Weights, distances and ratings

P

Part time punter

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Now then team, I have a question and it would be interesting to gauge people's answers:

If a horse finishes say 10 lengths behind a group 1 winning horse what weight or ratings differential does that distance represent? Does that distance mean that the horse finishing that far back should win say a listed or class 2 race? I take it it is quite subjective and depends on how an individual sees the race was run and whether the horse seemed to be flat out or win cosily. I know there is a fair bit of debate on another thread about Sky Lantern but I'm trying to look at the horses in behind it to try and gauge what level they should be running or winning at for the future and I'm getting myself muddled. Can anyone help?
 
It's a bit of a how-long-is-a-piece-of-string question, isn't it.

First of all, there's the question of how far the race was. The shorter the race the greater the poundage per length. Then there's the question of how 'good' a G1 it was. Was it Frankel hitting 145 in first place or Oath hitting 118.

Sky Lantern was visually impressive but Simon Rowlands's sectional analysis argues that she got the best ride since the leaders went too quick. My time rating for her is a comparatively modest 112 after adjustment for wfa. The fifth home was only rated 95 but that one may have been under-rated in the first place. Then again, take out the winner and the runner-up would have looked fairly impressive in beating Just The Judge, coming from as far back as Sky Lantern but whose jockey elected to come through the pack and met trouble in so doing.
 
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ptp

As DO says, there are myriad interpretations of how strong form is, and even established ratings services will differ markedly on their figures for many races.
In the interest of keeping things simple, I'll give a thumbnail guide to the parameters the BHA themselves work to. As they're responsible for the Official Ratings, they're the most widely used and easiest to check.

1lbs per length

5f 3lbs
1m 2lbs
12f 1.5lbs
2m 1lb

Class of race

British handicaps are self -explanatory, with a ratings ceiling published for every race - bar the odd Heritage h/c. Those apart, the ceiling for a class 2 would normally be 105.

105/110 Listed class
110/115 gp3
115/120 gp2
120 plus gp1


(might not be word or figure perfect, but should serve as a starting point).
 
You can gauge the strength of the race by using the BHA pars and the par for the actual race taking place.
For instance the BHA par for a class 4 is 77, so if a class 4 has a par of 81, you would presume it was a strong class 4.

BJ Healy produced a booklet in the 80s called ' Profit From Weights Right' and he believed that the lbs per length scale to be flawed.

He said that 5f at Pontefract was different from 5f at Epsom.

One was mainly downhill whilst the other has a stiff uphill finish. He calculated that Pontefract deductions should be 3.62lbs per length over 5f whilst at Epsom it should be 4.04lbs per length.

I use speed figures compiled by a guy who knows his stuff and he uses a similar scale. I will see if he will come along and post. His theories are very good and they do work in practice.
 
MLMRob said:
He said that 5f at Pontefract was different from 5f at Epsom.

One was mainly downhill whilst the other has a stiff uphill finish. He calculated that Pontefract deductions should be 3.62lbs per length over 5f whilst at Epsom it should be 4.04lbs per length.
Click to expand...
I've never heard of him or it but I have a lot of sympathy with that view.

In fact, I experimented with something very much along those lines about 25 years ago myself, calculating the number of seconds per length at each distance on each course based on standard times but I gave it up as a few fractions here and there in the big scheme of things struck me as not seeing the wood for the trees: most winners are improvers.

It's something I do keep in the back of my mind though, when rounding up or down lengths beaten at those tracks.
 
The BHA have a Guide to Handicapping which explains in basic terms how the Official Ratings are calculated and adjusted:

http://www.britishhorseracing.com/inside_horseracing/about/whatwedo/HandicappingDetailedGuide2.doc

Their handicapping page is worth a look:

http://www.britishhorseracing.com/inside_horseracing/about/whatwedo/handicapping.asp

Timeform have a couple of articles on how they do it:

http://www.timeform.com/show_article.asp?num=3494
http://www.timeform.com/show_article.asp?num=166

and a few others worth a read:

http://www.timeform.com/display_articles.asp?page=About_Timeform.asp

Finally, Racing Research have some old articles on their site where they get into some of the theory:

http://www.racingresearch.co.uk/images/annual editorials.pdf
 
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