OK - I'm struggling to break the sod of a new project, so thought I'd have a quick look at the candidates finance instead, according to what they've filed with the FEC as of 30/10/2015 (the last accounting period). There's clearly some ambiguity here, as the official figures are occasionally at odds with those put up in the media, particularly with regards to Hillary and Bernie, who some commentators are crediting her with having 10 times his war chest. There's also the issue of personal finance rather than donated money a candidate can bring to the table, which significantly conceals Trump's spending capacity.
The first figure is what they've declared they've raised. The bracketted figure is what they have left by way of cash to spend ($ in millions)
Clinton $76.1 ($32.9)
Sanders $41.2 ($27.1)
Sanders is clearly richer than I'd realised
Carson $31.3 ($11.2) - hadn't realised how cash rich he was, albeit his finance director left 2 weeks ago
Cruz $26.4 ($13.7) - massive reliance on TX. Has "transferred in" $250,000 (I assume this is a personal donation from his own funds)
Bush $24.8 ($10.2) - has a strong following right along the east coast and raised twice what Rubio has
Rubio $13.6 ($10.9) - has a strong following in CA for some reason. Only other candidate showing a 'transfer in' of $175,000. Rubio's figures don't add up either, but I'm quite sure there's a perfectly good reason for this as I somehow doubt I've discovered a terminal case of malpractise!
Fiorina $8.4 ($5.5) -
Trump $5.7 ($0.25) - has a very solid state by state profile, but can supplement anytime he chooses
Kasich $4.4 ($2.6) - has a reliance on OH
Christie $4.2 ($1.3) - massive reliance on NJ
You would have think that Christie could drop out if he doesn't do well in New Hampshire. He's already had a quite public falling out with Trump over New Jersey celebrating the 9/11 attacks and wouldn't be interested in serving him you'd think. I also doubt that Trump (a New Yorker) would put someone from New jersey on the ticket anyway
Fiorina could hang around a bit longer yet, as she might have aspirations to be someones running mate ticking the female and the west coast boxes. I think there was an assumption that she'd be angling for a trade brief, which means she'll withdraw and endorse when she thinks she's got that pledge from a credible candidate. The question they must be asking themselves though is are their prospects of a future run damaged by an association with Trump?
Bush has spent alot on TV without making much headway. I can see why the establishment are giving up on him. You suspect Jeb can go back to the well yet. His state by state profile is much more diverse than many
Carson's the one who surprised me. It's remarkable really that a retired neuro surgeon can raise more money in 6 months towards winning a nomination that the British conservatives spent on their entire campaign in 2015. He can stick around a lot longer yet on this figures from the end of September. Since then though his supporthas fallen away. We might see a different picture when they next have to file their returns
