Sunday nights opinion polls continue to show the effects of the Trump assault on Cruz in Iowa with anything between 5 and 11pt leads opening up on what admittedly are poor sample sized surveys
So I thought I'd start having a go at the Trump v's Hillary state by state using 270towin. This is what I got
Florida = Trump
Ohio = Trump
New Hampshire = Clinton
North Carolina = Trump
Minnesota = Clinton
New Mexico = Clinton
Wisconsin = Clinton
That leaves 231 Dem 253 Rep, but I'm startring to run into the ones I'm nervous about now.
Clinton struggles in Iowa, and the neo-Trump core is supposedly over represented there, so I'll back the hypothesis blind an go Trump. Colorado still tends to trend towards Democrat (despite John Elway). Nevada has been picking up some of California's richer population in recent years. Trump has a presence in Vegas, but it has a lot of low paid migrant workers and has been suffering water shortages due to climate change. Perhaps it's not ready for Trump yet
Iowa = Trump
Colorado = Clinton
Nevada = Clinton
So I've got it down to Virgina and Pennsylvania
If the DC sphere of influence keeps Virginia Democrat it's a 259 tie
To create some value in the punt though we need to call Pennsylvania for Trump, which would be enough for 279 college votes and the White House. If we say Pennsylvania goes Clinton though, we end up with a Democrat win and odds on. You have to put your faith in something to create the price, albeit it might be worth taking a saver on the state in conjunction with a more ambitious Trump spread. What might be tempting is if I've got Colorado and Nevada wrong though. If they break the otherway, Trump would get 294 votes and win by 50, which I suspect will be over the odds. It's more likely though that Virginia is the vulnerable one, and of the two out west, perhaps its Nevada that might swing Trumps way
That gives Clinton 253 and Trump 285
Basically, political markets should probably be treated as futures speculation. Bookies always price them up according to the situation now, so we're kind of looking for trends and issues we expect to frame the argument, and from this, try and extrapolate who will be favoured by the territory it'll be fought on. The spectre of ISIL won't go away. This, and the wider Muslim issue will feed Trump. He can promise all sorts of aggressive interventions, Hillary has to defend a record which history isn't being kind to.
We can also spot a trend that when Trump personalises his attacks he's seemingly blessed with the ability to damage opponents. OK, he's never been tested on a Democrat yet, but he's going to have fun taunting her about his previous donations to her campaigns, and how she comes scuttling along to his wedding with the begging bowl out
It's the economy stupid - we're seeing mixed messages here. There might be grounds for thinking things could look worse in 12 months time than they do today. There's a few pessimistic forecasts starting to rear their heads.
My suspicion is that things could well trend Trump, and we might see Hillary having to spend a little bit more time winning the nomination and fighting primaries than she expected to. Trump might have a clear field by Florida
OK we need to see evidence that Trump's vote is actually there, and he does have the capacity to blow out still and the whole thing could be one big spectacular joke that the American people were having on tthe establishment and the media, then again, he could be for real?
Incidentally, the BBC recently described the moderate Republicans of having formed a circular firing squad, i did read another account Stateside though that compared them to a 'demolition derby'. I quite liked the picture that painted of battered old bangers tearing round and round in circles crashing into each other and leaving nothing but scattered debris - it sounds about right
