Weds 25th Feb - Today's Bets, Betting, Race & Runner Analysis + Future Pointers

[chaumi]

No time to list out properly. It's spring!! The garden is calling, still have a fair few plants to move around before they start active growth. Cut the grass yesterday. In February? After it's been near pissing down every day for a month? Crazy, but it was dry enough.

Anyway, here's the list, missing full names in places. Plenty here that will go unbacked, but one or two might be worth small bets depending on prices and results of further checks

Probably the most interesting is Nick Gifford's Hello Fortune. 3.20 Wincanton. I noted that this one held on to the lead for a lot longer than seemed likely in the Lingfield heavy-ground 2-mile maiden on 5th Feb. Now pitched straight into a handicap, right at the foot of the weights. And up to two-and-a-half. Was surprised to see 25s with a couple, now generally blue, around 33 on the exchange. I think a win is unlikely, there are a handful that look OK. But the run will be interesting, especially if James Davies tries to make all.

Others...

galassian 3.00

carrigmoorna R 4.30

galop 5.00

lots to watch 150

man made/adaayd 2.20

Phantom Getaway 2.50

life after love 142 (likely the draw won't help, but may have enough)

harry dont bite 312

miraflores 342 (maybe one last chance to make all, but want at least double figures, ideally beginning with more than a 2. Early prices suggest that's not going to happen)

unknown journey 412

Happy Lady/Hot & Beauty 12.27 Chantilly

Automated 11.10 Hong Kong

Sword Point 11.40

Autumn Vibes 12.40

Outgate 2.50

Telling Time 5.05 Kempton (will have to beat AW Dave's selection...so hopes aren't high!!)

 

[luckyme]

FWIW

14:00 Bangor-on-Dee
Longhouse Gem
2/1 (bet365)
"Longhouse Gem was a promising staying-on 3rd in an Irish point in December. She has shown up well in her work since joining us and we hope she can compete with the more experienced favourite from the Greenall/Guerriero yard."

14:50 Wincanton
Phantom Getaway
6/1 (bet365)
"Phantom Getaway is a frustrating horse who has the ability to win this if he puts his mind to it. We have changed jockey and headgear and left off the tongue-tie in the hope all that might make a difference."

17:05 Kempton Park
Telling Time
"Telling Time comes back a furlong from his last run at Wolverhampton and that should help him settle as he can be quite free. Each-way chances on the earlier 3rd over 7f on that track. "

 

[chaumi]

Well, not a terrible start.

• Missed the first two HK runners, but they did nothing anyway.
• Autumn Vibes ran a nice 3rd at 40-1, but only 7.5 on the HK tote for the place. Expected higher off a string of duck eggs, left the place money on the table.
• The two in France ran 2nd and 3rd at 11-1 and 7-1, nowhere near big enough to be carrying any pennies.

One in HK later to go, will be leaving Outgate (2.50) alone unless well in the 20s or higher.

***************

I do think Telling Time has more than just Dave's Electrocution to beat (5.05 Kempton). 10s won't be big enough to risk it, though there's an outside chance of high teens on the exchange come race time. That might make it more palatable.

Harry Don't Bite 3.12 Ling and Stapleford Park 4.42 look the only chances of a big winner today. Two out in Stapleford's race and he's still 66-1 in a 7-runner field.

Venetia's in the 5.00 looks to have as good a chance as anything in what's now a 4 runner race, which makes the current 9-1 seem overly generous.

Kim doesn't sound awfully confident about Phantom Getaway, but I know he rates the horse highly enough. Maybe today's changes will be enough.

 

[chaumi]

A pretty dire day with most of these today - most of the shorter priced runners that should have been competitive ran like donkeys. But that (in case you ever forget, Chaumi) is why it's utterly brainless to back anything in single figures. Except on maybe 3 or 4 occasions per season.

The last runner in HK won, but a crap price.

Stapleford Park went well green before the off, tried to make all but got swamped in the final 200 yards. Not sure where Michael goes with this one now.

Everything else was awful, except I spotted Miss Moonshine at mid 40s at the last second in Harry Don't Bite's race and figured that was way too big. Almost got it, one more stride and would have, but it looked to me she just hadn't made it - but the BF betting was (for about 10 seconds) heavily in my favour. Tried desperately to cash out for a fair enough chunk of the winnings, but kept failing. Probably fortunate in the end it was a dead heat. But at least that saved the day.

Nearly a disaster in the first at Kempton - was mildly keen on Mark Usher's two, eventually landing on Miss Birgma as the most likely. Sods law it was the other one - Grand Echo - that for a long way looked set to win. It was a relief to see something come over the top to do him.

 

[pawras]

A pretty dire day with most of these today - most of the shorter priced runners that should have been competitive ran like donkeys. But that (in case you ever forget, Chaumi) is why it's utterly brainless to back anything in single figures. Except on maybe 3 or 4 occasions per season.

The last runner in HK won, but a crap price.

Stapleford Park went well green before the off, tried to make all but got swamped in the final 200 yards. Not sure where Michael goes with this one now.

Everything else was awful, except I spotted Miss Moonshine at mid 40s at the last second in Harry Don't Bite's race and figured that was way too big. Almost got it, one more stride and would have, but it looked to me he just hadn't made it - but the BF betting was (for about 10 seconds) heavily in my favour. Tried desperately to cash out for a fair enough chunk of the winnings, but kept failing. Probably fortunate in the end it was a dead heat. But at least that saved the day.

Nearly a disaster in the first at Kempton - was mildly keen on Mark Usher's two, eventually landing on Miss Birgma as the most likely. Sods law it was the other one - Grand Echo - that for a long way looked set to win. It was a relief to see something come over the top to do him.

Any price can be a good or bad price, depends on your long term strike at those sort of odds
Eg I'm happy to back even money shots all day long if I know gonna have a strike over 50%

 

[chaumi]

Agreed. I should have said "it's utterly brainless for me to back anything in single figures".

Many will have (enough) successes. I just don't, historically.

 

[pawras]

Where as me and longshots don't mix that well too often