M
marbler
Guest
Lets start the discussion....
I'll provide the winner when I'm ready.
I'll provide the winner when I'm ready.
M
marbler
Guest
Or stick some value up rather..
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M
marbler
Guest
Mouse Morris has one dropped to a nice mark called Folsam Blue about 40/1 also entered in Ireland on same day.
Won on heavy ground with a low weight before and maybe history will repeat itself.
Won on heavy ground with a low weight before and maybe history will repeat itself.
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M
marbler
Guest
Bump...a genuinely great steeplechase this is, and the testing muddy conditions usually add to it.
Moehat, stick the winner up pls!
This could be like when we both had Dream Alliance at 33/1 for Phillip Hobbs.
Moehat, stick the winner up pls!
This could be like when we both had Dream Alliance at 33/1 for Phillip Hobbs.
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M
marbler
Guest
Cloonacool won today despite not looking fluent. If he gets in a rhythm over fences he could win a Racing Post Chase at Kempton next month.
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M
marbler
Guest
This is wrong. The RP Handicap Chase at Kempton is over 3 miles. Probably more of a Grand Annual type at the festival....
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Colin Phillips
At the Start
Weather has been very wet today unless we get some drying conditions it must be in doubt again.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
The jumps version of the St Leger
Yawn
Yawn
Tiny Clanger
At the Start
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2012
- Messages
- 383
I see where you're coming from with Folsom Blue and like it especially the 3 1/2 mile win in heavy and the cheekpieces look to have had an effect too.
That mudlark Chase the Spud is stepping up in distance but was very game last time out to come back for another go once headed, stepping up in class but getting weight advantage. Similar for Russe Blanc, 9yr old with low mileage on the clock who was due to run in the abandoned Sussex National.
Other than those for outsider bets would be checking Venetia W's Saroque, she might well put Aidy C on it
That mudlark Chase the Spud is stepping up in distance but was very game last time out to come back for another go once headed, stepping up in class but getting weight advantage. Similar for Russe Blanc, 9yr old with low mileage on the clock who was due to run in the abandoned Sussex National.
Other than those for outsider bets would be checking Venetia W's Saroque, she might well put Aidy C on it
M
marbler
Guest
Here goes..The market is broadly correct and Cogry and Upswing have favourite chances.
However, I'm drawn to an outsider with no weight on his back called Fourovakind E/W. I've no clue why this 11 year old horse has been so lightly campaigned in its career. He appears to stay long distance trips all-day, has ran at Chepstow half a dozen times and never been out of the first three, and his third place to David Pipe trained horse Soll when he carried a similar weight to what he does tomorrow (low 10 stones) is working out well. This fella is a big price and is in the capable hands of Nico De Boinville.
However, I'm drawn to an outsider with no weight on his back called Fourovakind E/W. I've no clue why this 11 year old horse has been so lightly campaigned in its career. He appears to stay long distance trips all-day, has ran at Chepstow half a dozen times and never been out of the first three, and his third place to David Pipe trained horse Soll when he carried a similar weight to what he does tomorrow (low 10 stones) is working out well. This fella is a big price and is in the capable hands of Nico De Boinville.
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There's three for me for this. Emperors Choice, Firebird Flyer, and Tour des Champs. I have the three clear on my ratings of the race and they come out almost identical. Splitting them is the problem, so I won't.
Emperors Choice 11/1 was my initial selection in a race where conditions look made for him. He has by far and away the most solid profile for the race and should place at least.
Firebird Flyer is weighted to finish alongside Emperors Choice from their running in the West Wales National and both appreciate a marathon slog. 25/1 is way too big and he looks like the value in the race. He also gets a nice pull in the weights with my third selection from the race where Tour des Champs came back after a spell on the sidelines at the course.
Tours des Champs is much better than his current mark. Jamie Bargary takes off a really useful 5lb's, and he will relish conditions and will be staying on when others have cried enough. 14/1 is too big for a horse that has useful form in some very good races, and has conditions and a course that suits. I do fear the bounce factor though.
All three come into the race in decent form and given the amount of stables off colour at the moment, Venetia's are still Flying, Evan Williams horses are running well now after a slow period, and Twister has been firing recently. In addition to backing them all each way I've done them in combination exacta's.
Emperors Choice 11/1 was my initial selection in a race where conditions look made for him. He has by far and away the most solid profile for the race and should place at least.
Firebird Flyer is weighted to finish alongside Emperors Choice from their running in the West Wales National and both appreciate a marathon slog. 25/1 is way too big and he looks like the value in the race. He also gets a nice pull in the weights with my third selection from the race where Tour des Champs came back after a spell on the sidelines at the course.
Tours des Champs is much better than his current mark. Jamie Bargary takes off a really useful 5lb's, and he will relish conditions and will be staying on when others have cried enough. 14/1 is too big for a horse that has useful form in some very good races, and has conditions and a course that suits. I do fear the bounce factor though.
All three come into the race in decent form and given the amount of stables off colour at the moment, Venetia's are still Flying, Evan Williams horses are running well now after a slow period, and Twister has been firing recently. In addition to backing them all each way I've done them in combination exacta's.
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archie
Senior Jockey
Two against the field for me would be Cogry and Red Devil Lads as the best fit for the stats who will go on the ground. Chase The Spud is probably better than being the rank outsider.
Not many horses will be more suited to the conditions of this than last year's winner Emperor's Choice and with Black Thunder staying in he has a carryable weight. He's worse off with Benevolio on that running but with the Nicholls' horses form I'll side with Venetia's runner at a current best priced 11/1.
Also think Woodford County has it in him to improve on last years performance with 9-12 on his back so will probably have an e/w interest on him too at c. 20/1.
Also think Woodford County has it in him to improve on last years performance with 9-12 on his back so will probably have an e/w interest on him too at c. 20/1.
tiggers1972
Senior Jockey
I'll do Venetia's pair.
TheBear
At the Start
- Joined
- Sep 23, 2013
- Messages
- 1,831
They're the two I like but a word of warning about the stats, specifically the age one. This race is usually run in the previous year so don't discount the 9 and 10 year olds.
archie
Senior Jockey
Good point.
Bob Ford for me.
Unlikely to be beaten for the lead to the first, specialises in unraceable ground, won when Rebecca Curtis's were finishing legless in all races, some mileage in his mark having lost form.
If on a going day (hardly certain) he wins for me.
Unlikely to be beaten for the lead to the first, specialises in unraceable ground, won when Rebecca Curtis's were finishing legless in all races, some mileage in his mark having lost form.
If on a going day (hardly certain) he wins for me.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,844
I'm of a mind that Black Thunder might be a bit of a good thing.
M
marbler
Guest
To carry 11:12 and win this you'd need many things going for you, which I'm not convinced Black Thunder has.
If there is one race in the jumps calendar where having a low weight can really count for something, its this race. I'm happy with Fourovakind.
BigRob's selection Portrait King is the one for money it seems.
Good luck all.
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Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,844
I disagree on nearly all counts, marble.
In nearly all handicaps, being well-handicapped counts for everything. In the better handicaps, class allied to being well in, is a big plus. In heavy ground, getting into a rhythm is more important than just about anything (something class horses find easier to do).
In the last 10 years, three winners have carried 11-0 or more and several high weights have been placed, including two in tight photo finishes.
There's a case for arguing that Black River is very well handicapped and for every pound of his claim Cobden is worth, it will help all the more here.
All the best with Fourovakind. He has the right jockey for getting into a rhythm and I think he can be placed but I would fear for the value of the form if he proved good enough to win.
I wrote elsewhere:
I really hope the ground doesn’t spoil this otherwise very competitive renewal. I’m more than happy with the big prices (50 & 48) for Black Thunder I hoovered up on Betfair during the week but they only total just under a tenner so even a win isn’t going to make me rich and I have laid it off at 16.5/1 for a free bet at a nice price. I’ve rated him as finishing alongside Upswing last time. He was making ground at the same rate when he blundered and Nicholls has fancied him for this race for a while. There was no jockey booked when I struck the bets and I reckoned the price would fall: a) if the horse was declared; b) if STD was booked; or c) if Cobden-and-claim were engaged. So for whatever amount of his claim he is worth – and Nicholls has said he would use him sparingly this season because of his claim – you can add that to his rating. In that same race I said at the time fans of Shotgun Paddy had every reason to be pleased with his effort as he was presumably some way short of his peak but ran enthusiastically for long enough. He has to be worth a saver. There are plenty others to like but the other bet is Firebird Flyer who was on a nice curve last season and looks to have been plotted up for something like this.
No doubt the usual suspects will accuse me of after-timing re the price but plenty on here know I identified BT after its last race and mentioned it the day I took the odds.
I'll be happy if I get an honest run for my money. That's all I really want at the end of the day.
In nearly all handicaps, being well-handicapped counts for everything. In the better handicaps, class allied to being well in, is a big plus. In heavy ground, getting into a rhythm is more important than just about anything (something class horses find easier to do).
In the last 10 years, three winners have carried 11-0 or more and several high weights have been placed, including two in tight photo finishes.
There's a case for arguing that Black River is very well handicapped and for every pound of his claim Cobden is worth, it will help all the more here.
All the best with Fourovakind. He has the right jockey for getting into a rhythm and I think he can be placed but I would fear for the value of the form if he proved good enough to win.
I wrote elsewhere:
I really hope the ground doesn’t spoil this otherwise very competitive renewal. I’m more than happy with the big prices (50 & 48) for Black Thunder I hoovered up on Betfair during the week but they only total just under a tenner so even a win isn’t going to make me rich and I have laid it off at 16.5/1 for a free bet at a nice price. I’ve rated him as finishing alongside Upswing last time. He was making ground at the same rate when he blundered and Nicholls has fancied him for this race for a while. There was no jockey booked when I struck the bets and I reckoned the price would fall: a) if the horse was declared; b) if STD was booked; or c) if Cobden-and-claim were engaged. So for whatever amount of his claim he is worth – and Nicholls has said he would use him sparingly this season because of his claim – you can add that to his rating. In that same race I said at the time fans of Shotgun Paddy had every reason to be pleased with his effort as he was presumably some way short of his peak but ran enthusiastically for long enough. He has to be worth a saver. There are plenty others to like but the other bet is Firebird Flyer who was on a nice curve last season and looks to have been plotted up for something like this.
No doubt the usual suspects will accuse me of after-timing re the price but plenty on here know I identified BT after its last race and mentioned it the day I took the odds.
I'll be happy if I get an honest run for my money. That's all I really want at the end of the day.