Far too many things Trump has done previously have drawn down predictions of error in judgement, but the story to date is that he defies all of them, often going onto benefit.
Governor Reagan ducked out for reasons of risk avoidance. Trump is refusing to take part over a point of petty principle (albeit he'll portray it as a gallant stand). Who is Megyn Kelly? sweet little blonde? or a face of evil Fox trying to dicate terms? The relationship between media and the political classes of America is already under withering scrutiny and viewed through the prism of deep cynicism. There are no shortage of voters who think that the big broadcasters already shout "jump" and the politicians only enquire as to "how high?". If he spins it right, he could get away with this. America will welcome a candidate prepared to stand up against media management
Personally I think Trump's reasoning is limp in honesty. Her questioning of him was perfectly fair, but as I noted a few posts back, this whole little episode encapsulates so much about Trump, the thin skinned, the bully, the vindictive. He'll claim he was vindicated if Fox's ratings fall. Of all the many disturbing traits he exhibits, its this continual use of approval proxy's (some of them extremely tenuous) and confusing these as evidence of factual vindication, that I find most bizzarre
The Ch4 programme showed a little snippet of it when Jeb Bush was targetting him and his only defence was "I've got 39, you're on 3 Jeb" - Jeb was actually higher and Trump was trying to goad him into say something like six, so that he could apologise and then further belittle his true figure. Bush didn't fall for that trap admittedly and just told him that he proved nothing and that he couldn't insult his way to the White House (in other words he'll have to engage with the substance eventually). By then though .....
It was widely accepted in the last debate that Trump put up his best performance. He's getting better at the format, but both Cruz and Fiorina would fillet him if allowed to launch one on one.
This one has legs, but I don't see how Trump can back down, and neither can Fox remove Kelly (nor should they). There was some rumour doing the rounds last night that CNN were gearing up to cover the Trump event (not sure they're allowed to? albeit they might call it a news item, in which they probably could).
Trump might have been able to turn this round had his justification not been so flimsy and pathetic. Just taking a look at the vox pops though stateside, and most of them are admiring of him for saying I don't need your publicity, and no I won't dance to your tune, who do you think you are. They're also starting to laugh at Fox who are getting the begging bowl out. Remember there's a lot of people who'd like to see Fox News bought down a peg or two as well
