Afternoon all 
I'm unable to attend Lingfield today as Mrs Stodge has tasks for me but I will be there for the NH meeting on Monday (weather permitting).
Anyway, today is the big event of the AW season, the Group 3 Winter Derby and after three days of racing in Gloucestershire, I'm sure racing fans are looing forward to this
There is a maximum field of fourteen but I think you can discard quite a few who are either not up to the class or won't be effective over the trip. I'll do a quick canter down the card:
ALFRESCO: held by Jack Sullivan over a mile three weeks ago and disappointing to be honest at Wolverhampton last Saturday - not for me.
CHARLIE TOKYO - Best form on tuef on soft ground and did nothing at Wolverhampton last week. Passed over.
DREAM LODGE - Involved in a close finish with Samarinda early in Feb but held by DUBAI'S TOUCH in the Trial and no obvious reason why the placings shouldn't be confirmed on 3 lbs worse terms.
DUBAI'S TOUCH - Ran very well in the Trial just losing out to Dansant under a Spencer ride which was a heady mix of perspiration and luck. Time was reasonable and should be very close.
EVIDENT PRIDE - second in mid-January Class 2 handicap which hasn't worked out at all. Not good enough.
GRAND PASSION - IF back to his best, will go very close and beat Gentlemen's Deal in the Churchill last November. Poor in the Trial and has to come back from that. Suited by a strong pace which he is more likely to get today.
GREAT HAWK - rare Stoute runner on this surface. Well behind GRAND PASSION in September Stakes at Kempton and something to prove.
HATTAN - from a syable which has produced some big-price winners in the warmer races this winter and no surprise to see him go well if a strong gallop as probably needs a bit further. However, well held in the 2007 Winter Derby, though that was a more tactical affair.
ORCHARD SUPREME - Consistent handicapper but no form at this trip so passed over.
PHILATELIST - Beat Baylini but now 4 lbs worse off for two and a half lengths. Has won both visits to the course and respected but possibly not good enough.
RED MOLONEY - Interesting Irish newcomer. Won a Listed event at Dundalk in November. Possibly better at further and will need strong pace tonight.
SILVER PIVOTAL - Ready winner of warm Class 2 handicap in late January off top weight. Has the advantage of Spencer but draw terrible so will need plenty of good fortune. I really fancied this one until I saw the draw.
ZAHAM - Solid handicap form on turf (where rated nearly 2 stone higher than on grass). Another with a bad draw and possibly better over further but sure to be a contender.
Conclusion: it's a bit boring but if DUBAI'S TOUCH gets a good position from the one draw, he looks the one for me. SILVER PIVOTAL and ZAHAM have poor draws to contend with. I rate RED MOLONEY and it would be foolish to ignore GRAND PASSION on the basis.
My betting plan will be to back DUBAI'S TOUCH to win with an e/w saver on GRAND PASSION.
On the rest of the card, I like MATSUSONAKE in the Listed sprint.
I'm unable to attend Lingfield today as Mrs Stodge has tasks for me but I will be there for the NH meeting on Monday (weather permitting).
Anyway, today is the big event of the AW season, the Group 3 Winter Derby and after three days of racing in Gloucestershire, I'm sure racing fans are looing forward to this
There is a maximum field of fourteen but I think you can discard quite a few who are either not up to the class or won't be effective over the trip. I'll do a quick canter down the card:
ALFRESCO: held by Jack Sullivan over a mile three weeks ago and disappointing to be honest at Wolverhampton last Saturday - not for me.
CHARLIE TOKYO - Best form on tuef on soft ground and did nothing at Wolverhampton last week. Passed over.
DREAM LODGE - Involved in a close finish with Samarinda early in Feb but held by DUBAI'S TOUCH in the Trial and no obvious reason why the placings shouldn't be confirmed on 3 lbs worse terms.
DUBAI'S TOUCH - Ran very well in the Trial just losing out to Dansant under a Spencer ride which was a heady mix of perspiration and luck. Time was reasonable and should be very close.
EVIDENT PRIDE - second in mid-January Class 2 handicap which hasn't worked out at all. Not good enough.
GRAND PASSION - IF back to his best, will go very close and beat Gentlemen's Deal in the Churchill last November. Poor in the Trial and has to come back from that. Suited by a strong pace which he is more likely to get today.
GREAT HAWK - rare Stoute runner on this surface. Well behind GRAND PASSION in September Stakes at Kempton and something to prove.
HATTAN - from a syable which has produced some big-price winners in the warmer races this winter and no surprise to see him go well if a strong gallop as probably needs a bit further. However, well held in the 2007 Winter Derby, though that was a more tactical affair.
ORCHARD SUPREME - Consistent handicapper but no form at this trip so passed over.
PHILATELIST - Beat Baylini but now 4 lbs worse off for two and a half lengths. Has won both visits to the course and respected but possibly not good enough.
RED MOLONEY - Interesting Irish newcomer. Won a Listed event at Dundalk in November. Possibly better at further and will need strong pace tonight.
SILVER PIVOTAL - Ready winner of warm Class 2 handicap in late January off top weight. Has the advantage of Spencer but draw terrible so will need plenty of good fortune. I really fancied this one until I saw the draw.
ZAHAM - Solid handicap form on turf (where rated nearly 2 stone higher than on grass). Another with a bad draw and possibly better over further but sure to be a contender.
Conclusion: it's a bit boring but if DUBAI'S TOUCH gets a good position from the one draw, he looks the one for me. SILVER PIVOTAL and ZAHAM have poor draws to contend with. I rate RED MOLONEY and it would be foolish to ignore GRAND PASSION on the basis.
My betting plan will be to back DUBAI'S TOUCH to win with an e/w saver on GRAND PASSION.
On the rest of the card, I like MATSUSONAKE in the Listed sprint.
