to jump upsides or between horses and it must be noted that she put in an absolutely faultless round of jumping; not a single mistake. Secondly, on the last circuit she was startled by a loose horse that ran past her in the opposite direction. Visibly alarmed, she was not put off her race, which showed a nice level-headed attitude, I thought.
We shouldn't forget, too, that the race was on a left handed track, yet all her winning has been achieved on right-had courses, which she races over here. Top weight, yes, but I think she has shown that there's more to come over fences. She jumps, she stays. I'm hoping she'll be fit enough ( she looked like she might have need that last run).
I'll have a little look at her today and also put her in a little ew double with LL and see how we go.
