I can only take figures back as far as 1988 but Zaynar became the latest Triumph winner to beat the winner of the County Hurdle at Cheltenham. Now it's normally reckoned that the County Hurdle is one of truest run races at the festival, and being a big field handicap over 17F's with no shortage of well treated plot jobs, it normally turns up a competitive time. Until recently it was rare for a juvenile to beat the handicapper over course and distance, but of late Detroit City, Celestial Halo, and now Zaynar have done it. This might owe something to the field size being reduced a bit with the advent of the Fred Winter and therefore there aren't quite so many additional obstacles on top of the 8 flights to negotiate, but I thought dig into this a bit in an attempt to see how good Zaynar might be in a historical context. I rank them in speed order, with corresponding County time, and difference
'06 - Detroit City ............. 3.51.20 - 3.52.70 = (+1.50)
'00 - Snow Drop ...............3.52.90 - 3.51.30 = (-1.60)
'90 - Rare Holiday............. 3.54.40 - 3.51.20 = (-3.20)
'07 - Katchit.................... 3.54.60 - 3.53.90 = (-0.70)
'98 - Upgrade ...................3.57.20 - 3.54.40 = (-2.80)
'93 - Shawiya ...................3.59.30 - 3.55.90 = (-3.40)
'94 - Mysliv...................... 3.59.50 - 3.58.00 = (-1.50)
'97 - Commanche Court...... 4.00.20 - 3.58.00 = (-2.20)
'03 - Spectroscope............ 4.00.30 - 3.58.60 = (-1.70)
'96 - Paddys Return........... 4.01.30 - 4.00.80 = (-0.50)
'91 - Oh So Risky ...............4.01.70 - 4.03.30 = (+1.60)
'99 - Katarino ....................4.02.40 - 3.57.80 = (-4.60)
'05 - Penzance.................. 4.03.60 - 4.01.30 = (-2.30)
'09 - Zaynar .....................4.03.90 - 4.05.20 = (+1.30)
'92 - Duke of Monmouth ......4.04.20 - 4.03.30 = (-0.90)
'04 - Made In Japan............ 4.05.30 -4.03.70 = (-1.60)
'02 - Scolardy.....................4.07.80 - 4.05.90 = (-1.90)
'08 - Celestial Halo...............4.07.80 - 4.09.40 = (+1.60)
'88 - Kribensis......................4.10.90 - 4.10.90 = zero
'95 - Kissair.........................4.14.20 - 4.14.30 = (+0.10)
'89 - Ikdam.........................4.18.90 - 4.20.20 = (+1.30)
I'm immediately tempted to discount Ikdam on the list as I'm sure the Triumph being run 4.70 secs slower than any other on the list, and the respective County 5.90 secs slower, then these times can be accounted for by falling rain during racing. Remember the Triumph would have been first up and thus likely to get the benefit of the conditions, where as the County being the so called 'lucky last' would get the worst. I'd be pretty confident 1989 is a rogue in the sample. 1988 and 1995 might also be attributable to rain, but in this case the times look more like soft to heavy ground that's being cut up during racing as much they do a torrential downpour. Celestial Halo's win last year probably fits a similar category of drizzle, but then the new course wasn't used until the Friday. The clue to Celestial Halo's ability probably lies in the idea that he matched Scolardy, yet Scolardy was well beaten (admittedly by a useful type!!!) where as Celestial was at least able to more than match his respective County winner and record the faster time. The stand out time is clearly Detroit City's who can't have any doubts about the weather being invoked. Oh So Risky is the only other Triumph winner that can similarly escape from the allegation of having the better of the weather, with Zaynar occupying something of no mans land sandwiched between Oh So Risky's 4.01.70 and Celestial Halo's 4.07.80 on 4.03.90.
Another notable charactersitic of this dataspread is the apparent absence of extreme values between the two races. Even where we expect rain to be affecting the times, both races still put up a differential that resembles that which occurs across the sample. Katarino's eclipse by Sir Talbot at 4.20 secs in the largest, followed by Shawiya on 3.40. If you drop the bottom decile out of the equation you get a quite tight spread between -2.80 to +1.60, which over a 20 year period for a 17F race isn't too bad. A mere 4.40 secs separates them. I couldn't be bothered to work the mean out as I'm not convinced it's that relevant, but a cursory look tells me its about 2 secs in favour of the County Hurdle.
So what does this tell us about Zaynar? Nothing that much I suppose. He's probably keeping the same company as a juvenile as Detroit City, Oh So Risky and possibly Celestial halo in that they've all beaten their County Hurdlers on apparent merit without climatic assistance, and that's not bad company I suppose. Those that went close don't read too bad either. Katchit, Paddys Return, Duke of Monmouth and possibly Kribensis.
However, and there is a big however, which totally disguises the value of Zaynar's performance. The County hurdle times only accounts for what time the winner crossed the line. American Trilogy was the biggest distance in the sample period at 11L's (the next nearest was 7) and yet Zaynar has still beaten him!!! by 1.30 secs. In effect the performance of American Trilogy is disguising the full extent of Zaynar's, which would be worth an additional 2.75 secs to the runner up for an overall superiority of 4.05 secs!!!. Was the 2009 County Hurdle a slowly run affair then?
It's possible I suppose, although it's quite unusual for something to pull so far clear off a slow pace. A winning distance this long in a competitive handicap normally indicates that it's been run at a decent clip with the only the one horse (who was probably very well in) able to impose himself, although distances of 10L's can be achieved at 2 miles in jog and sprint races where an uphill finish exists if the winner possesses a particularly devastating turn of foot.
Zaynar's profile most closely resembles that of Oh So Risky. He beat his County hurdler by 1.60 secs, who in turn beat his county field by 7L's. The only other big margin winners were Sir Talbot 6L's, Thumbs Up 6L's and the 1989 winner (name escapes me but this was also 6L's, but was probably rain affected as it was Ikdam's year). Thumbs Up and Sir Talbot also happened to be the two biggest margin winners over their respective Triumph winners though (Shawiya and Katarino - mentioned earlier) and in this case it suggests that the Triumph might not necessarily have been run at a true pace, so there has to be a question mark about just why the County was so much faster in those particular years, and it is possible that a slightly inadequate juvenile pace has flattered them in comparison.
In theory therefore, Oh So Risky is the only Triumph winner who has probably matched Zaynar.
The final thing I thought I'd try and do was rather than test Triumph winners against County winners, was to test Triumph winners against the 4th placed horse in the County, as this should exclude fast County winners and give us a clearer picture as to where the winners sit relative to placed horses etc
'09 - Zaynar .....................4.03.90 - 4.08.88 = (+4.98)
'89 - Ikdam.........................4.18.90 - 4.23.82 = (+4.92)*
'91 - Oh So Risky ...............4.01.70 - 4.06.42 = (+4.72)
'06 - Detroit City ............. 3.51.20 - 3.54.45 = (+3.25)
'08 - Celestial Halo............. 4.07.80 - 4.10.40 = (+2.60)
'88 - Kribensis....................4.10.90 - 4.13.27 = (+2.37)
'96 - Paddys Return........... 4.01.30 - 4.03.05 = (+1.75)
'95 - Kissair.......................4.14.20 - 4.15.70 = (+1.50)
'02 - Scolardy....................4.07.80 - 4.07.96 = (+0.16)
'07 - Katchit.................... 3.54.60 - 3.54.36 = (-0.23)
'97 - Commanche Court...... 4.00.20 - 3.59.95 = (-0.25)
'03 - Spectroscope............ 4.00.30 - 3.59.89 = (-0.41)
'90 - Rare Holiday............. 3.54.40 - 3.53.95 = (-0.45)
'99 - Katarino ....................4.02.40 - 4.01.80 = (-0.60)
'92 - Duke of Monmouth ......4.04.20 - 4.03.53 = (-0.66)
'05 - Penzance.................. 4.03.60 - 4.02.67 = (-0.92)
'00 - Snow Drop ...............3.52.90 - 3.51.83 = (-1.07)
'04 - Made In Japan............ 4.05.30 -4.04.21 = (-1.08)
'94 - Mysliv...................... 3.59.50 - 3.58.29 = (-1.20)
'98 - Upgrade ...................3.57.20 - 3.55.90 = (-1.30)
'93 - Shawiya ...................3.59.30 - 3.57.77 = (-1.52)
* - denotes likely to be subject of falling rain in running and should be ignored
Discounting the rogue, we've got a dual Champion hurdler runner up, a Champion hurdle fav (and flop), a Champion hurdle third, and a Champion hurdle winner. It's not bad juvenile compnay to be keeping
'06 - Detroit City ............. 3.51.20 - 3.52.70 = (+1.50)
'00 - Snow Drop ...............3.52.90 - 3.51.30 = (-1.60)
'90 - Rare Holiday............. 3.54.40 - 3.51.20 = (-3.20)
'07 - Katchit.................... 3.54.60 - 3.53.90 = (-0.70)
'98 - Upgrade ...................3.57.20 - 3.54.40 = (-2.80)
'93 - Shawiya ...................3.59.30 - 3.55.90 = (-3.40)
'94 - Mysliv...................... 3.59.50 - 3.58.00 = (-1.50)
'97 - Commanche Court...... 4.00.20 - 3.58.00 = (-2.20)
'03 - Spectroscope............ 4.00.30 - 3.58.60 = (-1.70)
'96 - Paddys Return........... 4.01.30 - 4.00.80 = (-0.50)
'91 - Oh So Risky ...............4.01.70 - 4.03.30 = (+1.60)
'99 - Katarino ....................4.02.40 - 3.57.80 = (-4.60)
'05 - Penzance.................. 4.03.60 - 4.01.30 = (-2.30)
'09 - Zaynar .....................4.03.90 - 4.05.20 = (+1.30)
'92 - Duke of Monmouth ......4.04.20 - 4.03.30 = (-0.90)
'04 - Made In Japan............ 4.05.30 -4.03.70 = (-1.60)
'02 - Scolardy.....................4.07.80 - 4.05.90 = (-1.90)
'08 - Celestial Halo...............4.07.80 - 4.09.40 = (+1.60)
'88 - Kribensis......................4.10.90 - 4.10.90 = zero
'95 - Kissair.........................4.14.20 - 4.14.30 = (+0.10)
'89 - Ikdam.........................4.18.90 - 4.20.20 = (+1.30)
I'm immediately tempted to discount Ikdam on the list as I'm sure the Triumph being run 4.70 secs slower than any other on the list, and the respective County 5.90 secs slower, then these times can be accounted for by falling rain during racing. Remember the Triumph would have been first up and thus likely to get the benefit of the conditions, where as the County being the so called 'lucky last' would get the worst. I'd be pretty confident 1989 is a rogue in the sample. 1988 and 1995 might also be attributable to rain, but in this case the times look more like soft to heavy ground that's being cut up during racing as much they do a torrential downpour. Celestial Halo's win last year probably fits a similar category of drizzle, but then the new course wasn't used until the Friday. The clue to Celestial Halo's ability probably lies in the idea that he matched Scolardy, yet Scolardy was well beaten (admittedly by a useful type!!!) where as Celestial was at least able to more than match his respective County winner and record the faster time. The stand out time is clearly Detroit City's who can't have any doubts about the weather being invoked. Oh So Risky is the only other Triumph winner that can similarly escape from the allegation of having the better of the weather, with Zaynar occupying something of no mans land sandwiched between Oh So Risky's 4.01.70 and Celestial Halo's 4.07.80 on 4.03.90.
Another notable charactersitic of this dataspread is the apparent absence of extreme values between the two races. Even where we expect rain to be affecting the times, both races still put up a differential that resembles that which occurs across the sample. Katarino's eclipse by Sir Talbot at 4.20 secs in the largest, followed by Shawiya on 3.40. If you drop the bottom decile out of the equation you get a quite tight spread between -2.80 to +1.60, which over a 20 year period for a 17F race isn't too bad. A mere 4.40 secs separates them. I couldn't be bothered to work the mean out as I'm not convinced it's that relevant, but a cursory look tells me its about 2 secs in favour of the County Hurdle.
So what does this tell us about Zaynar? Nothing that much I suppose. He's probably keeping the same company as a juvenile as Detroit City, Oh So Risky and possibly Celestial halo in that they've all beaten their County Hurdlers on apparent merit without climatic assistance, and that's not bad company I suppose. Those that went close don't read too bad either. Katchit, Paddys Return, Duke of Monmouth and possibly Kribensis.
However, and there is a big however, which totally disguises the value of Zaynar's performance. The County hurdle times only accounts for what time the winner crossed the line. American Trilogy was the biggest distance in the sample period at 11L's (the next nearest was 7) and yet Zaynar has still beaten him!!! by 1.30 secs. In effect the performance of American Trilogy is disguising the full extent of Zaynar's, which would be worth an additional 2.75 secs to the runner up for an overall superiority of 4.05 secs!!!. Was the 2009 County Hurdle a slowly run affair then?
It's possible I suppose, although it's quite unusual for something to pull so far clear off a slow pace. A winning distance this long in a competitive handicap normally indicates that it's been run at a decent clip with the only the one horse (who was probably very well in) able to impose himself, although distances of 10L's can be achieved at 2 miles in jog and sprint races where an uphill finish exists if the winner possesses a particularly devastating turn of foot.
Zaynar's profile most closely resembles that of Oh So Risky. He beat his County hurdler by 1.60 secs, who in turn beat his county field by 7L's. The only other big margin winners were Sir Talbot 6L's, Thumbs Up 6L's and the 1989 winner (name escapes me but this was also 6L's, but was probably rain affected as it was Ikdam's year). Thumbs Up and Sir Talbot also happened to be the two biggest margin winners over their respective Triumph winners though (Shawiya and Katarino - mentioned earlier) and in this case it suggests that the Triumph might not necessarily have been run at a true pace, so there has to be a question mark about just why the County was so much faster in those particular years, and it is possible that a slightly inadequate juvenile pace has flattered them in comparison.
In theory therefore, Oh So Risky is the only Triumph winner who has probably matched Zaynar.
The final thing I thought I'd try and do was rather than test Triumph winners against County winners, was to test Triumph winners against the 4th placed horse in the County, as this should exclude fast County winners and give us a clearer picture as to where the winners sit relative to placed horses etc
'09 - Zaynar .....................4.03.90 - 4.08.88 = (+4.98)
'89 - Ikdam.........................4.18.90 - 4.23.82 = (+4.92)*
'91 - Oh So Risky ...............4.01.70 - 4.06.42 = (+4.72)
'06 - Detroit City ............. 3.51.20 - 3.54.45 = (+3.25)
'08 - Celestial Halo............. 4.07.80 - 4.10.40 = (+2.60)
'88 - Kribensis....................4.10.90 - 4.13.27 = (+2.37)
'96 - Paddys Return........... 4.01.30 - 4.03.05 = (+1.75)
'95 - Kissair.......................4.14.20 - 4.15.70 = (+1.50)
'02 - Scolardy....................4.07.80 - 4.07.96 = (+0.16)
'07 - Katchit.................... 3.54.60 - 3.54.36 = (-0.23)
'97 - Commanche Court...... 4.00.20 - 3.59.95 = (-0.25)
'03 - Spectroscope............ 4.00.30 - 3.59.89 = (-0.41)
'90 - Rare Holiday............. 3.54.40 - 3.53.95 = (-0.45)
'99 - Katarino ....................4.02.40 - 4.01.80 = (-0.60)
'92 - Duke of Monmouth ......4.04.20 - 4.03.53 = (-0.66)
'05 - Penzance.................. 4.03.60 - 4.02.67 = (-0.92)
'00 - Snow Drop ...............3.52.90 - 3.51.83 = (-1.07)
'04 - Made In Japan............ 4.05.30 -4.04.21 = (-1.08)
'94 - Mysliv...................... 3.59.50 - 3.58.29 = (-1.20)
'98 - Upgrade ...................3.57.20 - 3.55.90 = (-1.30)
'93 - Shawiya ...................3.59.30 - 3.57.77 = (-1.52)
* - denotes likely to be subject of falling rain in running and should be ignored
Discounting the rogue, we've got a dual Champion hurdler runner up, a Champion hurdle fav (and flop), a Champion hurdle third, and a Champion hurdle winner. It's not bad juvenile compnay to be keeping
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