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Yes, albeit 'can' and 'will' are different thresholds

I was never completely sold on Iowa, but if he did win there, we'd have proof that his vote was genuine. I think we've been left with as many question as answers as it turns out.

I don't think Iowa was ever something they were banking on, but it would have been a serious launchpad. If he fails in either New Hampshire or South Carolina then the answer has to be no. What if he wins one and is a close second in the other? Don't know, probably not.

I still think Trump will be the strongest of the right wing candidates (Carson and Cruz). Between the three of them, their votes add up to about 60%. The question therefore is will being the strongman of the right be enough to carry the nomination? It's too simplistic to expect that everyone who pulls out will serve their vote en-masse to the nearest compatiable alternative so we have to try and take some guesstimates on percentages

Somehow, Trump needs to knock Cruz out the race. I foresee four candidates going forward for the duration

In order

Rubio
Trump
Cruz
Bush

This is where a bit of horse trading and dealing might come into play. A Trump/ Cruz combo would probably stop the other two. I'm not sure a former Florida governor, and senator could form an easy to sell alliance. If Bush pulls out though (and most people think he will) the dynamic is shaken up a bit

<blockquote data-quote="Warbler" data-source="post: 2523230" data-attributes="member: 65228">Yes, albeit&nbsp; &#039;can&#039; and &#039;will&#039; are different thresholdsI was never completely sold on Iowa, but if he did win there, we&#039;d have proof that his vote was genuine. I think we&#039;ve been left with as many question as answers as it turns out. I don&#039;t think Iowa was ever something they were banking on, but it would have been a serious launchpad. If he fails in either New Hampshire or South Carolina then the answer has to be no. What if he wins one and is a close second in the other? Don&#039;t know, probably not.I still think Trump will be the strongest of the right wing candidates (Carson and Cruz). Between the three of them, their votes add up to about 60%. The question therefore is will being the strongman of the right be enough to carry the nomination? It&#039;s too simplistic to expect that everyone who pulls out will serve their vote en-masse to the nearest compatiable alternative so we have to try and take some guesstimates on percentagesSomehow, Trump needs to knock Cruz out the race. I foresee four candidates going forward for the durationIn orderRubioTrump CruzBushThis is where a bit of horse trading and dealing might come into play. A Trump/ Cruz combo would probably stop the other two. I&#039;m not sure a former Florida governor, and senator could form an easy to sell alliance. If Bush pulls out though (and most people think he will) the dynamic is shaken up a bit</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Warbler, post: 2523230, member: 65228"] Yes, albeit 'can' and 'will' are different thresholds I was never completely sold on Iowa, but if he did win there, we'd have proof that his vote was genuine. I think we've been left with as many question as answers as it turns out. I don't think Iowa was ever something they were banking on, but it would have been a serious launchpad. If he fails in either New Hampshire or South Carolina then the answer has to be no. What if he wins one and is a close second in the other? Don't know, probably not. I still think Trump will be the strongest of the right wing candidates (Carson and Cruz). Between the three of them, their votes add up to about 60%. The question therefore is will being the strongman of the right be enough to carry the nomination? It's too simplistic to expect that everyone who pulls out will serve their vote en-masse to the nearest compatiable alternative so we have to try and take some guesstimates on percentages Somehow, Trump needs to knock Cruz out the race. I foresee four candidates going forward for the duration In order Rubio Trump Cruz Bush This is where a bit of horse trading and dealing might come into play. A Trump/ Cruz combo would probably stop the other two. I'm not sure a former Florida governor, and senator could form an easy to sell alliance. If Bush pulls out though (and most people think he will) the dynamic is shaken up a bit [/QUOTE]

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