For heaven's sake Warbler, it's perfectly possible to follow the gist of an argument based on detailed stats without bothering with more than the gist, much tho it's appreciated that you take the trouble to give chapter and verse.
And it's perfectly possible, and surely permissible, when following the gist of an argument to pick up on the odd tangential remark, or even mistaken conclusion, regarding one particular horse/trainer, where they seem to be *on all of the available evidence* mistaken.
As I see it, your research into MWDS's chances of staying in a 3m chase have led you to a general hypothesis regarding staying hurdlers which is both fascinating and probably correct. It's not necessary to follow every stat to see that.
Extrapolating from your general thesis, that the trainer has got his regime for MWDS all wrong, when several other horses in the yard are running well below par as well, seems to me a non-sequitor - particularly in this instance. Saying so does not invalidate your *general* argument.
People are quite free to read whatever they like on here in whichever manner best suits their own needs and purposes; and to respond accordingly. I don't consider anything I've said in this thread to be facile or silly, nor does anything criticise your *general* conclusion.
I've just pointed out that you can't really build an argument on the case of one horse, several of whose stablemates are also running well below par, in the process blaming it all on trainer error. In widening out the argument to study a lot more horses and races you more or less accepted that yourself. Your argument in the specific case of MWDS demonstrates the usual weaknesses of relying primarily on stats, rather than starting with the horses. It's pretty obvious to those of us who know HORSES that there is something wrong with some of AK's string right now. But you've refused to address what we've had to say except to dismiss our observations as wishful thinking.
I'll leave it there as I think this thread is becoming - no, better not go there 
