Desert Orchid
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I disagree on nearly all counts, marble.
In nearly all handicaps, being well-handicapped counts for everything. In the better handicaps, class allied to being well in, is a big plus. In heavy ground, getting into a rhythm is more important than just about anything (something class horses find easier to do).
In the last 10 years, three winners have carried 11-0 or more and several high weights have been placed, including two in tight photo finishes.
There's a case for arguing that Black River is very well handicapped and for every pound of his claim Cobden is worth, it will help all the more here.
All the best with Fourovakind. He has the right jockey for getting into a rhythm and I think he can be placed but I would fear for the value of the form if he proved good enough to win.
I wrote elsewhere:
I really hope the ground doesn’t spoil this otherwise very competitive renewal. I’m more than happy with the big prices (50 & 48) for Black Thunder I hoovered up on Betfair during the week but they only total just under a tenner so even a win isn’t going to make me rich and I have laid it off at 16.5/1 for a free bet at a nice price. I’ve rated him as finishing alongside Upswing last time. He was making ground at the same rate when he blundered and Nicholls has fancied him for this race for a while. There was no jockey booked when I struck the bets and I reckoned the price would fall: a) if the horse was declared; b) if STD was booked; or c) if Cobden-and-claim were engaged. So for whatever amount of his claim he is worth – and Nicholls has said he would use him sparingly this season because of his claim – you can add that to his rating. In that same race I said at the time fans of Shotgun Paddy had every reason to be pleased with his effort as he was presumably some way short of his peak but ran enthusiastically for long enough. He has to be worth a saver. There are plenty others to like but the other bet is Firebird Flyer who was on a nice curve last season and looks to have been plotted up for something like this.
No doubt the usual suspects will accuse me of after-timing re the price but plenty on here know I identified BT after its last race and mentioned it the day I took the odds.
I'll be happy if I get an honest run for my money. That's all I really want at the end of the day.
In nearly all handicaps, being well-handicapped counts for everything. In the better handicaps, class allied to being well in, is a big plus. In heavy ground, getting into a rhythm is more important than just about anything (something class horses find easier to do).
In the last 10 years, three winners have carried 11-0 or more and several high weights have been placed, including two in tight photo finishes.
There's a case for arguing that Black River is very well handicapped and for every pound of his claim Cobden is worth, it will help all the more here.
All the best with Fourovakind. He has the right jockey for getting into a rhythm and I think he can be placed but I would fear for the value of the form if he proved good enough to win.
I wrote elsewhere:
I really hope the ground doesn’t spoil this otherwise very competitive renewal. I’m more than happy with the big prices (50 & 48) for Black Thunder I hoovered up on Betfair during the week but they only total just under a tenner so even a win isn’t going to make me rich and I have laid it off at 16.5/1 for a free bet at a nice price. I’ve rated him as finishing alongside Upswing last time. He was making ground at the same rate when he blundered and Nicholls has fancied him for this race for a while. There was no jockey booked when I struck the bets and I reckoned the price would fall: a) if the horse was declared; b) if STD was booked; or c) if Cobden-and-claim were engaged. So for whatever amount of his claim he is worth – and Nicholls has said he would use him sparingly this season because of his claim – you can add that to his rating. In that same race I said at the time fans of Shotgun Paddy had every reason to be pleased with his effort as he was presumably some way short of his peak but ran enthusiastically for long enough. He has to be worth a saver. There are plenty others to like but the other bet is Firebird Flyer who was on a nice curve last season and looks to have been plotted up for something like this.
No doubt the usual suspects will accuse me of after-timing re the price but plenty on here know I identified BT after its last race and mentioned it the day I took the odds.
I'll be happy if I get an honest run for my money. That's all I really want at the end of the day.
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Grasshopper
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Winners rarely carry more than 10-9, and those that did, ended-up winning much better races.
I see no superstars in this field, and will therefore row-in with two lightweights in Fourofakind and our Des Champs. Neither are making any market-impact this morning, but both have winning form on Heavy ground at Chepstow, which is good enough for me. It could be a 4-finisher job today.
I see no superstars in this field, and will therefore row-in with two lightweights in Fourofakind and our Des Champs. Neither are making any market-impact this morning, but both have winning form on Heavy ground at Chepstow, which is good enough for me. It could be a 4-finisher job today.
EC1
On a break
the ground looking at the first race time isn't the worst of the last few weeks that other courses have suffered..its not nice obviously but Huntingdon other day was soft/hvy and was 55 lengths per mile slow...Cheltenham new years day was similar..Chepstow today looks about 45 lengths slow...so yes its testing...but not the complete quagfest other courses seem to turn into...Limerick for instance other day was a massive 105 lengths slow
M
marbler
Guest
I respect your experience in assessing and compiling ratings.
For what its worth, I'd be delighted if yours runs a cracker, I've nothing against the horse, and he is an e/w price I guess.
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EC1
On a break
its bouncing down at Chepstow..so it may yet turn into a quagfest..at least its the next race
bob ford + return spring..dutched for me
bob ford + return spring..dutched for me
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Cogry. 1.5 pts e.w.
Portrait King. 0.5 pts e/w.
Even though this race is often run in attritional conditions it does tend to conform to some strong statistical trends. Cogry fits most of them and he is our first selection. He makers just his eight start over fences this afternoon and his reappearance fourth, beaten just over two lengths in a Grade Three Handicap at Cheltenham was a sterling effort. That came over an extended 27 furlongs and he was arguably staying on better than anything. He was just behind Upswing there but his rival had the benefit of a previous outing and Cogry can reverse the form on almost the same terms here. He was a winner here in heavy ground over an extended 23 furlongs 13 months ago and he looks all about stamina. He has been raised two pounds since Cheltenham but a mark of 137 is unlikely to be the limit of his ability. His jockey's three pound claim takes him down to a nice racing weight of 10-8 and the only slight concern is his habit of making the odd mistake. If he puts in a relatively clear round he shouldn't be far away at the business end and the likely strong pace will sort out the suspect stayers. Our other selection is Portrait King who will have to bust a few recent stats if he is to win, namely his age and lack of track experience. However he is a big price for a horse who stays well and will handle the conditions. His best recent efforts came in the Grand national and over the same fences in the Becher Chase. He fell on both occasions but he was in the process of running big races and he has never fallen over more traditional fences in 15 starts. He has wins beyond three miles in both soft and heavy ground and was the winner of the Eider Chase off just a one pound lower mark in 2012. He has winning form on an undulating track and he hasn't been over-raced for an eleven year old. He is a very big price for one of his ability. Upswing is on our 12 to follow list but he may prefer less testing ground than bottomless.
Portrait King. 0.5 pts e/w.
Even though this race is often run in attritional conditions it does tend to conform to some strong statistical trends. Cogry fits most of them and he is our first selection. He makers just his eight start over fences this afternoon and his reappearance fourth, beaten just over two lengths in a Grade Three Handicap at Cheltenham was a sterling effort. That came over an extended 27 furlongs and he was arguably staying on better than anything. He was just behind Upswing there but his rival had the benefit of a previous outing and Cogry can reverse the form on almost the same terms here. He was a winner here in heavy ground over an extended 23 furlongs 13 months ago and he looks all about stamina. He has been raised two pounds since Cheltenham but a mark of 137 is unlikely to be the limit of his ability. His jockey's three pound claim takes him down to a nice racing weight of 10-8 and the only slight concern is his habit of making the odd mistake. If he puts in a relatively clear round he shouldn't be far away at the business end and the likely strong pace will sort out the suspect stayers. Our other selection is Portrait King who will have to bust a few recent stats if he is to win, namely his age and lack of track experience. However he is a big price for a horse who stays well and will handle the conditions. His best recent efforts came in the Grand national and over the same fences in the Becher Chase. He fell on both occasions but he was in the process of running big races and he has never fallen over more traditional fences in 15 starts. He has wins beyond three miles in both soft and heavy ground and was the winner of the Eider Chase off just a one pound lower mark in 2012. He has winning form on an undulating track and he hasn't been over-raced for an eleven year old. He is a very big price for one of his ability. Upswing is on our 12 to follow list but he may prefer less testing ground than bottomless.
EC1
On a break
2nd race = 66 lengths per mile slow..getting very bad with the rain now
you will be a brave man to back a top weight in this DO..good luck
you will be a brave man to back a top weight in this DO..good luck
EC1
On a break
grim stuff,,but they got through the ground..seen them come home more tired in eider at newcastle
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Desert Orchid
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Hard to know where BT might have finished but pleased with the runs I got from Shotgun Paddy and Firebird Flyer.
Fantastic race to watch!
Bob Ford was super out in front but probably did too much. I didn't think Mountainous could get back to his old level but he was very strong up the straight.
Firebird Flyer might have won had he not been asked to come from so far back in the conditions. The kind of ride that cost State Of Play a Grand National.
Fantastic race to watch!
Bob Ford was super out in front but probably did too much. I didn't think Mountainous could get back to his old level but he was very strong up the straight.
Firebird Flyer might have won had he not been asked to come from so far back in the conditions. The kind of ride that cost State Of Play a Grand National.
M
marbler
Guest
FOAK was running a cracking race for two and a half miles or thereabouts..after receiving a bash early.
He stopped quickly.
I wonder if he sustained an injury.
He stopped quickly.
I wonder if he sustained an injury.
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I think I covered my bets but didn't make anything. Didn't back the winner but pleased that he won for connections; Jaimie being one of my favourite jockeys. Also glad that Liam's horse did better than Aidan's. Sad to see Bob Ford fall having ran his heart out.
Desert Orchid
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The loose horse was Black Thunder, lobbing along, ears pricked, happily giving the winner a lead.
Having watched the race a few times I've now (perhaps deludedly) convinced myself Black Thunder would have won.
Grasshopper
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I think, yes, deludedly, DO.
He came down much too far out to be in any way confident, and carried a stopping-weight in desperate ground. If he had gotten round, he is much more likely to have finished upsides Shotgun Paddy, than he was the winner, imo.
He came down much too far out to be in any way confident, and carried a stopping-weight in desperate ground. If he had gotten round, he is much more likely to have finished upsides Shotgun Paddy, than he was the winner, imo.
Desert Orchid
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Of course he came down too far out to be confident but your mention of Shotgun Paddy merely backs up my opinion.
Black Thunder is officially 7lbs better than Shotgun Paddy. I actually believe he's another three or four pounds better than that. But he was carrying the same weight yesterday after the claimer's allowance. Nicholls, presumably a better judge of jockey than I am, went on record as stating that the claim was so valuable he'd be cherrypicking rides for him to maximise its value.
7lbs is about 14 lengths in yesterday's conditions.
14 lengths in front of Shotgun Paddy would be a neck in front of Mountainous. For every pound better than that he actually is, add another two lengths to the margin of victory.
Obviously it is far from as simple as that - credit me with some sense - but watch the race again. Black Thunder stays with Mountainous from the home turn, gets ahead of him and stays there to the line. But his ears were pricked and flicking the whole way. He was not stressing.
OK, obviously he didn't have a jockey on his back and that's why we'll never know.
In a similar vein, one I'll be watching for in future is Allez Vic. Having unseated at the second while still in rear, he gradually closed up on the main group for the rest of the circuit, stole ground round the inside going back out into the country and fairly scooted past the leaders on the outside rounding the home turn. He came wide out of shot up the hurdles course so I don't know where he finished but the last time I saw a horse do something like that it was Yes Tom in the big race at Doncaster (won by If In Doubt, if memory serves) and he came out and hacked up next time.
Black Thunder is officially 7lbs better than Shotgun Paddy. I actually believe he's another three or four pounds better than that. But he was carrying the same weight yesterday after the claimer's allowance. Nicholls, presumably a better judge of jockey than I am, went on record as stating that the claim was so valuable he'd be cherrypicking rides for him to maximise its value.
7lbs is about 14 lengths in yesterday's conditions.
14 lengths in front of Shotgun Paddy would be a neck in front of Mountainous. For every pound better than that he actually is, add another two lengths to the margin of victory.
Obviously it is far from as simple as that - credit me with some sense - but watch the race again. Black Thunder stays with Mountainous from the home turn, gets ahead of him and stays there to the line. But his ears were pricked and flicking the whole way. He was not stressing.
OK, obviously he didn't have a jockey on his back and that's why we'll never know.
In a similar vein, one I'll be watching for in future is Allez Vic. Having unseated at the second while still in rear, he gradually closed up on the main group for the rest of the circuit, stole ground round the inside going back out into the country and fairly scooted past the leaders on the outside rounding the home turn. He came wide out of shot up the hurdles course so I don't know where he finished but the last time I saw a horse do something like that it was Yes Tom in the big race at Doncaster (won by If In Doubt, if memory serves) and he came out and hacked up next time.
Desert Orchid
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Not necessarily "precisely". It's a strong possibility but it most certainly can't be taken as a given.
In terms of the herd instinct, some horses are happy to bowl along as a member of the pack, taking little out of themselves. Others' instinct is to lead the pack. Black Thunder is clearly a pack leader, a huge attribute once a horse gets to the front.
Go back and look at the Cheltenham race before that. He was ridden from the second half of the field - unlike yesterday - and was running on at the same speed as the eventual runner-up Upswing when he blundered two out. STD looked after him from then on but in my book he was joint-second and would probably have won if he'd been ridden more positively but Cheltenham was his prep for yesterday.
We might have to wait for the Warwick National now to find out one way or another.
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Grasshopper
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The horse was not carrying a jockey for the last mile-and a half, and any measurement you take from him is therefore worthless.
I cannot believe you are serious about this as reasoning for thinking BR would have won, DO.
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Desert Orchid
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That's not my reasoning. My reasoning is his ability relative to Shotgun Paddy.
Grasshopper
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Convenient, but a narrow interpretation, I fear, DO.
Where does he finish if you measure his ability relative to Benvolio?
The fact is that anything carting more than 11-0 was humped senseless, and the strong likelihood is that the same would have happened to Black Thunder under top-weight. Certainly, it's a much more likely scenario than him fighting out the finish with Mountainous, surely?
Where does he finish if you measure his ability relative to Benvolio?
The fact is that anything carting more than 11-0 was humped senseless, and the strong likelihood is that the same would have happened to Black Thunder under top-weight. Certainly, it's a much more likely scenario than him fighting out the finish with Mountainous, surely?
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EC1
On a break
last time BT ran on ground like that..he was beaten at level weights by a 144 hoss..who then got hiked up in handicap and is now back at 144
i'm not seeing him winning yesterday even if he had stood up tbh..add to that the comparison with SP isn't very realistic as that hoss has carried big weights in dire ground..he might just be a good weight carrier..and even he lost by 14..and could also be considered well in...so you have a hoss like SP..well in..can carry weights..beaten 14. Not seeing how a hoss beaten at level weights by a 144 hoss would have bettered him..especially as BT was weighted up to his best form too.
i'm not seeing him winning yesterday even if he had stood up tbh..add to that the comparison with SP isn't very realistic as that hoss has carried big weights in dire ground..he might just be a good weight carrier..and even he lost by 14..and could also be considered well in...so you have a hoss like SP..well in..can carry weights..beaten 14. Not seeing how a hoss beaten at level weights by a 144 hoss would have bettered him..especially as BT was weighted up to his best form too.
The ground was so testing yesterday that anything with weight to carry was at a big disadvantage, which is why Otago Trail's wide-margin win in the 2m4f handicap chases off a rating of 141 while carrying 11-12 is a notable performance. He's clearly a serious horse on heavy ground.