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Tuesday 27th Jan - Today's Bets, Betting, & Race Analysis + Thoughts

chaumi

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 7, 2012
Messages
1,480
Location
East Midlands
Fresh back from a 3 day trip to the North East coast in the camper. JHC it was cold up there. But great on the beach with Pickle. Met a lovely guy named Peter from up that way. He'd come to the beach to sit a while on his mate's memorial bench on the seafront, an annual trip by the sound of it. Had parked his camper up near ours. To be fair, most people up there are super-friendly and we had a good few chats. Hopefully next time will be t-shirt weather, rather than 5 layers, coat, gloves, and a hat.

Anyway...today's efforts...

2.25 Newcastle I'd noted about 6 weeks back that the Menzies team believed that Parish Quiz would jump all day, specifically with words along the lines of "ran ok in bumpers but wouldn't have suited. Will gallop all day, particularly fences".

And with 17.5 available about 10 mins before the off, this Snow Sky runner looked worth a go. Had a nice bet, covered it with Kinneston's runner Half Track just in case. Both went green before the off, with Parish grinding them into the ground from the front over this close-to-heavy 3 miles. Minor scare at the last, but pretty much just had to keep going.

Only Kalo Athena tried to go with him from the front and stayed there until broken. Had already done me a favour this year (Soldier over 3 miles). This won't have done any harm to chances of getting good odds at somewhere like Cartmel over 3 miles for the Moffatt team, probably in the spring.


3.00 Newc With It's Maisy getting backed, but thinking she really needs a 3 mile slog, the Neville SOF runner Mary Stanford looked most interesting here at the odds. Yes, chances are she'd really want 3 miles, too. But buoyed by the last success, the 19.5 twenty mins pre-race looked fine.

Ran well in 5th. Maisy tried to make all and, unsurprisingly, was run out of it at the end. Thought she did well to even get that close, and will always be interesting over a 3 mile slog. Mary was beaten far enough to ensure likely fair odds if/when stepping up to 3 miles.


3.12 Chepstow With the thinking that Charisma Cat might not be all that, and Trinity St might want further than 2 miles, there were 3 at big prices that looked interesting in this 2 mile novice. The Frontiersman Man Maid looking most likely to cause an upset of sorts. Went off mid 200s, but didn't expect a win and took around 12s 3 places. Ran on well to get close enough to the 3 leaders a couple out but couldn't keep it up. Didn't think the just under 5 for 4 places was worth it, so missed out a bit there when Maid kept going to get a distant 4th well clear of the rest. Has something, but this might have blown it for the 3-figure prices. The other two - Karlita Desbois and Milady Du Breuil - can have their day when the time is right.

3.35 Newc Shighness took the eye here at around 25 to enjoy this deep ground 3 miles under Brian Hughes, given the Big Breac seems a (useful) plodder that likely wants much further and the others looked much of a muchness. Went nicely green before the off. No good, didn't get close enough at any point really. The Big Breac - as expected - couldn't go with them, though had made one or two errors. Perhaps a bit better ground over three-and-a-half plus can yet see another win.

3.47 Chepstow Been waiting for this all day. Kim's Phantom Getaway looking good on paper. Surprised to see 19 available about 10 mins pre-race. Played up some of the earlier winnings, enough for it to count nicely.

Evan Williams The Magus looked potentially interesting as a high-priced danger, but ruled out given zero proof of ability to handle the ground. Venetia's? Will likely need a class 5 to even get close and didn't go anywhere near it as I might have done 3 months ago.

Didn't watch it so unclear what happened. Suffice to say I got that one well wrong, Phantom unplaced and not even in shot at the end. Will hopefully find out from Kim tomorrow what happened.

4.10 Newcastle Did fancy Burning It Up here but mid 5s not enough. Good call, chinned on the line after looking to have it won.

4.22 Chepstow Couldn't see past the Poets Word in this bumper - Big Jon Ollie - with 6 looking very fair. Looked to have a great chance of turning around form with Barrow Hill Lad, and with Skelton winning everything today this was worth a bet. Couldn't go with the easy winner and beat a long way into 2nd. With hindsight should have just gone first 3 at about 1.9, that was a certainty.

************

James Horton's Warrior Queen looks a possible in the 7.00 Wolves, will wait till nearer but want near 20s. And there's an Almanzor in France to go but likewise not unless in the 20s at least. Edit whoops not an Almanzor, a Time Test. In a claimer. Even better, but fear it won't show much above 12s.

Edit Had a bit of time so scanned the others at Wolves:


8.00 Phils Dream Surprised to see this here and under Hollie. Did me a favour at something like 50s at Dundalk a couple of years ago, don't think he's done anything since. So why in a Class 6 at Wolves? The answer - probably just accompanying McConnell's short-priced other runner in the 6.30. Maybe he's after the double. Will have a look later.

6.00 Got Causin a Commotion in my notebook, based on some old Newcastle form. Should be big enough today, though has missed one or two engagements. Noel Wilson also runs Nordic Games in the 8.00. May be doable at a big price. Edit: No good, in the 60s at best. Will get another chance.
 
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Fresh back from a 3 day trip to the North East coast in the camper. JHC it was cold up there. But great on the beach with Pickle. Met a lovely guy named Peter from up that way. He'd come to the beach to sit a while on his mate's memorial bench on the seafront, an annual trip by the sound of it. Had parked his camper up near ours. To be fair, most people up there are super-friendly and we had a good few chats. Hopefully next time will be t-shirt weather, rather than 5 layers, coat, gloves, and a hat.

Anyway...today's efforts...

2.25 Newcastle I'd noted about 6 weeks back that the Menzies team believed that Parish Quiz would jump all day, specifically with words along the lines of "ran ok in bumpers but wouldn't have suited. Will gallop all day, particularly fences".

And with 17.5 available about 10 mins before the off, this Snow Sky runner looked worth a go. Had a nice bet, covered it with Kinneston's runner Half Track just in case. Both went green before the off, with Parish grinding them into the ground from the front over this close-to-heavy 3 miles. Minor scare at the last, but pretty much just had to keep going.

Only Kalo Athena tried to go with him from the front and stayed there until broken. Had already done me a favour this year (Soldier over 3 miles). This won't have done any harm to chances of getting good odds at somewhere like Cartmel over 3 miles for the Moffatt team, probably in the spring.


3.00 Newc With It's Maisy getting backed, but thinking she really needs a 3 mile slog, the Neville SOF runner Mary Stanford looked most interesting here at the odds. Yes, chances are she'd really want 3 miles, too. But buoyed by the last success, the 19.5 twenty mins pre-race looked fine.

Ran well in 5th. Maisy tried to make all and, unsurprisingly, was run out of it at the end. Thought she did well to even get that close, and will always be interesting over a 3 mile slog. Mary was beaten far enough to ensure likely fair odds if/when stepping up to 3 miles.


3.12 Chepstow With the thinking that Charisma Cat might not be all that, and Trinity St might want further than 2 miles, there were 3 at big prices that looked interesting in this 2 mile novice. The Frontiersman Man Maid looking most likely to cause an upset of sorts. Went off mid 200s, but didn't expect a win and took around 12s 3 places. Ran on well to get close enough to the 3 leaders a couple out but couldn't keep it up. Didn't think the just under 5 for 4 places was worth it, so missed out a bit there when Maid kept going to get a distant 4th well clear of the rest. Has something, but this might have blown it for the 3-figure prices. The other two - Karlita Desbois and Milady Du Breuil - can have their day when the time is right.

3.35 Newc Shighness took the eye here at around 25 to enjoy this deep ground 3 miles under Brian Hughes, given the Big Breac seems a (useful) plodder that likely wants much further and the others looked much of a muchness. Went nicely green before the off. No good, didn't get close enough at any point really. The Big Breac - as expected - couldn't go with them, though had made one or two errors. Perhaps a bit better ground over three-and-a-half plus can yet see another win.

3.47 Chepstow Been waiting for this all day. Kim's Phantom Getaway looking good on paper. Surprised to see 19 available about 10 mins pre-race. Played up some of the earlier winnings, enough for it to count nicely.

Evan Williams The Magus looked potentially interesting as a high-priced danger, but ruled out given zero proof of ability to handle the ground. Venetia's? Will likely need a class 5 to even get close and didn't go anywhere near it as I might have done 3 months ago.

Didn't watch it so unclear what happened. Suffice to say I got that one well wrong, Phantom unplaced and not even in shot at the end. Will hopefully find out from Kim tomorrow what happened.

4.10 Newcastle Did fancy Burning It Up here but mid 5s not enough. Good call, chinned on the line after looking to have it won.

4.22 Chepstow Couldn't see past the Poets Word in this bumper - Big Jon Ollie - with 6 looking very fair. Looked to have a great chance of turning around form with Barrow Hill Lad, and with Skelton winning everything today this was worth a bet. Couldn't go with the easy winner and beat a long way into 2nd. With hindsight should have just gone first 3 at about 1.9, that was a certainty.

************

James Horton's Warrior Queen looks a possible in the 7.00 Wolves, will wait till nearer but want near 20s. And there's an Almanzor in France to go but likewise not unless in the 20s at least. Edit whoops not an Almanzor, a Time Test. In a claimer. Even better, but fear it won't show much above 12s.

Edit Had a bit of time so scanned the others at Wolves:


8.00 Phils Dream Surprised to see this here and under Hollie. Did me a favour at something like 50s at Dundalk a couple of years ago, don't think he's done anything since. So why in a Class 6 at Wolves? The answer - probably just accompanying McConnell's short-priced other runner in the 6.30. Maybe he's after the double. Will have a look later.

6.00 Got Causin a Commotion in my notebook, based on some old Newcastle form. Should be big enough today, though has missed one or two engagements. Noel Wilson also runs Nordic Games in the 8.00. May be doable at a big price. Edit: No good, in the 60s at best. Will get another chance.
The beach at Seahouses is good, in the summer...
 
I went through Seaham earlier to get my dog to a vet.

I hope you enjoyed it, Chaum. Albeit with the weather as it is.

Good luck with the horses tomorrow.
 
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