Man I hope you are not pinning your decision making based solely on what you read on Reddit message boards. Regardless of that I'd agree with you that 25/1 for Rubio is quite a good price. I also make him around a 7-8/1 shot to pull an upset. Having said that I don't think it will happen. Where you have an 80/20 split favoring Trump hurting his chances by not showing, my research is almost the mirror image of that. The main reason being that he had nothing to gain from that debate and after watching Megan Kelly expose Cruz and to a lesser extent Rubio on the immigration issue along with catching Christie, with cold hard facts, on a blatant embellishment of what neighbors had stated about the San Bernardino shooters before their violence took place, it looks to me like Trump made the right decision in the short term.
Rubio could turn out to be the candidate that runs as the GOP nominee though because he looks like he might have crossover appeal. Trump is plateaued in my book. If he does somehow win the nomination then I see a bloodbath for the Republicans. I simply refuse to believe that there will not be a major exodus of Republican voters to the sidelines should he be nominated which would pretty much gift the presidency to the Dems even with such unsatisfactory options. I like Bernie (he punches in a different weight class to Corbyn) but there are segments of American society which he has simply not reached, African Americans and Hispanics for starters, which leaves Clinton. Once we move on to South Carolina and beyond her "machine" should be able to take over but if not and this turns out to be more contentious then anticipated then who knows maybe a brokered convention on the horizon.
As for some of your other points it is generally acknowledged that Cruz is all in in Iowa with undoubtedly the most comprehensive ground game and not Rubio. The turnout in caucuses is normally very low (120-130K) and if it is at those levels then Cruz’s ground game makes him the favorite but if it is true on the Republican side that Carson has 40 thousand voters lined up then this will make for some interesting dynamics. This would also seem to indicate much higher voter turnout which conventional wisdom has it will favor Trump. Sanders has basically conceded if he does not get a strong voter turnout. The Dems had a record turnout in 2008 of about 240K.
As for Michael Bloomberg, while America is not a nation of fascists or socialists, Hugh Hewitt one of the few credible conservative talk radio guys was on Charlie Rose last night and made a very cogent case for Bloomberg as a no hoper if he were to emerge as a nominee. The core argument being that five states where it is tight which all voted Dem last time would swing due to his tough gun regulation stance. Looking at Pennsylvania and Colorado as two of those and he has a very strong case. Americans love them their guns.
As to your quote that “Iowa's one of these Midwest type agricultural semi backwaters” Ouch! There aren’t actually that many farmers left in Iowa.
You’ll get a good indication of where your bet is going when Ann Selzer releases her poll results to the Des Moines register tomorrow evening CST.
This particular election with the Trump card and the accompanying squabbling with Fox News is fascinating entertainment; add a self-proclaimed socialist who is creating some real buzz and it promises to be a few memorable months ahead.
