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Couple of other thoughts

The key to the Republican Iowa caucus is Ben Carson. If his vote stays where it is now, it's to close to call, but that would make Cruz 'value' (which is of course different to the winner). If his vote rebounds, Trump wins. If he vote continues to fall, Cruz probably knicks it. Where is bottom Carson?

Ever since the end of November there has been a very strong correlation between Cruz and Carson

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html

The same pattern appears across the other states being polled too (you can select these from the drop down). We have a bit of insight on the right wing here. These two candidates are seemingly strongly correlating, whereas Trump tends to be much of an architect of his own ratings. It suggests that there is a body of opinion on the Cruz/ Carson axis which amounts to anyone but Trump and that support will transfer between the two, and ultimately to one of them (probably Cruz) when the other is knocked out

Another thing that might worth noting (I think I'm correct) in saying that registered Democrats can caucus for a Republican?

<blockquote data-quote="Warbler" data-source="post: 2523138" data-attributes="member: 65228">Couple of other thoughtsThe key to the Republican Iowa caucus is Ben Carson. If his vote stays where it is now, it&#039;s to close to call, but that would make Cruz &#039;value&#039; (which is of course different to the winner). If his vote rebounds, Trump wins. If he vote continues to fall, Cruz probably knicks it. Where is bottom Carson?Ever since the end of November there has been a very strong correlation between Cruz and Carson<a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html" target="_blank">http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html</a>The same pattern appears across the other states being polled too (you can select these from the drop down). We have a bit of insight on the right wing here. These two candidates are seemingly strongly correlating, whereas Trump tends to be much of an architect of his own ratings. It suggests that there is a body of opinion on the Cruz/ Carson axis which amounts to anyone but Trump and that support will transfer between the two, and ultimately to one of them (probably Cruz) when the other is knocked outAnother thing that might worth noting (I think I&#039;m correct) in saying that registered Democrats can caucus for a Republican?</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Warbler, post: 2523138, member: 65228"] Couple of other thoughts The key to the Republican Iowa caucus is Ben Carson. If his vote stays where it is now, it's to close to call, but that would make Cruz 'value' (which is of course different to the winner). If his vote rebounds, Trump wins. If he vote continues to fall, Cruz probably knicks it. Where is bottom Carson? Ever since the end of November there has been a very strong correlation between Cruz and Carson [url]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html[/url] The same pattern appears across the other states being polled too (you can select these from the drop down). We have a bit of insight on the right wing here. These two candidates are seemingly strongly correlating, whereas Trump tends to be much of an architect of his own ratings. It suggests that there is a body of opinion on the Cruz/ Carson axis which amounts to anyone but Trump and that support will transfer between the two, and ultimately to one of them (probably Cruz) when the other is knocked out Another thing that might worth noting (I think I'm correct) in saying that registered Democrats [U]can[/U] caucus for a Republican? [/QUOTE]

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