Where's the Festival Value?

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Maruco

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The antepost market is ridiculously tight these days, and we tend to feed on scraps when the handicaps come out, but there are always some overlooked gems in the Championships and Novice Championships that are completely overlooked.

The first one for me is Le Prezien each way. It's not often a Nicholls horse is under the radar but he is a stonking each way bet. His form has been completely overlooked. The second is Messire des Obeaux. I think they've got the market completely wrong. His form stands out and 12/1 second favourite is solid each way.

So if the gun was to your head and you had to put up one or two horses each way at double figure odds name them any why, or alternatively if each way isn't your thing, which favourite is getting turned over and by what?
 
Messire Des Obeaux Neptune. Loved the way he jumped and travelled in the Challow and though I respect Finian's Oscar the race aint that deep.

Sizing John Ryanair. Best race to get involved in at present. Cue Card won't win, UDS will likely have the ground against him and others towards the head of the marker probably won't show up. SJ has good Cheltenham form and I like the way he stayed on behind Douvan the other day.

Djakadam Gold Cup. My brain still cannot compute Native River being half the odds of a horse who's placed twice in the race. W T F. Plus, Thistlecrack will empty up that hill, I feel it in my water.

Champers on Ice RSA. Runs on Saturday at Warwick. I don't like Bellshill, Our Duke is a worry on the jumping front, Might Bite I like but will he run in the RP Chase, ADO bled last time which is off putting even though I have him in my portfolio. COI is a a little bit of a reach but the race lacks substance.
 
Alpha Des Obeaux 20/1 RSA Considering the quality of novice chasers this season it's a bold statement to say he jumps a fence better than the lot of them, but I believe it. His run behind Thistlecrack in the World Hurdle last season looks very good now and they were absolutely miles clear of the rest. There are excuses for his runs this season and he'll be absolutely spot on for this. He's the best value in the Cheltenham ante-post market by quite some distance.

Zabana 20/1 Ryanair Undoubtedly a spring horse who was a leading contender for the JLT before that farce at the start. It's a very open race which could cut up quite badly but admittedly he is one who could go elsewhere. If he does stand his ground (and I think he will) then I can see him going off single figures.

Fav to get beat - Unowhatimeanharry Stayers Hurdle I put this up simply because I am convinced VVM will go for this race and win it rather than anything against the fav. Being convinced about where a Mullins/Ricci horse will end up may be pushing it but the vibes are that Mullins has convinced Ricci that she stays 3 miles and there's no sign of her going over fences this season. Even if Annie doesn't end up in the mares Willie has a few others to run in that race. PP have her at 5's NRNB which I still believe to be generous.
 
TheBear said:
Alpha Des Obeaux 20/1 RSA Considering the quality of novice chasers this season it's a bold statement to say he jumps a fence better than the lot of them, but I believe it. His run behind Thistlecrack in the World Hurdle last season looks very good now and they were absolutely miles clear of the rest. There are excuses for his runs this season and he'll be absolutely spot on for this. He's the best value in the Cheltenham ante-post market by quite some distance.
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I hope your right but the bleeding puts me off. Have him at 12s and was mulling over a top up but cannot pull the trigger with that concern. More of That bled in the RSA last year and although he ran ok in the Lexus I can't help but feel he's not the same horse.
 
I reckon Champers On Ice is an ideal sort for the 4-Miler, Euro - backed him for that a number of weeks back.

In terms of best-value, I like Kylemore Lough at 25/1 e/w in the Ryanair. Thought it was a mighty-run in the BetVictor all things considered, and his defeat of Outlander as a novice looks rosier with each race that passes. Connections have suggested he may be best right-handed, but I think it was put to bed last time.

He has a few lbs to find (plenty, in fact, if the real Cue Card shows-up), but he jumps great, and after only 8 starts in chases, there's still a chance he could improve......and there are about a dozen in the betting ahead of him, who are questionable runners, or at least have an alternative option.
 
Singlefarmpayment (RSA - 33/1), West Approach (Albert Bartlett - 20/1) and Arpege d'Alene (NH Chase - 16/1) all look overpriced to me.
 
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Champers On Ice was one I nearly put up for the RSA. I backed him for the race over Christmas. I didn't put him up though for the reason Grassy posted. I actually think he's perfect for the RSA, but I also have a sneaking suspicion they may go for the four miler.

I don't see Mouse going that way with Alpha de Obeaux though, not after he bled last time. I reckon he's a cert to go the RSA route unless he doesn't travel at all.

I agree both Sizing John and Zabana are both too big for the Ryanair. I'm really struggling to get my head around the race though and I can't quite push the button on either.
 
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I also meant to say that I'm also convinced VVM will go for the Stayers. That run with Clondaw Warrior felt like a Willie Mullins trial for both over Christmas.
 
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Euronymous said:
Messire Des Obeaux Neptune. Loved the way he jumped and travelled in the Challow and though I respect Finian's Oscar the race aint that deep.

Sizing John Ryanair. Best race to get involved in at present. Cue Card won't win, UDS will likely have the ground against him and others towards the head of the marker probably won't show up. SJ has good Cheltenham form and I like the way he stayed on behind Douvan the other day.

Djakadam Gold Cup. My brain still cannot compute Native River being half the odds of a horse who's placed twice in the race. W T F. Plus, Thistlecrack will empty up that hill, I feel it in my water.

Champers on Ice RSA. Runs on Saturday at Warwick. I don't like Bellshill, Our Duke is a worry on the jumping front, Might Bite I like but will he run in the RP Chase, ADO bled last time which is off putting even though I have him in my portfolio. COI is a a little bit of a reach but the race lacks substance.
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:D What a deranged statement

You did see last years World hurdle?

He could have gone round again

Twice
 
I'm happy enough with my two main ante-post bets for the Champion Hurdle: Sceau Royal 33/1 and Brain Power at 25/1. I also have Min at just over 190 but haven't even checked yet if he's entered, likewise Campeador at 86-and-change.

To be honest I haven't looked at many other markets as it isn't really my modus operandi.

I tend to wait until something puts up a performance good enough to win or go very close (assuming the price is okay) to winning the target race and then back it before the market latches on to it.

They don't qualify in terms of being a double-figure price but UNWIMH was a 'qualifier' first time up this season but was only 6/1 at the time and I let it go but I did take Fox Norton at 8/1 for the CC back in November.
 
Politologue 14/1 for the JLT. While he was only an average hurdler, I Just loved the way he travelled and jumped on his only 2 chase starts. Obviously on novice hurdle form he has loads to find on Yorkhill & Buveur Dair, but jumping is the name of the game! He's 8/1 in some places, which I think is the right price (especially if there is any cut in the ground), so 14/1 represents value imo, especially in Each way multis.
 
Double Handful said:
Politologue 14/1 for the JLT. While he was only an average hurdler, I Just loved the way he travelled and jumped on his only 2 chase starts. Obviously on novice hurdle form he has loads to find on Yorkhill & Buveur Dair, but jumping is the name of the game! He's 8/1 in some places, which I think is the right price (especially if there is any cut in the ground), so 14/1 represents value imo, especially in Each way multis.
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Chat is they wont go to cheltenham and leave him for next year.
 
I often struggle to find any value in the sexy races but events like the Cross Country (love it or hate it) and Foxhunters are a different matter.

Bless The Wings has finished second in a Kim Muir and "second" in this at the past two festivals. His second in this saw Quantatitiveeasing 5l behind and Cantlow well beaten off. Cantlow could well have improved significantly but he'll be 10lb worse off with BTW for the 9l beating he gave him here earlier in the season. And Cantlow is a best priced 4/1 while BTW is available at 16/1. That's a great e/w price.

Similar sentiments apply to Any Currency who can be backed at 12s. Age isn't necessarily a barrier to success in this but his record in this event means there is no way he should be that price, despite now being a 14 year old. He's performed pretty badly in regular races so far this season though and while no doubt he'll appreciate being back in this company BTW's performances in the Paddy Power and Troystown were, by contrast, full of encouragement and the more sprightly 12 year will be better served by the extra distance than those races.

There are very few doubts about which race he'll go for - unless they decide to skip the festival altogether and head for Aintree - and I really believe the 16/1 e/w is the best value out there for a horse with a real chance of winning.
 
wilsonl said:
I often struggle to find any value in the sexy races but events like the Cross Country (love it or hate it) and Foxhunters are a different matter.

Bless The Wings has finished second in a Kim Muir and "second" in this at the past two festivals. His second in this saw Quantatitiveeasing 5l behind and Cantlow well beaten off. Cantlow could well have improved significantly but he'll be 10lb worse off with BTW for the 9l beating he gave him here earlier in the season. And Cantlow is a best priced 4/1 while BTW is available at 16/1. That's a great e/w price.

Similar sentiments apply to Any Currency who can be backed at 12s. Age isn't necessarily a barrier to success in this but his record in this event means there is no way he should be that price, despite now being a 14 year old. He's performed pretty badly in regular races so far this season though and while no doubt he'll appreciate being back in this company BTW's performances in the Paddy Power and Troystown were, by contrast, full of encouragement and the more sprightly 12 year will be better served by the extra distance than those races.

There are very few doubts about which race he'll go for - unless they decide to skip the festival altogether and head for Aintree - and I really believe the 16/1 e/w is the best value out there for a horse with a real chance of winning.
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When are the entries for the X-Country? I really like Delight My Fire who would have given Cantlow a proper race if not falling when going very well. She is 20s on b365 but not mentioned with others.....
 
Sizing John up in trip for the Ryanair strikes me as really good value

ADO strikes me as a good bet based solely on who trains him and how he campaigns his horses
 
Truncheon said:
:D What a deranged statement

You did see last years World hurdle?

He could have gone round again

Twice
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The Gold Cup is a totally different ball game. He's an enthusiastic, bold jumper and I have a hunch these traits may take it out of him in a way it just wouldn't over hurdles.
 
Digger said:
Chat is they wont go to cheltenham and leave him for next year.
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Cheers Digger. Thankfully I hadn't committed to a bet just yet. I'll hold off so. I'd be disappointed if he didn't show up at Cheltenham, but considering he was 20th in the coral cup last festival on good ground, maybe they felt that took a lot out of him.
 
Euronymous said:
Messire Des Obeaux Neptune. Loved the way he jumped and travelled in the Challow and though I respect Finian's Oscar the race aint that deep.

Sizing John Ryanair. Best race to get involved in at present. Cue Card won't win, UDS will likely have the ground against him and others towards the head of the marker probably won't show up. SJ has good Cheltenham form and I like the way he stayed on behind Douvan the other day.

Djakadam Gold Cup. My brain still cannot compute Native River being half the odds of a horse who's placed twice in the race. W T F. Plus, Thistlecrack will empty up that hill, I feel it in my water.

Champers on Ice RSA. Runs on Saturday at Warwick. I don't like Bellshill, Our Duke is a worry on the jumping front, Might Bite I like but will he run in the RP Chase, ADO bled last time which is off putting even though I have him in my portfolio. COI is a a little bit of a reach but the race lacks substance.
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Djakadam is a bit of a cliff horse for me, so I find it difficult to be objective, but I totally agree with the above.
 
Digger said:
When are the entries for the X-Country? I really like Delight My Fire who would have given Cantlow a proper race if not falling when going very well. She is 20s on b365 but not mentioned with others.....
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You won't see any entries for this for a few weeks, I suspect.

Any bet now is a punt based on the expectation of a run. As far as the one Lee has pulled-out is concerned, it's a reasonable expectation, considering he ran well in it last year, and would be ruled-out of pretty-much every other race at the Festival, on either class or trip grounds.
 
That's very true Grass and in addition to the possible uncertainty around her participation, while Delight My Fire looked to be enjoying herself last month it has to remembered she was receiving 19lb from the eventual second Bless The Wings and with this now being a level weights event she'll be 12lb worse off in March - assuming this race carries the traditional 7lb mares allowance.
 
The two new kids on the block that have impressed me most this season are Petit Mouchoir and Charlie Parcs

The latter describes as real class by his trainer and the former for me is the biggest improver over hurdles we have seen this season.

I can see value in an EW double 8/1 and 8/1.... 1/4 odds 80/1 the double 8/1 the place

A bit of conjuring with singles ew and staking you could limit losses if only one was placed
 
No doubting either of their respective abilities but there has to be a risk in backing Charli Parcs e/w because it's looking 50/50 as to which race he goes for.
 
Double Handful said:
Cheers Digger. Thankfully I hadn't committed to a bet just yet. I'll hold off so. I'd be disappointed if he didn't show up at Cheltenham, but considering he was 20th in the coral cup last festival on good ground, maybe they felt that took a lot out of him.
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I'm all over Politologue for the same reason as you Double Handful – his jumping and really think he’s going to be top drawer

Unfortunately he’s already my biggest ante post bet (after Barters Hill), but am clinging onto the hope he gets a chance to show his ability. Hales loves festival runners and can’t remember any of his that have ducked it & he normally gets what he wants (One Man in the Gold Cup)

think he’s pencilled in for Haydock next week so we’ll find out more then
 
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