You don't fool me, I reckon you're writing all this yourself
I'd have said timing becomes important now. We can anticipate a wave of candidates withdrawing. The sequence in which they withdraw probably becomes important as it forms something of a futures market.
It's too simplistic to say X withdraws and transfers to Y, but you can anticipate where the swell of their support might go. As that happens, new polls will be commissioned and published, and markets will form in response to these. As this happens further withdrawals become more likely as the opinion starts to lodge that X can't win, or is falling behind Y etc (albeit they normally require proof at the polls first)
Huckerbee and Santorum will pull out soon (well Huckerbee's already gone) but they should transfer to Cruz
Next up we will probably have Fiorina. She's believed to be canvassing a cabinet or VP nomination, logic says she'll endorse Rubio
One of Christie or Kasich will probably pull out after New Hampshire. I wouldn't be shocked to see Jeb get a small bounce off either, but will it be enough to keep his faltering campaign alive?. He too will need to make a decision but will wait until super Tuesday.
Of the right wingers Carson is supposed to be developing a media speaking career, and has a book planned etc He has the money to stay in, but is going to get a kicking in New Hampshire. Will his support flow to Cruz on the evangelical ticket, or Trump on the right wing ticket. I suspect most of it will go the former route
It leaves a field of Trump, Rubio, Cruz and Bush hanging on
I do wonder what it might take for the notoriously thin skinned Trump to pull out and shcok everyone? You sense that Jeb will hang in and roll with the punches, but I doubt Trump will be able to suffer too many defeats before he refuses to play any more, but what if he gets on a roll and starts winning? There's no good reason to think he's going to lose New Hampshire or South Carolina. There's a lot of things there which wouldn't apply to Iowa. He might be a bit more vulnerable in Nevada. Then we're into super Tuesday I think where mass media might be more of a factor
I'd have thought there will be betting opportunities spread across these states and candidates can't cover them all
Rubio has never really been scrutinised. There is a suspicion that he's a bit light weight. He's really quite inexperienced. Five years a Senator?
