York Friday Fancies

Tout Seul

Tout Seul

Senior Jockey
Joined
May 2, 2003
Messages
2,628
The list of horses that I follow on the all-weather is very short but I have done very well from such a limited list. One that has been very profitable for me over the last few years is Easterby's ALANTIC STORY . A Godolphin cast-off it took time to find out the horse's best distance- he's even been hurdling.

Easterby has found what was necessary to get the horse going and the horse has won 10/15 all weather races ( notably never placed) in the process moving from class 6 to class 2 and a rating of 55 to 98. This is a horse that wins when the money is down which it frequently is.

His AW wins are over 7,8 and 9 furlongs and his racing style is to be up with the pace and then launch an impressive burst. Today (4.20) he runs over 6f with a turf handicap rating of 88 ie 10lb better off. Whilst he might just be run off his feet early on I think he may well stay with them and then kick on. There has been some money for him and it might be worth a punt at around 14's.
 
Tout Seul Nov. 2006
Anyway, I began this post with the sole purpose of saying that the winning of most races on the AW is, in my view, determined by fairly small degrees of edge in factors like course, draw, fitness, jockey, etc. In the instance of Atlantic Story on Friday to my eyes the horse could have won running backwards in a blindfold (please accept a slight exaggeration) and this was not a case of degrees of edge but that the horse was hugely superior to its opponents.

The handicapper will seek to ensure that it is not given the opportunity to take the pi$$ again therefore I assume, maybe wrongly, that connections will have identified another opportunity before the window closes. I doubt whether a small preference for surface will have too much detrimental effect.
Click to expand...
 
Atlantic Story is an absolute legend on the A/W but he seems to have developed a marked preference for that surface over turf, and I wonder if he isn't just running ot day to give his owners a 'day out' at the big meeting?

I don't find Luberon's profile at all convincing for this task either, for the same reason...
I do fancy the favourite Sugar Ray, and BIRKSIDE for this. The latter is an e/w price at best 9/1, as is Furmidilagiusta who imo should also make the frame, currently best 20/1.
 
Absolutely brilliant ride from Kelly - the horse stops the second he gets his nose in front!
But he seemed to really want it today, and if he was bleeding the last two years, Osborne seems to have found a way to soprt him out. patience rewarded - an excellent trining performance!

I'm glad I'm not betting today - apart from Fat Boy and a place on Birkside, I wouldn't be doing too well LOL. One thing results show today is, that class is class, regardless of going ...
 
Alantic Story ran very well coming second, was certainly sent out to win it. I believe he has improved and can be a decent handicapper on the turf as well.
 
Perhaps the colour green brings him out in a muck sweat! Some horses do dislike certain colours LOL
Very good run from him anyway, Luberon ditto - I was forgetting how much lower his turf mark is than his a/w [Luberon's that is, tho I dare say AS's is too].
 
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