Woe is Warbler - Recession 2008

W

Warbler

At the Start
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
8,493
Welcome to Warblers wailing wall, a kind of diary documenting a persobnal view of the current recession and the impending axe, as I look like being at the front of the queue in the casualty department. It's not intended to be a self-pitying indulgence in melancoly, but some periodic observations laced with the odd angry outburst and moderately amusing story. Today's focus for my ire was radio 5's 'financial expert' (would we be in this mess in the first place if it wasn't for financial experts?). Anyway, what we need to do apparently is change our lifestyles a bit, and he suggested for instance that we "stay at home, cook our own food, and.... (wait for it).... "eat it". For Gods sake what planet do these people come from. I've been just about surviving on a break even since 2002 and long ago forewent the luxury of eating out.

Suffice to say ye Warbler has been on a time expiry contract with a promise that very soon a permament post would be released and he'd be slotted into it. The problem however, is that the individual who made this promise was given notice of redundancy yesterday and can no longer affect the measure thus. Indeed, quite a few people (about 40) appear to be in the same boat, and with corporate policy dictaing that full time permament staff take precedence over temporary staff, ye olde Warbler is toast.

On the other side of the equation we have a so called 'restructure' being conducted behind our backs (an organisational change policy has never been adopted so the scope for skullduggery and cloak and dagger deals with hidden agendas is high). Reading between the lines it has become apparent that something of a scorched earth policy has been implemented against us over the past few months, and we've been feeding off scraps thrown down from the high table, and just been cast incoherent pieces of work with little more than a 3 month shelf life. I'd been getting worried by this development, as I know what it's symptomatic of. It was increasingly apparent to me that we would be the casualty in this budget saving exercise based purely on the fact that the person conducting it had no interest, and little knowledge of the work area. That in itself isn't a disaster, but when they're particularly passionate about another area (having worked in it for such a long time now) it was obvious how the axe would fall.

There is a third (political) angle to this car crush which I can't get to the bottom of even if all the tacit signs are there that it's operating. Our own work area was most closely associated with a political party that is no longer in control (indeed the person who encouraged me to hang on in there with the view to the permament position) was also associated thus. It would be unfair in truth as this isn't really the case, but then perception is more important than reality, and I must have been pretty unlucky in finding myself working for an organisation that returned a labour vote in Mays election:eek: (talk about backing the wrong horse:D how unlucky is that?). The laws of averages must have been 1/200 in my favour, but I still found the one. As a child I was never much good at 'pinning the tail on the donkey', but I'm clearly lethal at finding the one city in the country that voted the other way. It half reminds me of a scene from the Alamo (one of the most historically inaccurate films Hollywood ever made. Anyway, John Wayne is standing on the ramparts as the various Mexican regiments advance on him from all four sides, some how the penny drops with you, that you aren't escaping this one!!! It's just a question of which of them breaches the defences first and finishes you off.

So the noose tightens, and I did indeed manage to blow a job interview yesterday (as is my way) it takes me about 5 or 6 before I remember how to do them again. At least I'd read the writing on the wall and had started trying to pro-actively cheat the hangman.

This morning was quite depressing, as frustration over the last 3 years has been the watch word at work. It's the first time I've worked somewhere where I really felt I genuinely had the ammunition to do a proper job and make a big difference. It's just that there's no appetite or ambition in the organisation to do anything adventurous. The corporate plan has just been issued for instance and I wept when I read it such is the paucity of the strategic level of thinking from well paid individuals responsible for its production, and this only adds to my sense of frustration. I get the chance to quiz the Cheif Executive on it shortly (or so I'm told, but i very much doubt it as I'm sure he won't be inviting awkward questions that pretty well blast holes across his four of six core priorities). Anyway enough of zee rant

I duly sat down this morning and tried to contemplate a career (aged 41 now - birthday last Friday). It's not a nice feeling when you suddenly discover that you haven't got that much by way of transferable skills and quickly end up concluding that you're 'bloody useless really':). Even though I'd happily entertain a change of direction, I can't imagine for the life of me what it is likely to be, and so almost by default I'm pretty well marooned in the same narrow field.

I can blag it out until November so might be able to effect an escape yet, but there's that grim realisation when you finally accept that the party's over, that the cavalry ain't coming, and that the future looks grim. Your mind naturally turns to where you're going to live etc. I have no personal debt, but no significant savings either. The economy is pretty well down the toilet and the prospects look bleak all round. In a strange way I'm not massively depressed about things yet, and in my experience it's only when you emerge the other side of such personal ordeals of uncertainty that the gravity of it all hits.

We shall see......

I'll endeavour to keep things up to date and anyone else who has the misfortune to suffer during the next year or so, by all means feel free to join the wailing wall.

nb

If anyone is aware where I work, or can similarly work it out, please don't post the name of the employer
 
Warbler - I know nothing at all about things like this - all I do know is that I am very very lucky to be in a job that will always be there.

Really hope you can get something sorted out quickly - i doubt I can help,but if theres anything I can do - shout.

Big Hug xx
 
Sorry to hear that, Warbler. Hope things get better for you and you never know how things might turn out - in a few years you might think it was a good thing.
 
Advice?

1. Dont ask the CEO awkward questions in such a perilous environment. It could hasten your end and there is no advantage to you other than a slight feeling of goodness for 30 seconds. Awkward questions are the crack cocaine for temps.

2. Probably not a great idea to post large postings from work in the current perilous situation.

3. Make a list of your five best competencies. Work out examples of how you have applied them and how they postively altered your org. Be concise. Learn them by rote.

4. Go to interviews. Repeat 3 above.

Hope it works out.
 
Great advice from AC.
Generally however hold on to your self esteem.Know your abilities and consider what you can do rather than the opposite. When you convince yourself it's so much easier to convince others. Don't take knockbacks personally.
 
Emigrate to the u s of a :)

Land of opportunity




Much of the above is good advice though..
 
I work in finance and I can confirm from quite a good position that a lot of people are on the edge of oblivion. Loans, cards, overdrafts, lower wages, remortgage rates/fees , food,utility increases.
But hey ho the media are playing it down
 
But hey ho the media are playing it down
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Seriously!? I've heard the phrase "credit crunch" so many times I think they're advertising a new cereal.

Now there's an idea...
 
I live in Ireland, and can relate to what Warbler is saying. I have also recently lost my job. I have been looking for something similar for two months now, but to no avail. I recently had an interview with a major bank, but again, i got the no thank you. Found out there were 45 people in for the same position as me. Should i be worrying as much as i am? Or should i take the "something will turn up attitude"?

Im 24, have a degree in Business, have completed half of the professional accounting exams and have 18 months experience working in an accounting practice. Im by no means well off financially, but i am in the enviable position of not owing a single Euro to anyone. So i know i could be worse off, but it does feel all doom and gloom at the minute...:(
 
It probably seems appropriate that the monthly unemployment figure is out today and therefore worth commiting to the record. 1.62M up 12,000. On the positive side, this is still historically low meaning that I might sneak into a window between now and christmas yet, before things really bite. As we noted earlier this indicator tends to lag the others, and I suspect we are probably looking at about 18 months of successive rises, topping out at about 3M. I do have one under-lying fear though that this recession might just bite deeper than anything we've seen post-war as it is much more global in nature where as previous ones have had more of an element of purely indigenous design to them (although this one probably embodies both components). We've faced global recessions before of course, and the old adage that when 'America sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold' still holds true. The world economies however, have become ever more increasingly entwinned with each other since the last global recession, and I'm not sure we've ever seen a recession in the information technology age yet? As such it is just possible that we might be entering unchartered water and if this is the case then the capacity to generate a hitherto unseen figure might exist.

Now I realise that governments are adept at massaging the unemployment figure, Maggie Thatcher made an art form of it and introduced something like 25 changes to the way she calculated it. We'll see, but there appear to be two distinct drivers to this recession and how its impacting the UK, both of which have proven capable to triggering a recession in their own rights previous. The global component probably owes more to the mid 70's by way of comparison with the oil shocks that went round the world, and it probably borrows elements from the American financial problems of the early 80's too. The second major driver as I see it is much more home grown and that involves the correction in the property market where by we'd previously allowed a speculative bubble to build up around the value of a house and people borrowed and spent accordingly, until that bubble burst. In this respect it probably owes more to the so-called 'Lawson boom' of the late 80's, that dear old John Major found himself floundering with in the early 90's. With two sets of pressures impacting simultaneously therefore, this one really could dig deep.

In an ironic way, I actually find myself on strike today for a pay award I'm unlikely to ever see the benefits of at this rate:p Oh the irony of it all. Although Gordon Brown has been using the public sector pay award as an instrument to help control inflation for years now (in real terms we've had 10 years of successive pay cuts) but I was never under any illusion like so many of my colleagues that new labour wouldn't do anything other than shaft us (the labour party has a rich history of shafting its perceived natural support). It was about 2002 that started to notice that I was losing money each month and got into trouble with it. In 2004 I took voluntary redundancy and a pay off purely to alleviate the situation, which is no real way to try and run a career. I've largely been feeding of time expiry contracts ever since.

Just a quickie AC, fear not about posting from work, (well fear less I should say). I can frequently work from home in this job, and where as it saves my employer office space, heating, lighting and electricity bills, as well as contributing to the environment, it also suits me too. Therefore the posts are made from my own PC.

The rant against the Chief Exec however would be more interesting, especially if he were prepared to listen (which I doubt) for if he did then he'd understand (and hopefully acknowledge) that his senior strategic team of well paid supposed experts are guilty of a fundamental (and imo basic) error of judgement. Oh what the hell...... I'll take you through it, although I can't quite quote it verbatim

We have to adopt 6 corporate priorities, the first of which is something like "support and promote the city as a centre of learning excellence, and develop and build on the retail and cultural industries employment opportunities".

Now the first component really is tantamount to picking the lowest hanging fruit on the tree!!! For those of you who are aware of the city in question, you'll know that the seat of learning pretty well looks after itself and has done for centuries. Talk about hijacking someone elses outputs and presenting them as your own achievement!!! Having said that, if i were in his position, I'd probably do the same. The second component about the retail and leisure employment opportunities is where they are fatally flawed in their total misread of the data and ill-thought out interpretation of it. What they've basically done is look at the employment structure of the city's economy and spotted an area that's experienced recent growth and said 'oh look that's growing, we must be good at that'. Wrong. Allow me to put this way. If 20% of your workforce were unemployed, you wouldn't turn round and say 'oh look we're good at unemployment, lets do some more of it' because they've grown accustomed to associate unemployment as a bad thing.

What they should have done therefore is note the nature of the employment and then work out the implications of it, and then build in some remedial interventions. What we are really talking about here, is low-paid, low-skilled, employment, often involving poor terms and conditions, in sectors which are chronically vulnerable to the whims of consumer expenditure. Why would you seek to develop this? The correct response should have been to identify new higher value added employment opportunities based on distinct sector clusters of 'sunrise' R&D activity, especially as they have a world renowned university base to piggy back off. Successful innovation in some of these R&D activities would inevitably lead into high value added manufacture as well. To my mind we have an open goal here, but the great and good have totally failed to ask the right question and thus diagnose the true nature of the situation. It's made all the more frustrating since the city genuinely has a serious competitive edge in this field (almost unique to Europe) and where as other places who are under greater economic pressure would run with the idea, they don't possess the USP that this one does. In essence this probably goes to the heart of the issue, as the city is prosperous and complacant with it. Therefore the incentive to innovate and think ambitiously doesn't exist as people can get along very nicely thankyou grinding the machinary over as slowly, and as safely as they can get away with.

I'll spare you the diagnosis of the third and fourth points, suffice to say the third is a contradiction of the first, and the fourth is a knee jerk topical reaction to what was in the news when the exercise was undertaken. If the exercise had been undertaken a year earlier, it wouldn't even have appeared on the list, and in any event, it is someone elses responsibility (the Environment Agency in this case)
 
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Warbler said:
It probably seems appropriate that the monthly unemployment figure is out today and therefore worth commiting to the record. 1.62M up 12,000. On the positive side, this is still historically low meaning that I might sneak into a window between now and christmas yet, before things really bite. As we noted earlier this indicator tends to lag the others, and I suspect we are probably looking at about 18 months of successive rises, topping out at about 3M.
Click to expand...

Now that is an extremely gloomy forecast. That would require job losses of nearly 80k a month, which simply isn't going to happen.

Del boy, my sympathies are with you. I work for a major bank, and we have a recruitment freeze on here for the last six months. Only when critical members of staff leave do we hire, and then it is usually internally.
 
Bar the Bull said:
Now that is an extremely gloomy forecast. That would require job losses of nearly 80k a month, which simply isn't going to happen.

Del boy, my sympathies are with you. I work for a major bank, and we have a recruitment freeze on here for the last six months. Only when critical members of staff leave do we hire, and then it is usually internally.
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I was at a major disadvantage in that i had no previous banking experience, and once i heard the number of people in for the position i knew there had to be someone in there with the relevant experioence. I imagine that the position may have even been filled internally as you have said. Il probably be moving back to Dublin now, i had hoped to remain around home, but its not looking good. We could be neighbours!!
 
I left a large multi-national a couple of years ago.My section was moving abroad. I was offered a wedge or I could interview for another roll in which I had a good chance of being successful wink: wink: I took the wedge, the arm and the shoulder it was attached to clean out of the socket. They didn't see that coming. Never going back 9-5 again.Up to my eye balls in debt but at least I'm doing it for myself and the family. Might n't be the worst thing that ever happened to you Warbler ! Good Luck
 
We've seen similar rises before, but then I'm given to apocalyptic scenarios:)

I can't necessarily see where the new jobs are coming from at the moment, and much of the recent growth has been in lower paid service sector activity which has proven chronically vulnerable in the early 90's to recessionary pressures particularly in retail and lesiure where a low skills base means that employers don't necessarily need to consider retaining key staff as they can lay them off very quickly, and similarly recruit them at the same speed should it become necessary later.

The other growth area has been in the public sector and with government spending committed elsewhere whether it be fighting illegal wars, bailing out banks or subsidising 10p tax bands, the pot is drying up. Tax increases look inevitable in November and this will further crush the consumer.

It was a feature of the 90's recession that many of the 'sunrise' industries that under wrote the economic growth of the mid 80's proved to be very vulnerable in recession too, where as some of the more established 'traditional' sectors were better equipped to ride out the storm. A repeat of this trend would also be damaging. I still think 3M is possible, although there is a thing called 'concealed unemployment' of course which can mask the headline figure. My time frames could be wrong though, as I normally forecast things to happen about twice as quickly as they do. Mind you that would, involve 3 years of unemployment growth:(

Well a rejection letter has duly hissed its way through the letterbox this morning, but I knew that was on its way, and in truth I'm not terribly concerned about having that decision taken away from me, as I was far from comfortable at the prospects of working for the unnamed organisation, as it presented something of a frying to fire situation and one form which I might have found it even harder to move on from given the comparatively lowly status of the organisation in the pecking order.

So three more to have stab at whilst I'm on strike, though once again everything seems to be time expiry contracts
 
Ref: Ireland, Del.

The thing to remember is that the construction sector is down, but the rest of the normal economy is expected to grow at 4% this year. The Banks are a temporary basket case as we know. I recommend, Del, that you focus your search on organisations that are export led and in the ICT or Biotech/Pharma businesses.

I think that becoming dispirited because you can't find a job in a bank at the moment is naive.
 
an capall said:
Ref: Ireland, Del.

The thing to remember is that the construction sector is down, but the rest of the normal economy is expected to grow at 4% this year. The Banks are a temporary basket case as we know. I recommend, Del, that you focus your search on organisations that are export led and in the ICT or Biotech/Pharma businesses.

I think that becoming dispirited because you can't find a job in a bank at the moment is naive.
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Not being naive about the whole thing, more of a case of i am more disillusioned with not being able to get a job close to home. I know well there is plenty of work in the citys, it will just mean travelling.

Thanks all the same for the advice on the other, il look into it.
 
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HBOS just announced that they're shedding 650 jobs, I suspect we might very well see one of these types of announcements every other day now for the next year. Do you remember that thing they used to do at the end of the news in the 1980's, when they kept that scoreboard running?

"Camel Laird are shedding 5000 jobs in Merseyside, ICI are losing 20,000 in Teeside, British Leyland are closing their Bathgate plant in Scotland with the loss of 12,000 jobs, and Mrs Miggins from Maidenhead has employed Olga as an au pair"
 
How can Mrs Miggins afford an au pair on the proceeds she makes from her pie shop? It's not usually the busiest of places, often only frequented by Edmund and pals!
 
Mrs Miggins owns an empire of pie shops and they always looked busy enough to me.

I wonder if there is a Mrs Miggins pie shop anywhere in the UK? There must be. I'm pretty certain someone decided to actually write 'fly fishing' by JR Hartley
 
Out of sheer boredom (I decided to start filling the job applications out tomorrow en masse) I did play about with Google and understand there to be a Mrs Miggins pie shop in Hexham!!! I think I've traced another one to London too, how many others does she own?
 
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