Betting update then
Just spent about 90 minutes trawling (and getting lost in) various American political subreddits in an attempt to take the temperature. Probably read more opinions now than the average American pollster would pass off as a sample. God I wished I hadn't!
I've seen perfectly well reasoned and argued explanations with supporting evidence to indicate that Trump wins by a landslide, and equally sound justification for suggesting he's coming a well beaten fourth or fifth tailed off
There's only one thing that everyone seems to agree on, and that concerns the totally unproven nature of his vote. There's also a strong concensus (though not ovrerwhelming) that the absence of a ground presence is going to hurt him in a caucus (won't be so damaging in a primary) but he is probably going to suffer for lack of plausible and convincing advocates in meetings willing to make his case.
So we have a short price odds on, about an unraced novice who has reportedly schooled well at home? Anyone heard this fable before? Anyone know through experience what tends to happen to these sorts when they first race against some proven performers?
I think the value therefore is Marco Rubio 25/1 (Skybet) and a collapse of the moderate GOP vote all piling into one candidate. It might also be worth laying Trump for a place (or however you might place that bet). This is possibly the best chance you'll get. There is a huge question mark over his vote, and a fair amount of opinion being expressed (some of it very confident) that the whole house built on sand could come down very quickly. I should say that many of the people making these predictions openly admit that they've been saying this for months, and happily acknowledge he keeps defying them. They also admit that even if this were to happen, he could claim a moral victory of sorts given what he's already achieved!
I should say too there is a 80/20 view that Trump has likely made a serious error of judgement over this Megyn Kelly protest with Fox. Many of those suggesting this equally accept that they've said it before and been wrong, but this time he's managed to snub the voter in the process, embroiling them in what looks like a silly childish game. I don't detect there's any sympathy for Fox News, and had he chosen better territory to grandstand on he might have pulled off a major coup for the new breed, but he hasn't.
So there you have it. Trump to finish anywhere in the first five. To record a landslide. Or to be beaten out a place tailed off.
From a betting perspective, he's a very poor favourite in Iowa though, but stands a much better chance going right handed at New Hampshire
I can honestly say, I'm very confused by the Iowa picture. There are a lot of moving parts involved, and when this happens surprises occur
