Oh for crying out loud, this is getting exasperating. :xmasrudolf:
I've frankly given up the number of times I've had to explain the concept of staying a race distance proper is dependent on how a true a racing pace is set for the race concerned, before you can hope to draw any meaningful conclusion from it!!! If a horse isn't being asked the question, and hasn't been asked to dig into its reserves, and 'show us what its made of', how on earth can you confidently suggest it stays the trip?
All horses stay 3 miles, if they're given enough time to complete the distance. To stay it properly at racing pace requires a true pace to be set though, and not a jog.
The race in question was not run on punishing ground, though in fairness the word used was "softish", which is a bit ambiguous. The official going at Chepstow was Good to Soft, the Time based going was also Good to Soft, my own figure was -1.28 (slow side of Good) although I believe the hurdles course was slightly slower probably -2.92 which would also be Good to Soft. no dispute there then, but lets not pretend this was some kind of gruelling swamp battle.
The next thing to consider is how true a pace the race was? Once again (and typically for the division) it was slow. MWDS's RPR was 159 for his performance, his TS was 114, that's a full 45Ibs slower in terms of race speed than his handicap rating. It was yet another example of a slow staying hurdles race, i.e. wasn't run at a true pace, which makes the idea of seeing the trip out at a true grade 1 pace, irrelevant. If his TS was within 7Ibs of his RPR then I'd conceed the pace was true, and we'd have the basis to try and make some assessment on. As it happens, we don't.
A class par analysis for the race reveals that it was the slowest on the card. MWDS earned a rating off me of 85.80 if assessed on the more generous hurdles track variance. I've noted elsewhere that the typical grade 1 stayers hurdle is run about 13% below the class par equilibrium figure of 100. In this case he's 14.2% below this figure, which is pretty well within the usual territory, so again I can't say I'm surprised, nor do i believe you've unearthed some decisive 'magic bullet'.
Check out the differentials in BJK sometime if you want to see a serious example of a non stayer camoflauging his weaknesses with a series of slow TS figures totally out of kilter with his RPR's.
Anyway lets bring it back to MWDS for the benefit of Clive and Luke:
The first figure quoted is his TS, the second figure his RPR, the third figure is the number of pounds slower the race was run than his form suggested he was capable of. All races, apart from the last are at 24F plus over hurdles
TS RPR
102 - 148 = -46
114 - 159 = -45 (Chepstow)
145 - 166 = -21 (World Hurdle)
160 - 166 = -6 (Aintree; he lost)
57 - 150 = -93
141 - 141 = zero (Betfair Chase)
On the two occsions he was involved in a truly run race over 24F+ he lost. Unfortunately, by virtue of pulling up he won't have a TS for Kempton, but I think you can safely take an indication off kauto Star, that it was truly run again, which would give him a projected figure of 1 placed and 2 unplaced efforts over 24F+ in a truly run races.
Now let's see what happens to him at 16 - 17F by contrast;
TS RPR
107 - 109 = -2 (he won)
122 - 127 = -5 (he won)
106 - 136 = -30 (5th)
19 - 148 = -129 (he won)
82 - 103 = -21 (15th - Supreme, the race will of course have been quicker)
142 - 145 = -3 (Nov Chase Lingfield he won)
146 - 151 = -5 (Henry VIII he lost to Fair along coming second)
166 - 165 = +1 (The Arkle)
The first thing to note, is how much truer races run at this distance are 5 of the 8 feature RPR's and TS's with 5Ibs of each other (which of course is central to the whole hypothesis that a lot of grade 1 staying hurdlers are grade 1 in name only) given their tendancy to generate very slow races.
To some extent his Supreme performance might be discounted as he was so far back in the field, you'd need to take a figure off the winner in order to establish how true a pace the race was run at. The same would be true when he finished 5th in that hurdles race too
The final thing I'd ask you to re-consider is that list I put up regarding where the top 3 finishers in both divisions tend to come from. Its much easier to source Champion hurdlers geneology than it is Stayers, as the latter have historically been more prone to swerving the previous seasons festivals and emerged instead through a series of handicaps and staying hurdles (in fairness the Brit Ins wasn't in place for them for the best part of the sample period - not that, that race has yielded anything yet).
Despite being a numerically smaller sample those running into a place in the Champion hurdle can source their grade 1 credentials back to their novice days with much greater clarity then those doing the same in stayers division.
The following horses ran in the first 2 in a Championship race at Cheltenham of the previous seasons festival;
Brave Inca - WON grade 1 Supreme
Hardy Eustace - WON grade 1 SAH
Rooster Booster - WON grade 3 County Hurdle
Rhinestone Cowboy - WON Bumper
Westender - 2nd grade 1 Supreme
Hors Loi La - WON grade 1 Supreme
Bilboa - WON grade 2 (but given that it was F&M year, I'm prepared to accord it honourary Supreme Novices grade 1 status for the year concerned)
Istabraq - WON grade 1 SAH
French Holly - WON grade 1 SAH
All of these horses had serious claims to be considered true grade 1 animals?
The stayers by contrast;
Inglis Drever - 2nd grade 1 SAH
Baracouda - is difficult to get a handle on, but the strong balance of probabilities points to genuine class even if he emerged in France at staying distances without taking our festivals in until such time as he was ready to sweep them up
Princeful - 2nd in a grade 1 Supreme
Paddys Return - WON a Triumph Hurdle
Now during the season previous alot of the horses graduating to the stayers were useful, but essentially also rans in Grade 1 company, and most definately when compared against the horses that had largely beaten them as novices. They tended to fall in two groups;
1) Those who ran between 3rd and 8th at a festival (usually Aintree)
2) Those who missed out the festivals and took a handicappers route into staying hurdles
yet within 12 - 24 months, these Grade 1 'contenders' - but ultimate near misses, have suddenly been re-assigned Grade 1 status by the stroke of an administrators pen?
Hurdles courses normally ride slower Clive by virtue of bigger fields churning the ground up (assuming it's got some cut in it). It's not a problem for the World Hurdle though, (quite the opposite). The race is the first Hurdles race run on the New course on the Thursday, and as such the staying hurdlers get first use of the fresh ground, (and still generate slow times)
