White Christmas?

Seconded, Relks..

Though I would have though that the odds on it being a White Xmas better for you, Mo, than us soft southerners.........
 
It looks like they're saying 60% for just about anywhere. That must make it much more likely than usual since the bookies normally go at least 6/1 at this point of the year.
 
Long distance weather forecasts do suggest a cold December.

However, I reckon that they are likely to get more hits on their website if they have a high percentage chance of snow, which would make it easier to sell advertising space on their website.
 
Oh, that's bad news for the 2 y.o.s again - enough of them suffered from hard ground in 2003. I wonder if long-distance forecasting will sink into the noggins of various Clerks of the Course, and they'll remember not to cut too close before racing?
 
I don't know who Metcheck are but they've got bugger all to do with the Meteorological Office. Conspiracy theorists might suggest that the site is funded by bookmakers! (Joke, by the way)

The Met Office will tell you that it is way too soon to forecast what the weather will be like on Christmas day and statistically the chances of a white Christmas in London should make it a 12/1 shot, so allow for the probability of colder than average December weather and go 9/1. Which makes the bookmakers' prices of 4/1 and 9/2 as unsurprising as they are stupid. But nowhere near as stupid as those who take them.
 
Through work, I am pretty involved with natural gas and oil future markets, which are fairly sensitive to long-range weather forecasts.

Weather patterns actually suggest an average to slightly mild December.

I reckon that the chances of a London white Christmas are around the 12/1 that Brian mentions in his post.
 
Metcheck is a small independent weather forecasting operation. I check them regularly, along with the BBC site, and I find them more forthcoming about longer-term forecasting. Of course they can't be accurate all the time but they're not far off it. They forecast the snow we had a couple of weeks ago a good week before it arrived and a few days before the BBC forecast it. For short term forecasting, I find them more accurate than the Beeb.
 
Originally posted by Maurice@Dec 5 2005, 08:00 PM
Metcheck is a small independent weather forecasting operation. I check them regularly, along with the BBC site, and I find them more forthcoming about longer-term forecasting. Of course they can't be accurate all the time but they're not far off it. They forecast the snow we had a couple of weeks ago a good week before it arrived and a few days before the BBC forecast it. For short term forecasting, I find them more accurate than the Beeb.
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A point of semantics, I suppose, but that's what I do - the BBC does not forecast weather. The meteorological office forecasts weather and the BBC uses their forecasts (and their employees) in broadcasts.

I would dispute the accuracy of any forecast beyond fourteen days as I too used to purchase forecasts for business reasons and frankly the expense was not worth it - we may as well have used seaweed or old wives' tales. We had discussions at the time with meteorologists and they were all quite ready to admit that anything beyond about four weeks was a gamble.

I wonder how accurate Metcheck really is if they are making snow on Christmas day even money!
 
I was aware of the BBC/Met Office relationship as I wrote it but presumed the Beeb is pretty much the mouthpiece for the MO.

As for Metcheck & White Christmas, they got it right last year (at least in this area)when the MO was being non-committal at the start of December.
 
I would once again argue that they only have high percentage chance of a White Christmas so that they get lots of hits on their site allowing them to sell advertising space for more money.

This is the metoffice view of the end of December:

A significant change is indicated for the final two weeks of the year. Dominant winds could well be from the west or southwest indicating very unsettled conditions. Periods of rain or showers crossing the country but also some brighter spells. Temperatures by day average or a little above but mostly above average at night, minimising the risk of widespread frosts.
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It seems they can't make their own mind up. readthis a minute ago on their website:

Forecast updated 28 Nov 2005
The Met Office continues to predict a two in three chance of a colder-than-average winter for much of Europe. If this holds true, parts of the UK — especially southern regions — are expected to have temperatures below normal.

There is also an indication for a drier-than-average winter over much of the UK.

The last eight winters have been relatively mild and perhaps have given the impression that these are 'normal'. The balance of probability is for a winter colder than those experienced since 1995/6.

The forecast is based on our prediction that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be negative this winter.

Typically, when there is a negative NAO, we can expect much of the European region to experience a colder-than-average winter. Using a traffic-light analogy we consider that people should remain on amber alert for the prospect of a colder-than-average winter.

There will be regional variations across the UK this coming winter. For example, historically, when southern and central England experience a harsh winter, it is quite common for parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland to be less cold.
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I don't remember seeing any ads at Metcheck, Bar.
 
There is a big Vodafone banner on the side of the santa sleigh site that you linked to.

And I am sure that they will be able to sell that space for more next year if people keep on checking it every day to see the chances of a white Christmas.
 
Originally posted by Bar the Bull@Dec 6 2005, 10:37 AM
And I am sure that they will be able to sell that space for more next year if people keep on checking it every day to see the chances of a white Christmas.
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Thouigh they'll lose the ones who thought that anything over even money was a good price...
 
According to today's Richard & Judy, the UK is heading for an Ice Age starting possibly as soon as 10 years time....
 
Originally posted by Shadow Leader@Dec 6 2005, 08:33 PM
According to today's Richard & Judy, the UK is heading for an Ice Age starting possibly as soon as 10 years time....
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Must be true then!!! :lol:
 
There is no snow - another even money loser... :lol:


xmas.gif
 
Only if you backed it.

Actually, we look like having a picture postcard Christmas. There's a very heavy frost here tonight and we look set to have a very white setting in the morning, but it won't be snow.
 
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