York Day 1

Hamm

Hamm

At the Start
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Jan 24, 2008
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Any fancies?

I think Starspangledbanner could be an each way bet to nothing, as if he is indeed as promising as he has looked, it's hard to see him out of the first 3.

Cabaret looks slightly the bet in the Musidora, but it doesn't look the strongest renewal.

Haven't delved into the handicaps as yet.
 
Of the Ballydoyle runners I would prefer Cabaret to Starspangledbanner today. Everything I am reading about SSB suggests he needs every inch of 6 furlongs - might York's track be on the sharp side for him?

Everything about Cabaret's pedigree and style of racing suggests this trip and further should be ideal for her. The obvious concern is if she is ready enough for this (Alexandrova got beat in this before going on to win the Oaks) first time out but I see her as a serious Oaks player.
 
It has to be a huge ask for a three and a half year old to give weight to 4,5 and 6 year olds this early in the season.
 
Maybe you're both right.

What happened Cabaret in France though? that would be my only worry.
 
Get the videos out on you tube

Oakleigh Plate
Lightning Stakes

I think a well-run 6f tracking Inxile will suit him down to the ground.

The tactics in the Musidora will be interesting. You would hope Murtagh will make plenty of use of Cabaret like they did last year, but they can only do that if she's 100% fit. This race is there to be won if they can make it a test of stamina because Aviate looks like this trip could stretch. Could be one for playing in-running when Aviate looms up going the better.

Handicaps looks pretty hard. I wouldn't be in any hurry to take on Summerinthecity but some of the other races look more open. Camps Bay is intriguing in the 3.45. Down in the weights and left the dreadful Amanda Perrett at the end of last year. 2 runs this year over inadequate 10f and now back up in trip with potentially a stone in hand. At double figures I can't leave him unbacked.

I was inclined to give Official Style the benefit of the doubt and though he needed the run at Newmarket, but equally 10f might be further than ideal for him and at 5/2 I don't mind looking elsewhere, Contract Caterer may even confirm form with this slighter longer trip sure to be in his favour but I also fancy Think Its All Over. Backed at Haydock as if well ahead of his mark, he wasn't quick enough to confirm it at a mile on fast ground. The step up in trip and galloping track look sure to suit and think he has to have a real chance.

Cracking day in prospect and then we get the first 3 from the Oaks tomorrow.
 
Respect SSB's sprint form and obviously connection no fools but a horse that wins over a mile in a group one race (albeit Austailian) with the comment "stayed on strongly" has to be taken on today. Mullionmileanhour for me. I think the track will suit better than Newmarket.
 
My horses for the day - Few bigger prices runners:

1.40 - Changing the Guard. Despite not appearing the first string I think he has a good chance. He is handicapped up to his best but I thought he was quite progressive last year and won a handicap off 84 here in the summer (Tylicki was claiming 5 at the time though). He won first time out last year and in a race where the front two look like talking horses i'm willing to give him a go E/W. Forte Dei Marmi could be listed class but he's got to run a fast time before I believe that and Imposing has been off a very long time.

2.10 - Bond Fastrac - I'm backing this purely on the basis that he comes out really well on adjusted TS and RPR and could still be improving after only four runs. The trip would be a concern but again at the prices he's an E/W bet. The Noseda or Johnston Fillies will fill the top three with him probably.

2.40 - Cabaret - All over this. I don't think Aviate will stay the trip. Pink Symphony should improve for the step up and is interesting as is Bikini Babe who was run some good races in rating terms but Cabaret's form is the best and she should improve for ths etp up in trip.

3.10 - As i've said on the other thread I like Showcasing and Mullionmileanhour in this but in the interests of value i'd put up Mullionmileanhour.
 
Im a big fan of showcasing, but might just give him a watching brief , given its a first run of the year and the record of 3yos. The Ballydoyle horse could be anything, leaving it alone due to race fitness being a concern. The one i have had positive word on is Sayif, and may be worthy of an ew bet at 10s, with a rev f/c with Showcasing.
 
I think Sand Tiger is very interesting, he's a lightly raced sort getting in off bottom weight and with his claimer taking a few pounds off. He was workmanlike at Musselburgh and finished that in a good time, I can see him enjoying York and 16/1 seems incredibly generous. The Cumani thing seems a mental price to me and I think the Stoute horse is probably a saver bet against him.

In the Musidora, I think Gold Bubbles could surprise a few people. She's ran behind some good horses in her short career and none of this field are up to the level of Steinbeck and Lillie Langtry. The Lolly for Dolly race was very quick on the clock and she looks the sort to improve for both the step up in trip and better ground, I'm certainly no fan of Bolger but you have to respect him when he brings one over and I think this race is more open than the market suggests.

In the Duke of York, I've always like Mullionmileanhour and I see him very very hard to beat and 9/1 seems like a Christmas present. Showcasing has a lot of questions to answer, Starspangledbanner probably won't be fit enough and Main Aim tailed off towards the back end of last year but he goes well fresh so he'd be the biggest danger. Damien, Doncaster Rover and Prime Defender all look like small EWs too alongside a decent win bet on the Best horse.
 
Aviate wins despite a troubled passage - all in a heap for the places. Cabaret initally looked to be disappointed but she was running on again in the last half furlong but there did seem to be good money for her.
 
I was disappointed with Caberet. I know that the Ballydoyle horses come on for the run, but surely even allowing for that she can't really be regarded as an Oaks contender.
 
Can someone explain why Ahern put his whip down a furlong out on Rigidity - I thought he had dropped it at first - did he think he was home and hosed ?
 
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