The 2024 Longshot Thread

A Mahler, might want two and a half to three, too. The 2 miler (maiden hurdle) she ran 3rd in looked fairly weak (which - I think - helped her get close over too short a distance. But for the bumper win she trounced Inion Tiogair, who went on to win a fairly useful looking Ludlow bumper (highly unexpectedly) for Grace Harris. Only a matter of time before Grace Harris finds the key over hurdles for that one.
 
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chaumi said:
A Mahler, might want two and a half to three, too. The 2 miler (maiden hurdle) she ran 3rd in looked fairly weak (which - I think - helped her get close over too short a distance. But for the bumper win she trounced Inion Tiogair, who went on to win a fairly useful looking Ludlow bumper (highly unexpectedly) for Grace Harris. Only a matter of time before Grace Harris finds the key over hurdles for that one.
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When inion tiogair won that's when I put Tina in my alerts.
 
Pun 2.35 - Any Second Now 28/1, 5 places, BOG - The handicapper has taken a real gamble in dropping the old warrior a significant amount, to 144 from 160 over the course of three runs. Sure, he's getting on but he wasn't far off his best in the National. He isn't entered in it this time so has nothing to gain by running down the park here again unless he's going for something like the Ultima in which he might just get in off 150-ish. Or maybe the Irish National or Whitbread. When he's right he's almost Gold Cup class. The second-top here are off 138 so would need to win by some way to have any chance of getting in at Aintree so ASN could be a proper G1/2 horse taking on Class 3s. I think the risk that he's trying in this 100k race is worth taking.
 
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Sixth keeping on as others gave up. I would say 'made to look' GOTG but another 7lbs drop for this would make him very dangerous looking in the Irish National.
 
I thought during the race that there was an intent not to win. Hard to be sure though, isn't it. Could be he doesn't have the pace to get a more prominent position early any more, or could be it was an intentional 'back of the field' run. Was right out of shot with two to jump, with 7 or 8 in front. You could argue that getting 6th from there was promising, certainly it was a little surprising (to me, anyway). Won't be falling off chair if he 'miraculously' puts in another big run before retirement. In the 'entered to run' tracker!
 
Desert Orchid said:
Grand National - Run Wild Fred 100/1, 5 places - in 2021, off 140 as a first-season novice in Ireland (146 here?) he was denied by 150/1 Freewheelin Dylan in the Irish National. Three runs later, in his second season, he was 9/4f off 159 in a G1. He was then 15/8f when second to Stattler in the NHC at the festival and was then only 8/1 for the National itself off 158 when he fell. He's now off 147 so should get in near the bottom of the weights, almost certainly under 11-0, following some disappointing runs.

He might not be the soundest of jumpers but many National winners fall into that category.

He might not even run but he does look very well handicapped these days and if Giggi/Elliott decide to go mob-handed he might be one of the mob and shouldn't be anywhere near that price if he does run.
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Entry #36 off 149 so will make the cut with ease as he only needs two to come out and there will be lots more than that.

Still 100/1 tops, 66s generally. I really can't see him going off anywhere near that price.

Below is a screen shot of the card in order of RPR. I'd ignore anything entered at #71 or higher as they're unlikely to make the cut. Take them out and there's loads of nice price entries.

Screenshot (70).png
 
Galvin and Delta work .Time form think they are well hcapped.

I think stattler 50/1 is worth a bet as well.
 
I was all over Galvin like a rash when he won the NHC in 2021 and he was only 10/3 for APT's Gold Cup when rated 168 so he must have a shout and a half off 155. I do think he's the most likely winner and have gone in heavily at 25/1 NRNB with Hills who deserve a wee shout for going with the concession this early.

I also have a 50/1 shot very much in mind. Just waiting to check if I can get the concession at the price.
 
Having backed Galvin at reasonably fancy prices last season, and confidently predicted a massive showing to friends and family (you know the rest), I will reluctantly have to have a saver again this year.

FWIW, I think Corach Rambler could easy win this again from the higher rating (had stacks up his sleeve, imo). I can see him being PU’d fairly early in the Gold Cup if he gets behind, to save him for the Nash.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Having backed Galvin at reasonably fancy prices last season, and confidently predicted a massive showing to friends and family (you know the rest), I will reluctantly have to have a saver again this year.
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He could be my 'Ben Nevis' type this year. I told everyone at TTC to get whatever was left of their grant on BN in 1979 when he was BD at something like 10/1 fav. I came home from Spain the following year to see the race with the family and stuck with him when he hacked up at 40s.


Grasshopper said:
FWIW, I think Corach Rambler could easy win this again from the higher rating (had stacks up his sleeve, imo). I can see him being PU’d fairly early in the Gold Cup if he gets behind, to save him for the Nash.
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The handicapper agrees (and so do I), other than...

Grasshopper said:
I can see him being PU’d fairly early in the Gold Cup if he gets behind, to save him for the Nash.
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If he gets PU in the GC, he might drift quite a bit for the GN so I'm in two minds about having anything on it at this stage.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I also have a 50/1 shot very much in mind. Just waiting to check if I can get the concession at the price.
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Can't get the concession at the price so have taken 33/1 with it. Salvador Ziggy is the horse and I think it is a bigger cert than was Galvin for the NHC. When he wins that pulling double he'll be just about favourite for the National. :D
 
I hope you're right DO. I've been on him at nice prices since he was 2nd in the Kerry Nash in September. I do think it could be quite a hot NH Chase this year though.
 
I've just realised Salvador Ziggy is unlikely to qualify for the National. He's only had four runs over fences and the NHC is likely to be his fifth, whereas they need to have run at least six times by late March.
 
chaumi said:
Watch out for the Daly yard, hasn't really fired properly this season, but Bretney, Rapper (great run, just outpaced at the wrong time?), and Supreme Gift (another great ride by Alice Stevens, thought he was going to go past but it's super hard to beat a Pauling runner right now), all sending signals the yard may have gone hot. Two runners outside of the first 3 in the Ascot bumper, but it looked hot enough.

Thought Full Back ran well enough, 3 or 4 sticky jumps possibly did him and couldn't go through with an effort from about 3 out
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Been following this and his Bridge North surely would have won the 14:35 Doncaster at around 16’s but for falling at the last, jockey sitting motionless on him. Will track all his runners next few weeks cheers.
 
nickf88 said:
Been following this and his Bridge North surely would have won the 14:35 Doncaster at around 16’s but for falling at the last, jockey sitting motionless on him. Will track all his runners next few weeks cheers.
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I was on him as well.
 
Saturday, 3.37 (fuxake) Kempton - Unanswered Prayers 25/1, 5 places (Sky) - figures high up my ratings table on his best form, when I reckon he'd have been not far behind Yeah Man when that one was second to Victtorino at Ascot in soft in November. Next time he travelled well into his race over that CD on better ground but started skying his fences in the home straight, costing him momentum and ground before being hampered and unseating at the last. He disappointed next time, perhaps too many races in too short a time, and has been off since but he's had a wind op a month ago and if it helps he could be ready to find the 10lbs improvement for a second-season novice that I always look for. The father-son trainer-jockey combo did me a big turn with Annual Invictus in the Great Yorkshire a couple of weeks back. They know how to target big races. It won't be my main bet in the race but the price might be totally wrong.
 
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Newcastle 2.08 (Eider) - Sidi Ismael 50/1, 4 places - a disappointing type on the whole but an out and out soft ground plodder who is top rated on his best form, a good second to Truckers Lodge at Ffos Las in April off 134. He gets in here off 127 and the boy, who has a decent record for the trainer, takes another seven off. If he's on his best form he might end up last man standing. (So he'll unseat at the first.) I want him onside at the price.
 
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Sidi Ismael runs in the Devon Nash (3.40 Exeter) today


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I scanned the cards last night to see if H.Daly had a runner and didn't see any.he just had a 20/1 winner.
I must concentrate more.
 
viking said:
Sidi Ismael runs in the Devon Nash (3.40 Exeter) today
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Down at the second.

Get him washed down and into a horsebox up to Newcastle :lol:

Edit - it kept going riderless, completed the entire race and finished alongside the winner who won by no fewer than 60 lengths. I guess old Sidi won't be going to Newcastle after all.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Edit - it kept going riderless, completed the entire race and finished alongside the winner who won by no fewer than 60 lengths. I guess old Sidi won't be going to Newcastle after all.
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Yeah I was thinking when he came down that they might turn him out tomorrow after all but not when he ran all the way around


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Saturday, Newbury 1.20 - Cyclop 20/1 - the trainer has only had two runners in this race and both have won, including this fellow last season. There has to be a fair chance they've had one eye on this race for some time...
 
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