Value in NH

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FrogTheBountyMuncher

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Is it me or does every race seem like a short priced horse wins? There's no edge, everyone seems to know what conditions 95% of the horses need and when a 8/1 or bigger comes in its more than likely because the favourite fell or run below par.

On the flat the bookmakers don't know we're they stand because the distribution of quality information and the variety of information makes it impossible to control the population of horses in that season.
 
FrogTheBountyMuncher said:
Is it me or does every race seem like a short priced horse wins? There's no edge, everyone seems to know what conditions 95% of the horses need and when a 8/1 or bigger comes in its more than likely because the favourite fell or run below par.

On the flat the bookmakers don't know we're they stand because the distribution of quality information and the variety of information makes it impossible to control the population of horses in that season.
Click to expand...

NH horses are in training longer, their form is easier to access, simply because there is more of it.....
 
FrogTheBountyMuncher said:
Is it me or does every race seem like a short priced horse wins? There's no edge, everyone seems to know what conditions 95% of the horses need and when a 8/1 or bigger comes in its more than likely because the favourite fell or run below par.
Click to expand...

Explain this race then:
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/re...lts_top_tabs=re_&results_bottom_tabs=ANALYSIS

You had a 7/2 shot who had perfect conditions and arguably should have been favourite over an animal who had fallen last time out.

You had a runner-up who had his perfect conditions in the race, had won at the track the previous year, and yet was allowed to trade at 14/1 because he'd run poorly at the Festival - a course he wasn't suited to over fences.

The more form that is out there the more chance it has to be wrongly assessed. And with National Hunt horses perceptions sometimes seem set in stone and so horses are inevitably wrongly priced. And then you have the factor of punters/media taking way too much notice of what trainers say, or wrongly interpreting it.
 
What is there to explain Euro? You've just reinforced my sentiments, 7/2 is hardly going to buy you that BMW 3 series coupe.
 
Euronymous said:
Explain this race then:
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/re...lts_top_tabs=re_&results_bottom_tabs=ANALYSIS

You had a 7/2 shot who had perfect conditions and arguably should have been favourite over an animal who had fallen last time out.

You had a runner-up who had his perfect conditions in the race, had won at the track the previous year, and yet was allowed to trade at 14/1 because he'd run poorly at the Festival - a course he wasn't suited to over fences.

The more form that is out there the more chance it has to be wrongly assessed. And with National Hunt horses perceptions sometimes seem set in stone and so horses are inevitably wrongly priced. And then you have the factor of punters/media taking way too much notice of what trainers say, or wrongly interpreting it.
Click to expand...

Wish I could, thank god for my pin :lol:
 
FrogTheBountyMuncher said:
Is it me or does every race seem like a short priced horse wins? There's no edge, everyone seems to know what conditions 95% of the horses need and when a 8/1 or bigger comes in its more than likely because the favourite fell or run below par.

On the flat the bookmakers don't know we're they stand because the distribution of quality information and the variety of information makes it impossible to control the population of horses in that season.
Click to expand...

So...

Can you explain why there were only 4 winning favourites from 14 races at Sandown and Wincanton yesterday and winners at 25/1 (x2), 14/1 and 17/2?
 
Euronymous said:
Explain this race then:
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/re...lts_top_tabs=re_&results_bottom_tabs=ANALYSIS

You had a 7/2 shot who had perfect conditions and arguably should have been favourite over an animal who had fallen last time out.

You had a runner-up who had his perfect conditions in the race, had won at the track the previous year, and yet was allowed to trade at 14/1 because he'd run poorly at the Festival - a course he wasn't suited to over fences.

The more form that is out there the more chance it has to be wrongly assessed. And with National Hunt horses perceptions sometimes seem set in stone and so horses are inevitably wrongly priced. And then you have the factor of punters/media taking way too much notice of what trainers say, or wrongly interpreting it.
Click to expand...


But that's just after timing!
 
FrogTheBountyMuncher said:
Is it me or does every race seem like a short priced horse wins? There's no edge, everyone seems to know what conditions 95% of the horses need and when a 8/1 or bigger comes in its more than likely because the favourite fell or run below par.

On the flat the bookmakers don't know we're they stand because the distribution of quality information and the variety of information makes it impossible to control the population of horses in that season.
Click to expand...

Could you stop clogging up the forum with this drivel please.
 
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