When Is A Stat, Just A Coincidence?

W

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In the last four renewals of Kempton's opener a total of 39 horses have lined up. Of these only one in each renewal, had won a hurdle race over at least 17F, in the month of December, on a right handed track, last time out. So how did they fair once they got to Kempton?

De Soto - won
Coat of Honour - won
Contraband - won
Lord Sam - won

This year only one horse again exhibits the trait, having won at 16F at Leicester LTO. Now admittedly I bent the stat a bit, as they'd be four failures who won over 18F and perhaps they need to be factored in too, as I'm struggling to believe that the additional 200 odd yards did for their chances.

Going back a bit further beyond 2002, three other horses exhibited the trait. One went on to be runner up and another came fifth. If we're prepared to consider Windsor something of an honourary right handed track then Grecian Dart, another qualifier of sorts, went on to win the race, completing a haul of 5 wins from 9 renewals. 55% of the winners came from some 13% of the runners.

Significant or just coincidence?
 
I examine trends like this and have a fair share of success, my approach would be to adopt the 17f rule in December but rather than require the win go for a first four place.

To my mind this excludes BB but lets in Evelith Echo.

If you're backing BB good luck, and thanks for the pointer.

MR2
 
Not really on topic, but my younger daughter told me yesterday that she and her boyfriend were going to Ellerslie races today, so I've had a coincidence bet on Ellerslie Ali in the last at Huntingdon.
 
Venusian, Surely that post is better served on another thread as opposed to this one.....talk about a contrast of punting methods!!!
 
Venusian,

It would be a terrible coincidence if your younger daughter's boyfriend had an ex named Charmaine Wood
 
Originally posted by Venusian@Dec 26 2007, 12:38 PM
Not really on topic, but my younger daughter told me yesterday that she and her boyfriend were going to Ellerslie races today, so I've had a coincidence bet on Ellerslie Ali in the last at Huntingdon.
Click to expand...
Chinned on the line apparently.
 
You can't be betting against these Double Triggers, Ven!! :D His progeny won both divisions of the bumper at Huntingdon yesterday and Russian Trigger won at Wincanton. He's got several useful looking animals coming through the ranks now which is great to see.

I want a whole yard of 'em!!!!!
 
I always greatly admired Double Trigger as a racehorse, but I could have done without his genetic legacy on this particular occasion!
 
Yes, I'm sure!!!! :D

He is such a lovely animal though and throws superb stock. Once the bank balance allows I'll be buying me a load of broodmares to send to him!!!!!!

Seriously though, they seem to inherit his toughness, talent and desire to get on with the job. You couldn't ask for a lot more in a racehorse.
 
If you do send a mare to him, make sure that you choose a mare with plenty of speed. With all Double Trigger's many admirable qualities, one thing that is lacking is speed.

There have been very few instances, if indeed there have ever been any, of a staying horse being a success at stud if they haven't shown reasonable form at 10 to 12f, or shorter. He'll always get his share of plodding winners, but to get class animals, whether on the flat or over jumps, there needs to be an injection of speed somewhere, and I'm afraid that particular attribute won't come from DT!
 
I'm only really interested in NH tbh, Ven - for which Double Trigger is ideal. You'd be surprised actually over the speed issue I'm sure - I'm closely involved with two DTs, one of which is out of a Strong Gale mare yet has won 2 bumpers and the other has shown plenty of speed (well, a high-cruising engine and a bit of class if not a turn of foot) at home despite being out of a slow point to point mare.

He's getting plenty of bumper winners as well which is good. I love the horse and the attitude he seems to impart to his offspring. Thanks for the advice though, it's appreciated!
 
Have to disagree there Venusian.

One of the worst things breeders do is try and speed up pedigrees. If its a stamina pedigree, piggin well put up with it being a stamina pedigree and try to breed class stayers with the hope they can run fast too.

Try to inject speed with a faster mare and what you get is something that doesn't stay and isn't quick either :P
 
I wasn't meaning to suggest sprint mares, UG, rather something with ability at around 8f to 10f. I agree mating extremes doesn't usually work.
 
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