Two Year Olds

barjon

barjon

Rookie
Joined
Aug 2, 2020
Messages
3,893
26/3 Brocklesby

1. Persian Force as expected (evens fav) he was a class above the rest, took 5 lengths out of the field in the last furlong easing up. Probably a good one and will give Hannon a good benchmark to test his others.

2. Primrose Ridge 40/1 so little expected, but always prominent and didn’t lose much to experience.

3. Jiffy Boy slowly away, but picked up well to race midfield and pushed along from half way finishing well.

4. EYECATCHER: Mascapone 33/1 - slowly away and ran green (particularly early on) in last or thereabouts. Still back there with around a furlong and a half left, but came through the field strongly and finished well into 4th only two necks behind runner-up. Will come on a bundle for the race, I think.

5 Evolicatt another to start slowly, she was pushed along off the bridle towards rear from early on and ridden harder from half way. She finished well and showed promise.
 
Last edited:
I thought the winner was a class or two above the average winner of this race.First race at The Curragh yesterday looked decent.
 
First Season Sires of 2022:


Sioux Nation 1/2 covered 241 mares
Havana Grey 9/4 covered 145 mares
Saxon Warrior 6/1 covered 165 mares
Expert Eye 10/1 covered 139 mares
Roaring Lion 14/1 covered 133 mares
Harry Angel 14/1 covered 139 mares
Kessaar 25/1 covered 97 mares
Cracksman 33/1 covered 147 mares
Massaat 100/1 covered 84 mares
U.S. Navy Flag 100/1 covered 119 mares
Tasleet 100/1 covered 107 mares
Gustav Klimt 100/1 covered 117 mares
Rajasinghe 200/1 covered 33 mares
Unfortunately 500/1 covered 52 mares
Washington DC 500/1 covered 67 mares
Lightning Spear 500/1 covered 55 mares
Smooth Daddy 500/1 covered 71 mares
James Garfield 500/1 covered 68 mares
The table supplied by my good friend, Gary, shows the sire, his price in the Champion First Season Sire market and the number of mares the stallion covered.
As you see Sioux Nation was a very busy boy and by sheer strength of numbers looks a likely champion but 1/2 ain't very tempting.
SIOUX NATION stands at Coolmore at a fee of 10,000 euros, down from 12,500 for his first two seasons, I haven't researched this but it does seem very unusual for Coolmore to have a young sire 'working' so hard. Isn't burnout possible?
Right let's have a look at the contenders in a little more detail.
SIOUX NATION Official rating 111 Racing Post Rating 115
By Scat Daddy out of Dream The Blues, a daughter of Oasis Dream. Oodles of speed there. For such a speedy individual it was surprising that he didn't start winning until his fourth run, the 5f. Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot on Good To Firm. Aiden O'Brien's only runner in the race and a juicy 14/1 winner for the stable faithful. Ground condition seemed quite important to him, all his best winning form coming on fast ground. Something to remember for his progeny. Probably his most important performance was to take the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes over 6f. on good to firm at the Curragh. He was kept busy throughout his career running 15 times and winning 4, so not unbeatable at the very top level. He ran 8 times as a 3-y-o with just the one victory a Group 3 at Naas over 6f. on Good to Firm.
HAVANA GREY O.R. 112 R.P.R. 115
By Havana Gold out of a Dark Angel mare. Didn't appear until the end of April to make his debut at Nottingham having to settle for second after going off 5/4 favourite but he did show plenty, staying on well after being headed inside final furlong, that was over 5f. on Good To Firm. He made amends at Ayr and then went on to take the Listed National Stakes at Sandown. Didn't have the luckiest of runs when disappointing in the Norfolk at Ascot behind Sioux Nation. Went on to win the Molecomb at Goodwood 5f. Soft but perhaps his best performance at two was a second beaten half-a-length in the Flying Childers 5f. Good to Soft. He ran six times as a 3-y-o winning two, the Group 2 Sapphire Stakes and the Group 1 Flying Five both at the Curragh both over 5f., one on Good to Firm and one on Good to Yielding. Havana Grey doesn't appear to be as ground dependent as Sioux Nation.
SAXON WARRIOR O.R. 121 R.P.R. 122
He also stands at Coolmore by Deep Impact out of a Galileo mare, apparently more stoutly bred than the two we have already looked at. He didn't appear on a course until August over a mile at the Curragh on Yielding ground and winning in very nice fashion. He had three runs as a 2-y-o and won them all. His final victory for his first season being the Racing Post Trophy over a mile on Good to Soft. Started his 3-y- o career by winning the 2,000 Guineas. Didn't have the clearest of runs in The Derby but 12f. probably not his optimum trip. Beaten favourite again in The Irish Derby, dropped back in trip for his final two runs but twice put in his place by Roaring Lion. Undoubtedly will produce top-class youngsters but he doesn't look like a First Season Sire champion to me.
EXPERT EYE O.R. 119 R.P.R. 120
By Acclamation out of a Dansili mare, typical 2-y-o breeding. Expert Eye only had three runs in his first season but he won two and finished lame in the Dewhurst. Making his debut at Newbury in the middle of June over 6.5f. on good ground and winning cosily. Went on to win, impressively, the Vintage at Goodwood over 7f. on, again, Good ground. Did very well at three, running seven times, winning three and being placed in three, the only flop being the 2,000 Guineas, I say flop but he was impeded in the race and all chance went. On racing post ratings his best performance was the Jersey at Ascot over 7f. on Good to Firm going clear to win by over four lengths. He is probably classier than his breeding would suggest and will produce good winners but difficult to see him having enough runners and winners to compete with Sioux Nation.

So, in my opinion, the weight of numbers almost ensures the favourite's position but the price is prohibitive. I should also add a rider to this, If SIOUX NATION"s progeny have the same need of fast ground that the sire appeared to have that could seriously reduce his number of winners.

If you are interested the blog can be found here;

https://horseracingtwoyearolds.blogspot.com/

Very basic I'm afraid. No flashing lights or fireworks just boring old text.
 
Last edited:
Leicester Class 5 April 1

1. Jiffy Boy, made nearly all, the Brocklesby experience showed and ran on nicely.

2. Evolicatt closer to the winner this time she was close up throughout, again experience showed.

3. EYECATCHER: Rousing Encore 14/1 slowly away and headstrong for a bit, started moving smoothly from rear 2f out and finished nicely when asked 1f out to finish only 3/4 length behind the runner up. Looked to have promise at this level.
 
Cracksman got an interesting write up on Racing Post Bloodstock.
By Plusvital Speed Gene Test he is rated C C, a sprinter.
He never ran at two nor ran at less than a mile , but should the speed transfer to offspring he could be a dark horse to keep in mind.
That is if you rate Emmeline Hill's research in the first place.
 
edgt said:
Cracksman got an interesting write up on Racing Post Bloodstock.
By Plusvital Speed Gene Test he is rated C C, a sprinter.
He never ran at two nor ran at less than a mile , but should the speed transfer to offspring he could be a dark horse to keep in mind.
That is if you rate Emmeline Hill's research in the first place.
Click to expand...

Have been waiting!
 
Was hooked on Cracksman on debut as late 2yr old at Newmarket. Gave me some thrills!
 
Plus ça change..........first 3 home, in what looked a decent maiden at Newmarket, are by Dandy Man, Dandy Man and Dark Angel.
 
Some numbers regarding sires of 2-y-os. Figures are for Europe : (1) number of runners (2) number of those that have won a race (3) numberof races run (4) number of races won.

ALL SIRES

HAVANA GREY 29 - 10 - 47 - 12

NO NAY NEVER 14 - 6 - 18 - 8

BUNGLE INTHEJUNGLE 20 - 5 - 37 - 6

DANDY MAN 22 - 6 - 39 - 6


FIRST SEASON SIRES

HAVANA GREY 29 - 10 - 47 - 12

SIOUX NATION 17 - 5 - 24 - 5

TASLEET 7 - 3 - 12 - 3

JAMES GARFIELD 5 - 3 - 12 - 3


A reminder for those with an interest in 2-y-o racing that I am writing a blog on 2-y-os, which at the moment I am updating daily. I'd appreciate you having a look and please feel free to comment.

https://horseracingtwoyearolds.blogspot.com/
 
Two more wins for Havana Grey yesterday. They take him to 16, ten ahead of Sioux Nation.

Backing them all 59 bets, 16 wins, 27.1% win % return 187.7

Fillies only 34 - 10 - 29.4 - 215.2
 
Bolt Action looks another smart Kessaar two year old for Roger Varian.
He fairly bolted up at Leicester today .
20k yearling to 160k Breeze up from family of Iridessa and Order Of Australia he could another for Royal Ascot.
 
First season sire numbers at the end of May:

HAVANA GREY runners 37 winners 15 runs 65 wins 18
SIOUX NATION 29 - 9 - 46 - 10
JAMES GARFIELD 7 - 3 - 13 - 5
TASLEET 11 - 4 - 20 - 5
CRACKSMAN 5 - 4 - 8 - 4


Numbrs for the older stallions:


NO NAY NEVER runners 15 winners 7 runs 22 wins. 10
BRAZEN BEAU 13 - 6 - 28 - 9
BUNGLE INTHEJUNGLE 23 - 6 - 50 - 8
COTAI GLORY 25 - 8 - 44 - 8
DANDY MAN 31 - 8 - 54 - 8
 
I'm just crunching some numbers and I'm coming up with a very smart figure for Bradsell.

Using the same (my usual) approach but two different sets of standard times, I'm still coming up with good figures.

On my own standard times (ie the original Ken Hussey ones, which I think are more reliable) Bradsell is coming out 24lb slower than Nature Strip, which is not slow.

Using the published ones in the RP, he's coming out 35lbs slower. The discrepancy is accounted for by the substantial difference in the standard times at 6f. The difference at 5f is 0.62s; at 6f it's 1.70. In both cases it's the old times that are slower.

The King's Stand form makes perfect sense looking at the placed horses and those just behind. It looked a fast race so I've calculated the going allowance based on a direct correlation with my rating for the winner.

The Bradsell figures make sense in the context. The fly in the ointment is how much to allow for weight for age.

For mid-June the official allowance for juveniles is 34lbs at 5 furlongs and 38lbs at 6 furlongs. These would suggest that Bradsell could arguably be regarded as the two-year-old equivalent of Nature Strip.

Personally, I've doubted the scale for years. I accept it's based on large-number averages but the whole thing about the better two-year-olds is that they're anything but average. They're good juveniles because they are better, or more advanced, than average.

I'm much more at ease in my own head allowing the start-of-year allowance of 16lbs at 6f. This still brings out Bradsell at 110 at the less generous time rating and 121 at the faster one. The precise rating, if one can exist, is probably somewhere in between.

What do the other juvenile observers out there (ie observers of juveniles rather than throwing out insults :D) reckon?
 
Looking at times for the Wednesday, I think that the juvenile races were true-run but the others weren't, bar the Kensington Palace, and those times are meaningless.

I have Dramatised running 15lbs faster than Little Big Bear over C&D and, based on my going allowance for the KP, I have her on a raw rating of 109.

It would be fairly unusual for filly to be faster than a colt so this makes sense too.
 
First Season Sires


The monthly update of the numbers:



HAVANA GREY runners 56 winners 20 runs 123 wins 24

SIOUX NATION 38 - 14 - 76 - 15

EXPERT EYE 26 - 7 - 56 - 8

CRACKSMAN 9 - 6 - 18 - 7

TASLEEF 19 - 5 - 38 - 7
 
Last edited:
Back
Top