Two Rating's System

[Alex]

Good afternoon, it's me again . Okay I have spent the last 2 days going through past result's/ratings until it has driven me .

I think I have found a solution, but until I put it in practice I won't know. For this system I am using two separate ratings. Which might mean I will end up with too many selection's and I struggle to find value, possibly win only might help, or perhaps more runners. I am going to leave out the Irish racing for now.

I have looked ahead and tomorrow looks a good day as any to start this system.

 

[simmo]

Good luck with it!

 

[barjon]

Yes, good luck, Alex.

Talking systems was a bit of a blast from the past. Many years ago I used to have a daily nap competition with a work colleague, with the winer enjoying a slap up lunch at the loser’s expense at the end of the season. One day the boss caught us poring over the Sporting Life and when he found out what we were up to he asked to join in. He knew next to nothing about horse racing, so said he’d just have the third horse down in the third race of the day at the main meeting.

Easy meat, we thought. Much to our eternal shame, however, he won it two years on the trot.

 

[Alex]

This is probably the daftest system I have ever come up with, please any mathematicians out there tell me if there is any value in it

Balance = 0.00pts
Yesterday = 0.00pts
Today's Balance = 0.00pts

---

Prices taken with BOG bookies

3/1 or less : 3pts
100/30 to 5/1: 3.5pts
11/2 to 7/1: 3pts
15/2 to 9/1: 1.75pts ew
19/2 to 11/1: 1.5pts ew
12/1: 1.25pts ew
14/1+ 1.00pt ew

---

L 2.50
Dutch Finale 3/1
Blewburton 11/2
Foro Romano 13/2
Ballsgrove Boy 10/1 ew

H 3.12
Dreams Dozen 11/4
Haptics 6/1
Tokyo Boy 15/2 ew
Spanish Hustle 11/1 ew

L 4 25
Touchwood 3/1
Tea Sea 5/1
My Mate Mike 6/1
Mount Morgan 12/1 ew (4 places)

FL 7.55
Getuptheyard 7/2
Chef Monsieur 9/2
Mistertommyshelby 14/1 ew
Talk Of The Moon 14/1 ew

Sorry for the delay, in theory I should find the winner in each race .

 

[notsodancingbrave]

This is probably the daftest system I have ever come up with, please any mathematicians out there tell me if there is any value in it

Balance = 0.00pts
Yesterday = 0.00pts
Today's Balance = 0.00pts

---

Prices taken with BOG bookies

3/1 or less : 3pts
100/30 to 5/1: 3.5pts
11/2 to 7/1: 3pts
15/2 to 9/1: 1.75pts ew
19/2 to 11/1: 1.5pts ew
12/1: 1.25pts ew
14/1+ 1.00pt ew

---

L 2.50
Dutch Finale 3/1
Blewburton 11/2
Foro Romano 13/2
Ballsgrove Boy 10/1 ew

H 3.12
Dreams Dozen 11/4
Haptics 6/1
Tokyo Boy 15/2 ew
Spanish Hustle 11/1 ew

L 4 25
Touchwood 3/1
Tea Sea 5/1
My Mate Mike 6/1
Mount Morgan 12/1 ew (4 places)

FL 7.55
Getuptheyard 7/2
Chef Monsieur 9/2
Mistertommyshelby 14/1 ew
Talk Of The Moon 14/1 ew

Sorry for the delay, in theory I should find the winner in each race .

The biggest flaw I can see in this is that there is the potential of having 4 winners and still run at a loss on the suggested staking plan. For this to run in profit over any period of time is for you to have the winner in each race plus an ew horse placed.
I wouldnt have thought it would be sustainable unless you start with a massive bank and even then I can't see how you will consistently have a profit unless you have the winner of each race you bet in.

 

[Alex]

The biggest flaw I can see in this is that there is the potential of having 4 winners and still run at a loss on the suggested staking plan. For this to run in profit over any period of time is for you to have the winner in each race plus an ew horse placed.
I wouldnt have thought it would be sustainable unless you start with a massive bank and even then I can't see how you will consistently have a profit unless you have the winner of each race you bet in.

I am hoping for a high strike rate, 3/1 or less is acting as a kind of saver. I am also hoping that BOG will increase profits. But yes only time will tell, got to get through today first .

 

[Alex]

Not the best of starts yesterday, you may well be right notsodancingbrave, but I will carry on today.

Before starting this system yesterday there were two areas, through lack of results, that I had not properly checked. One was Irish racing and the other was if there were only 8 declared runners. I think I will tread carefully with these two situation's, especially after yesterday, I think, I was a bit daft doing 4 in an 8 field, it cost me -12.50pts .

Balance = 00.00pts
Yesterday = -13.00pts
Today's Balance = -13.00pts

---

Prices taken with BOG bookies

3/1 or less : 3pts
100/30 to 5/1: 3.5pts
11/2 to 7/1: 3pts
15/2 to 9/1: 1.75pts ew
19/2 to 11/1: 1.5pts ew
12/1: 1.25pts ew
14/1+ 1.00pt ew

Ban 3.30
Tropical Talent 9/4
Hope Hill 6/1
Regal Cavallier 14/1

E 4.35
Flight Plan 9/1
Two Tempting 9/1
Mirsky 4/1 - 2pt Saver

F 5.20
Roosevalt 5/2
Kilmwood Susan 9/2
Orchidaceae 4/1 - 2pt Saver

Bat 6.55
Far Above Dream 5/2
Iconic Times 66/1 (Not sure why this one is so high in the ratings, maybe AW form, decided to risk just 1/2pt ew, hopefully 8 run)

 

[Alex]

After yesterday, I woke up this morning looking forward to Today's action, perhaps the prices will improve after 10am. It's not through the lack of selection's, perhaps I am being over cautious now protecting my Bank. I will check again after 10am and post again.

Balance = -13.00pts
Yesterday =-+35.50pts
Today's Balance = +22.50pts

 

[Alex]

I don't have any races that qualify on value today, but for a bit of fun, I have picked out a selection or two from the qualifying races, that possibly could have value on an individual basis.

I have bet 1pt or 1.5pt ew (8/1 or less) BOG

W 1.50 Gorcombe Moonshine 8/1
M 1.55 Fletchers Dream 40/1 (1/2pt ew)
M 4.25 DC Cogent 14/1
E 5.00 Grecian Legacy 11/1
W 5.25 Shantou Express 8/1
+
L 5.34
WIN DOUBLES
Synergism 11/10 + C 6.30 High on Hope 9/4 2pt
Phaedra 3/1 + C 6.30 High on Hope 9/4 1pt

 

[The Fortune Teller]

I don't have any races that qualify on value today, but for a bit of fun, I have picked out a selection or two from the qualifying races, that possibly could have value on an individual basis.

I have bet 1pt or 1.5pt ew (8/1 or less) BOG

W 1.50 Gorcombe Moonshine 8/1
M 1.55 Fletchers Dream 40/1 (1/2pt ew)
M 4.25 DC Cogent 14/1
E 5.00 Grecian Legacy 11/1
W 5.25 Shantou Express 8/1
+
L 5.34
WIN DOUBLES
Synergism 11/10 + C 6.30 High on Hope 9/4 2pt
Phaedra 3/1 + C 6.30 High on Hope 9/4 1pt

A 50/1 winner, Alex. Well done.

 

[Alex]

Thanks Fortune Teller and Simmo, I almost did not bother betting today. But with the effort I put in, my wife will tell you , I thought I should have a few small bets. I wish I had gone 1pt ew .

 

[Alex]

Good Morning, I am including the results of yesterday "for a bit of fun" bets in my balance because I can see me needing me to do this on occasions in the future. If anyone objects to this please let me know.

Today I do have 2 qualifying races where I can bet on all of the selections. Slighty concerned with both of them. I do not have enough data to know if this system will work on Irish racing but I am giving it a go. I also don't know if it works on Heavy ground.

Balance = +22.50pts
Yesterday = +21.20pts
Today's Balance = +43.70pts

---

Prices taken with BOG bookies

3/1 or less : 3pts
100/30 to 5/1: 3.5pts
11/2 to 7/1: 3pts
15/2 to 9/1: 1.75pts ew
19/2 to 11/1: 1.5pts ew
12/1: 1.25pts ew
14/1+ 1.00pt ew

P 2.00
Lisnagar Fortune 15/8
Must Be Obeyed 17/2
In Excelsis Deobs 10/1

G 4.10
Spirit Maker 5/2
Zinc White 8/1
Victory Shout 20/1
Almuhit 13/2 (1.25 pt saver)

 

[Alex]

Yesterday I blew my 50/1 winnings, still I learned something, don't bet on Irish racing with this system.

Balance = +43.70pts
Yesterday = -19.25pts
Today's Balance = +24.45pts

---

Prices taken with BOG bookies

3/1 or less : 3pts
100/30 to 5/1: 3.5pts
11/2 to 7/1: 3pts
15/2 to 9/1: 1.75pts ew
19/2 to 11/1: 1.5pts ew
12/1: 1.25pts ew
14/1+ 1.00pt ew

W 7.00
Change Signs 100/30
Regal Envoy 4/1
Law Of Average 33/1

 

[Alex]

No bets from me today, tomorrow also looks quite. Regal Envoy 9/2 won my only race yesterday. When I get a minute, I am going to look back at Class 6 handicap races, and see if this system works with that grade.

Balance = +24.45pts
Yesterday = +10.25pts
Today's Balance = +34.70pts

 

[Alex]

No bets yesterday, a non runner in the race I am betting in, means I am win only.

Balance = +34.70pts
Yesterday = 00.00pts
Today's Balance = +34.70pts

---

Prices taken with BOG bookies

3/1 or less : 3pts
100/30 to 5/1: 3.5pts
11/2 to 7/1: 3pts
15/2 to 9/1: 1.75pts ew
19/2 to 11/1: 1.5pts ew
12/1: 1.25pts ew
14/1+ 1.00pt ew

H 8.30
The Gay Blade 9/2
Vince Lombardi 11/2
Havana Rum 6/1

 

[Alex]

Apparently Havana Rum felt intimidated and tried to bite the winner, I just wish he had just concentrated on trying to win the race .

Balance = +34.70pts
Yesterday = -9.50pts
Today's Balance = +25.20pts

---

Prices taken with BOG bookies

3/1 or less : 3pts
100/30 to 5/1: 3.5pts
11/2 to 7/1: 3pts
15/2 to 9/1: 1.75pts ew
19/2 to 11/1: 1.5pts ew
12/1: 1.25pts ew
14/1+ 1.00pt ew

N 1.30
Dawn Of Liberation 3/1
Obsidan Knight 5/1
Alazar 12/1 (4 places)
Ellexis 40/1 (4 places, 1/2pt ew)

N 3.25
Barleybrown 12/1 (worth a go at the price)

W 5.40
Mcgregors Charge 15/8
Travelling Soldier 7/2
Jimmyjeroo 4/1

 

[Alex]

As far as the ratings are concerned, I am not getting the same race situations as I was at the beginning of the flat season. I think it's due to the fact that horses have had a couple of runs and form has settled down. I am finding that there are two many qualifiers, or there is no value in the races I want to bet in. Consequently I am probably trying to find value when it's not really there. I hope to have a look at Class 6 later today.

Balance = +25.20pts
Yesterday = -2.30pts
Today's Balance = +22.90pts

---

Prices taken with BOG bookies

3/1 or less : 3pts
100/30 to 5/1: 3.5pts
11/2 to 7/1: 3pts
15/2 to 9/1: 1.75pts ew
19/2 to 11/1: 1.5pts ew
12/1: 1.25pts ew
14/1+ 1.00pt ew

G 7.50
Wheels Of Fire 5/2
Walnut 7/1
Be An Angel 20/1
Priapos 4/1 (2pt saver)

 

[Alex]

A nice 7/1 winner yesterday. I don't feel particularly confident today, the ground and Non Runners is not helping, I probably should have the day off. But when I am going to have a bet, I am not sure I have got enough patience for this system .

Balance = +22.90pts
Yesterday = +14.00pts
Today's Balance = +36.90pts

---

Prices taken with BOG bookies

3/1 or less : 3pts
100/30 to 5/1: 3.5pts
11/2 to 7/1: 3pts
15/2 to 9/1: 1.75pts ew
19/2 to 11/1: 1.5pts ew
12/1: 1.25pts ew
14/1+ 1.00pt ew

C 3.20
Milford 4/1
Tattie Bogle 14/1

S 4.25
She's The Duchess 4/1
Soho Square 6/1
Cradle Of Love 6/1 (this one is drifting out, I should have waited and done ew)

H 4.20
Tara Iti 9/4
Just Oot 9/2

H 6.28
Miss Maverick 7/2
Fingals Hill 4/1
Buy Some Time 11/1 (Just 1.25pt saver)

 

[Alex]

For a bit of Saturday fun, I am going to have a Yankee on 4 races this aftetnoon, which I don't have a selection in. The reason being these 4 are unusually clear in one of the ratings I look at. To be honest it's not usually a good sign, but I have noticed on a Saturday this does not apply.

3.30pt Win Yankee
S 1.30 Gladious 15/8
C 3.55 Brave Knight 3/1
S 5.00 Blast The Dream 5/1
C 5.05 Amancio 1/1

 

[Alex]

Thanks to Fingals Hill last gasp win, today was not a poor day. I have just come back from the Pub, and at this moment in time, I am just feeling grateful. I am making the odd mistake in search to have a bet. Fingals Hill was not one, but I have to accept that I just got lucky.

I have come to the conclusion, that I should bail out while I am +30pts ahead, and be thankful for that. I will probably wake up in the morning and think differently .

Apart from not winning, the lack of bets is the reason for this decision. I do think this system, whether it's one or two ratings works well at the beginning of the flat season. Perhaps until the end of May, but then it has unfortunately groud to a halt.

Balance = +36.90pts
Yesterday = -3.50pts (Perhaps -6.80pts if you include the fun yankee)
Today's Balance = +33.40pts