Weight Does Matter.

[Tout Seul]

i've been following a couple horses that are either owned by friends or by people I know well.

Standing in a saddling ring recently I was discussing a horse's chance and was told that it was very likely that it would run well because it was carrying a low weight. I gave the obvious response that it was up against better horses than it normally faced. The reply was that as it got older the horse, quite understandably, seems far less positive when carrying higher weights, so if he was in good nick and went up in the handicap they would just move up in class so that he carried a low weight. Basically I was told he'll think he's on holiday and he doesn't know that the competition is more highly rated than him.

I did put a bit more money on the account and he duly won. Just!

Looking at his record it neither provides support for the theory but doesn't squash it either. Is it a reasonable theory?

 

[granger]

Few things here tout

I initially thought you were questioning general handicapping

But i think your point is i that as horses age they need less of a weight so that it appears like an easier day at the office.

Basic rule of racing is you want to carry as little as possible but I think personally that once the resolution is gone light weights won't even spur on a horse

 

[Slim]

Betting horses in form with ideal conditions stepping up in class used to print money. Now the markets make them losing long term bets.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Yes, weight does matter.

Then again, sometimes it might not.

The laws of physics clearly tell us that weight matters but racing is an inexact science and not all horses are created equal.

People who have known me for long enough will recall my retelling how my father used to talk about Roman Warrior. He was a comfy winner of the Ayr Gold Cup under top weight, a handicap performance that marked him out as a G1 horse. However, my father laughed when I told him I fancied it for the July Cup. His argument was that it was so strongly built 10-0 wouldn't stop it from running at its own maximum speed, which was too fast for its rivals. But it couldn't run faster if you took weight off its back. It was well beaten in the July Cup because it just couldn't run fast enough.

Entirely coincidentally, I was thinking about speed figures this morning as I walked through Glasgow city centre. A couple of younger, taller guys overtook me (and I wasn't strolling) effortlessly and gradually kept pulling away from me at a constant rate. It reminded me of how Ken Hussey explained the thinking behind his speed figures.

But they don't take into account individual rates of acceleration or necessarily how weight affects them. Being taller, they may even have been heavier than me and I was probably giving at least 30 years but I'm not slow for my age.

I also recall, as a naive kid, backing Happy Medium in a valuable hcao chase at either Sandown or Ascot (either the Black & White or the Wm Hill) because he'd been running well enough off 12-7 in decent races but was off 9-7 this time. "He'll think he's running loose," I argued to the rest of the family. He duly won at 33/1. It was no more than beginners' luck for me, I now realise.

Wasn't Sea Pigeon unbeaten in handicaps (and he ran in plenty)? Why was that?

Phil Bull was clearly a generation ahead of his time. In converting ability into ratings based on pounds to create his own universal handicap he revolutionised form evaluation. All of the calculations could only be based on approximations but in the majority of situations they damn well work.

I think stats prove that higher-weighted horses do better than others. My own theory is that it's because not all races are true-run, therefore the better horses - generally - have better acceleration so their impost doesn't impact on them for as long as it would in a fast-run race.

 

[edgt]

Limestone lad was certainly unbeaten in handicap hurdles.
I remember kintai winning a Thyestes Chase in 78 ridden by Tommy Kinane who said that as a small horse he did better carrying light weights against better company than heavy weights against poorer .

 

[Tout Seul]

The horse I referred to is running today at Bangor 2.40 on a 4 timer. Aged 11 seems suddenly to have got the right idea. High Counsel is ridden by by young claimed Alex Thorne who certainly has made the effort to get to know him and to ensure he enjoys himself. Not a bad method and it’s proving pretty effective.
Most important that horse comes back well but definitely has a good chance today as last run was the best I’ve seen from him.