In today's news, Rand Paul drops out, and in the last hour Rick Santorum joins him. Santorum was expected and his miniscule support will probably go to Cruz. Paul's support is much more complicated. My own suspicion is that most of it will go to Gary Johnson (Libertarian Party). Of those that stay within the GOP umbrella, I'd expect Cruz to pick up most, with Rubio getting a few, and Trump perhaps getting a small share too.
Talking of Trump, he's now appealing for a re-run of Iowa because of Cruz's dirty tricks (perhaps he should make North Dakota pay for it?, or lock down the caucus room until he's worked the whole thing out). At one level the self-styled 'winner' looks like a bad loser, but it also ensures that Cruz and some of his slippery tactics remain in the headlines, as well as shore up his own core which should eb enough in New Hampshire.
Cruz has apologised, and Carson (the victim) has also criticised Cruz (another man of God of course) for his dishonesty. But this is politics Donald, if you can't handle the nasty side, go back to real estate - who's he trying to kid! Donald knows there's no chance of re run, so he's just trying to keep Rubio out the headlines and help create a narrative that Cruz is untrustworthy
So far betting purposes I thought I'd turn to the VP market instead
5/2 John Kasich - Compelling geopgraphic choice, covers key swing states of Ohio, and possibly Pennsylvania. Might get traction in New Hampshire too. Already advised at 8/1, if you've got him in the book well done
4/1 Marco Rubio - really? 20% accounted for by someone who could well win the nomination. I sniff an opportunity. Apart from anything, if he isn't the nominee, whose VP could he be? Trumps? I doubt it. Rubio will still have aspirations for 2020, does he want to risk the baggage that might come with being Trump's Veep? Hell, association with that White House could ruin a career
4/1 Nikki Haley - The fly in the ointment. She might benefit for not being in this current lousy field, and any negative attachments, but otherwise I don't know. Does she have the heavy experience? Can the GOP really run 2 candidates from minority backgrounds? have they ever done so? She does have a bit of Sarah Palin written all over her. These types of televisual candidates often generate short term poll bounces, but this quickly evaporate if they're suspected of being a bit lightweight. Due dillgence needed, and an open mind. There is a foreseeable experience deficit in the GOP ticket which compares poorly to a Clinton ticket. They might want to address this with someone more seasoned, or they might simply take the counter view recognising they can't match Clinton in this area, and deliberately field fresh young blood
8/1 Chris Christie - I doubt it. Don't see what he brings
10/1 Ted Cruz - One of the jobs of the VP is to help smooth the Washinton machinary. Cruz is hated, and possibly the worst person imaginable. He only gets the gig as a part of any deal. He couldn't be anyone's choice. The only person who might need to deal with him is Trump
12/1 Carly Fiorina - There might be some value here. In the last month in particular she's targetted Hillary Clinton, describing herself as the candidate Hillary would hate to face. I think so too. She's consistently been amongst the best debaters and lends gender balance to a ticket which the GOP might well need to negate Hillary a bit. She also lends a bit of business credibility, but has an experience deficit which has to be a major concern. She won't deliver California, but might be value as an attack dog to drag Hillary into an unedifying cat fight. Likely to be considered from a campaigners view point, but could struggle operationally once in Washington
16/1 Sarah Palin - I can't imagine that anyone who has previously failed, and indeed been held to be responsible for that failure could ever be considered. Hell she couldn't even serve out a term in Alaska. No freaking chance. She's aligned to Trump, and he might be unpredictable, but he ain't stupid
20/1 Paul Ryan, Rob Portman and Lindsey Graham - I can't throw much light on these other than Graham was knocked out early. No angle from me
25/1 Mitt Romney - Oh come on
25/1 Jeb Bush - Bush would probably be an asset to a back room team working the corridors once in power, but he'd be a handicap to any campaign on evidence to date. In any event, whose Veep could he be? Rubio's? I doubt it. I don't think having two Floridans is going to work, and in any event, Rubio would reckon he could carry the sunshine state without having introduce a raincloud. Trump would just flush him down the toilet, and would he really fancy being Cruz's bitch. Again, I can only see him in play as part of a deal to step down, but right now you'd reckon no nominee need find they have to make that deal. They can probably allow him to run his course and drop out
On the Democrat side I think we can consider taking a punt on Tim Kaine at 10/1. Call it a hunch. I don't see how Hillary can take Bernie Sanders very easily. It's alright saying that Bernie is popular with young voters and she ain't. What they really disguises though is that Bernie's policies are popular. If he's on her ticket he won't be able to offer that anymore and you somehow suspect his popularity will start to disappear. Elizabeth Warren unbalances the ticket gender wise, a risk they don't need to take. Julian Castro might be favourite but this is based on a bit of Clinton double speak I reckon. If he's ultimately seen to be a poor imitation of Rubio, he'll become a liability. Again a risk they don't need to take
You probably don't need much imagination to see that the Democrats are going to go big on experience. Kaine is a former governor of Virginia which doesn't do his prospects any harm, and now a senator (albeit not necessarily that experienced). If they're facing anyone of Rubio, Trump, or God forbid Cruz, there is something of an experience deficit there. Are you really ready for the Oval office after one term in the Senate, without having been a state governor to bolster this qualification? I can see that kaine has appeal over any of the prospective Republican nominees
