I wouldn't say "definitely", Iowa is a particularly unrepresentative state, and was never natural Trump territory. His camp will probably argue he's done quite well, and at one level he has, but expectations had run away with him, so at another level he hasn't. He's also had his own self-pedalled myth of being an invincible winner punctured
Conventional wisdom up until now had been that the moderates (I use the term loosely) were the divided wing, and what you might call the 'sensible' vote was being split. If you look at the figures from Iowa though, the extremists still hold sway
Cruz 28%
Trump 24%
Rubio 23%
Carson 9%
That's 61% there
We might expect the likes of Huckerbee, Santorum, and Fiorina, to exit after New Hampshire. Kasich and Christie have gone all in there and could conceivably follow them before South Carolina. Logic says that a majority of their support will gravitate towards Rubio, possibly with the crippled Jeb Bush picking up some scraps. The Godist supporters of Santorum and Hukerbee however will probably go to Cruz.
By now Rubio could well be polling top of the tree. A lot is going to depend on how the support of the other right wing candidates identify themselves
Carson is another Godist, if this is his primary appeal his supporters might well head Cruz's way too
Trump will probably be able to pick up some flag waving patirots, but won't be doing so in the same numbers as the others make their deal with the Lord
What we don't know is how many of the right wing extremists identify themselves through patriotism and philosophy? Once God has exhausted his endorsements, that's what should be left, and this probably fits the Trump narrative better than the others
All this assumes though that Cruz and Carson get knocked out. Both have cash, and won't be under immediate pressure to fold. The longer they stay in suits Rubio as the dynamics of the split vote transfers. It now becomes a right wing problem with little prospect of an accommodation between the protagonists. It would also be a mistake of course to assume that right wing voters will look for another right wing harbour to pitch up in. Some will be happy to go the Rubio route, who in another era (say the 1980's) would be considered extreme himself such has been the shift in the epicentre
I'm sure they'll be pouring over where Trump failed and you have to suspect it was down to boots on the ground and the nature of a caucus
He had a 5pt lead on the Selzer poll, and apparently held a similar lead on the CNN entry poll. By the time they came out though he was 4pts behind. Basically he'd suffered a 4.5% swing against inside the meetings. One suspects that various church influences were brought to bear as various community leaders (pastors) contributed vociferiously in favour of a vote for God (its medieval in places)
Most states vote in primaries rather than a caucus, this probably suits Trump better
Had he won Iowa then I think that we had to consider he could win just about anywhere. He hasn't, but his vote wasn't necessarily soft protestors either. Most of it turned out. I just think the undecideds and flakeys broke for God, in much the same way they did with Santorum and Huckerbee previously, and Pat Robertson of course who shcoked George H Bush, before normality was restored in New Hampshire
You would probably conclude that Rubio is the winner for now. If you were a GOP strategist you can't really see how someone like Cruz is going to win you Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Hampshire, Minnesota, or Virginia. In many respects Trump is preferable to Cruz
