davewatts50
Amateur Rider
Here are my bets for the UK's all-weather races today. Initial selections are from the Southwell meeting. There may be more to follow later.
Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book: UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on the AW
As mentioned LTO he finished 3rd.In his last race. That race was won by Doctor Khan Junior with Legal Reform finishing 0.5 length second and then Down To The Kids another 0.5 lengths back in third. The race was quite a bit faster than the average for the meeting and the Vs.Par figures correspond showing the race was run 0.73 seconds faster than the par time for that type of race in the given conditions. I have cross checked this with the speed ratings and although he finished 3rd he actually ran his highest speed rating for this year. His C&D stats are 2 wins and one place from 3 runs which is a 67% win strike rate.
The Trainer and Jockey combination interests me, in the past two years in AW races they have won 5 from 30 for a 17% strike rate. However, if you narrow that down to Southwell in the past two years, it's 5 from 16 for a 31% strike rate. That's pretty impressive. Jason Hart has ridden the horse 6 times and won 3 times.
He likes to lead and although there are others that will like to go forwards I believe he will get to the front and dictate the pace. The market has North View as the current favourite and he likes to be held up and finish fast. He is a danger having won well at Chelmsford in a valuable class 4 race.
DOWN TO THE KID Win bet @ 7/2
Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book: UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on the AW
8:30 Southwell - Handicap (0-85) (4) 4yo+ 7F
DOWN TO THE KID is a In Form 7 year old gelding who's a Course and Distance winner. He's somewhat a course specialist having won 8 from 21 for a really impressive 38% strike rate. He last won 28 days ago and has raced once since then finishing a good third beaten by a length in a strong race. That was 21 days ago over C&D but in a class 3. Today, he's dropping back into a class 4 over the same distance. His handicap mark is 84 and his highest winning handicap mark is 78.As mentioned LTO he finished 3rd.In his last race. That race was won by Doctor Khan Junior with Legal Reform finishing 0.5 length second and then Down To The Kids another 0.5 lengths back in third. The race was quite a bit faster than the average for the meeting and the Vs.Par figures correspond showing the race was run 0.73 seconds faster than the par time for that type of race in the given conditions. I have cross checked this with the speed ratings and although he finished 3rd he actually ran his highest speed rating for this year. His C&D stats are 2 wins and one place from 3 runs which is a 67% win strike rate.
The Trainer and Jockey combination interests me, in the past two years in AW races they have won 5 from 30 for a 17% strike rate. However, if you narrow that down to Southwell in the past two years, it's 5 from 16 for a 31% strike rate. That's pretty impressive. Jason Hart has ridden the horse 6 times and won 3 times.
He likes to lead and although there are others that will like to go forwards I believe he will get to the front and dictate the pace. The market has North View as the current favourite and he likes to be held up and finish fast. He is a danger having won well at Chelmsford in a valuable class 4 race.
DOWN TO THE KID Win bet @ 7/2
