Euro 2016 betting thread

S

SlimChance

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Let's make this the thread for discussion of the key betting issues for the 2016 European championship. Links to squad announcement, discussions on likely starting XI's, opinion on markets, obscure special markets and general betting angles are most welcome.
 
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The Top Goalscorer market is an obvious starting point. Most firms will not revise this market until the squads are announced so there is bound to be some stale prices along with some terrible prices among them. 25/1 James Vardy anyone?

Germany and France are both trading around 3/1 to be the highest scoring team in the tournament. The French attack is not as obvious to name with Karim Benzema out of the squad and Olivier Giroud struggling for form.

Andre Pierre Gignac at 50/1 for tournament top goalscorer and 14/1 for Top French goalscorer is on my radar but right now there is an obvious bet to have. Antoine Griezmann the 'hottest striker in Europe' is all set to lead the line. He's playing at a serious level at the very highest level and has group games against Switzerland, Albania and Romania to get him started. I can see the current 12/1 1/4 odds 1.2.3.4 being a best price being a scarce 10/1 on June 10th.
 
Vardy is 50's with Coral and boyles, Slim.
I think it's worth a shot, on form he should start with Kane
but.
Roy and Rooney are up eachothers backsides so he'll probably start him with Kane.
Sturridge is class but has a bit of negativity surrounding him at the moment it seems. He'd give good balance being left footed but liable to get injured.
 
NHughes said:
Vardy is 50's with Coral and boyles, Slim.
I think it's worth a shot, on form he should start with Kane
but.
Roy and Rooney are up eachothers backsides so he'll probably start him with Kane.
Sturridge is class but has a bit of negativity surrounding him at the moment it seems. He'd give good balance being left footed but liable to get injured.
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The 50/1 will probably go in the next week but he's 5/4 to start the opening game against Russia.
 
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Top goal scorer market depends on two crucial factors: Being the main striker and going deep into the tournament.
England under Hodgson could be out in the first knockout match. Vardy is not guaranteed to play if Shrek is available.
Ronaldo is another short in the betting whose team could be out early.
Griezman and Muller are short enough on merit and a case could be made for both.
Spain are the ones I'm looking to as they are much better than the abomination of Rio in 2014 (Diego Costa) and could go deep into the tournament meaning more games to score in.
They have two excellent strikers in Paco Alcacer and Alvaro Morata but I'm leaning towards Morata. At just 23 years old this kid has bags of experience with Juve and Real, and if he is chosen as the main striker he could knock quite a few in. 33/1 would look good if he is Spain's main striker.
 
The draw is more complicated than previous European championships. The Last 16 draw for the runners up in Groups A,B,C and F is likely to be more favorable than for the runners up of Groups D and E. There is a predictor here that you can play around with. Its easier work out why say, Austria 7/4 are so short to make the quarter final stage when looking at this tool.

Knockout phase structure

In the round of 16, UEFA have arranged the match-ups to take place as follows:[40]

Match 1: Runner-up Group A v Runner-up Group C
Match 2: Winner Group D v 3rd Place Group B/E/F
Match 3: Winner Group B v 3rd Place Group A/C/D
Match 4: Winner Group F v Runner-up Group E
Match 5: Winner Group C v 3rd Place Group A/B/F
Match 6: Winner Group E v Runner-up Group D
Match 7: Winner Group A v 3rd Place Group C/D/E
Match 8: Runner-up Group B v Runner-up Group F

The specific match-ups involving the third-placed teams depend on which four third-placed teams qualify for the round of 16
 
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harry said:
Top goal scorer market depends on two crucial factors: Being the main striker and going deep into the tournament.
England under Hodgson could be out in the first knockout match. Vardy is not guaranteed to play if Shrek is available.
Ronaldo is another short in the betting whose team could be out early.
Griezman and Muller are short enough on merit and a case could be made for both.
Spain are the ones I'm looking to as they are much better than the abomination of Rio in 2014 (Diego Costa) and could go deep into the tournament meaning more games to score in.
They have two excellent strikers in Paco Alcacer and Alvaro Morata but I'm leaning towards Morata. At just 23 years old this kid has bags of experience with Juve and Real, and if he is chosen as the main striker he could knock quite a few in. 33/1 would look good if he is Spain's main striker.
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Working out the Spanish number 9 is not easy. Del Bosque sent first goalscorer markets into a frenzy when he played Fabregas as a 'false 9' in Euro 2012. He started Aritz Aduriz at number 9 against Italy. Was that to test dropping Diego Costa? Paco Alcacer is also in the mix for the role. I'm guessing Morata starts at 7.
 
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I don't believe the top goalscorer counts on going deep into tournaments. Most important thing is getting goals in the group stages. If we look at the last few Euros and World Cups and check when the top goalscorer's last goal was scored we have this:

WC 2014 - Quarter Finals
Euro 2012 - Ignore, 6 scorers with 3 goals each, nope.
WC 2010 - 3rd place playoff
Euro 2008 - Group stage
WC 2006 - Quarter Finals
Euro 2004 - Quarter Finals
WC 2002 - Final
Euro 2000 - Quarter Final

Out of 8 tournaments, you've got 1 of them where the player actually scored in the final, and that one he was so far ahead he could have stopped scoring after the 2nd round and still won the Golden Boot. Only one other who scored in the semis or further and the rest all quarters and before. You don't need a player in a good team to be top goalscorer, you need a player who is the main focal point of the team that they're in, and have the ability to score 4/5 goals in the first 4/5 matches of the tournament.

I've not looked at the market but I may do beforehand, you simply need a player that has a realistic chance of scoring a hat-trick in the group stages or a couple of goals in more than one game. Spain is probably a wasted bet as they haven't had a focal point goalscorer since David Villa.

Don't be concerned if you fancy a player who plays for a team who you fancy won't get further than the quarters.
 
SlimChance said:
Working out the Spanish number 9 is not easy. Del Bosque sent first goalscorer markets into a frenzy when he played Fabregas as a 'false 9' in Euro 2012. He started Aritz Aduriz at number 9 against Italy. Was that to test dropping Diego Costa? Paco Alcacer is also in the mix for the role. I'm guessing Morata starts at 7.
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Yes I agree; that's factored into the price of 33/1. IF... he starts with him, you could have a long ride for your cash. Alcacer is a fine player too...can't have Aduriz as the main striker. Morata is the classiest with big game experience for the biggest clubs. Costa is a liability, a red card waiting to happen and a distraction.

Im looking for a team that could play a lot of matches in the tournament.
I can't have England with Hodgson so they might be playing 3 matches then lose in the first K/O game.
 
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AliGupter said:
I think you need to look at which teams in the group stages are most likely to ship 4/5+ goals.
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I tend to agree with that. I'd also look at players who score goals in bursts and those who take penalties and free kicks. Muller is probably a worthy favourite but Lewandowski could be hot to trot against Germany and will test Ukraine and Northern Ireland. 16/1 looks fair. Also, Austria and Switzerland could potentially score freely in the group stages. Problem is that Switzerland aren't known for scoring too many and Austria tend to share the goals about. However, David Alaba plays midfield for them and takes penalties so 150/1 is ok. The other team who could score plenty is Belgium but they're another team that could spread the goals around.
 
archie said:
I tend to agree with that. I'd also look at players who score goals in bursts and those who take penalties and free kicks. Muller is probably a worthy favourite but Lewandowski could be hot to trot against Germany and will test Ukraine and Northern Ireland. 16/1 looks fair. Also, Austria and Switzerland could potentially score freely in the group stages. Problem is that Switzerland aren't known for scoring too many and Austria tend to share the goals about. However, David Alaba plays midfield for them and takes penalties so 150/1 is ok. The other team who could score plenty is Belgium but they're another team that could spread the goals around.
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Robert Lewandowski is 16/1 but the other Polish striker Arkadiusz Milik is nearly ten times his price. Lewandowski had more attempts in the qualifying games and this is likely to be replicated in the group games but are they that far apart? Lets look at their Euro 2016 qualifying stats.

Player
Minutes Played
Attempts
Goals
SR %
Robert Lewandowski
876
42
13
30.95%
Arkadiusz Milik
745
27
6
22.22%


Arkadiusz Milik 150/1 hit the woodwork on two occasions in the qualifiers. Here is what the comparison would have looked like had those two shots rebounded in rather than out.

Player
Minutes Played
Attempts
Goals
SR %
Robert Lewandowski
876
42
13
30.95%
Arkadiusz Milik
745
27
8
29.63%

Should one player be 16/1 and the other players150/1? If the market thinks that Lewandowski is third favuorite for the market based on their opponents and likely amount of games than perhaps the 150/1 should be closer to 50/1.

If anyone sees a Top Poland Goalscorer market than please post a link as he is likely to undervalued in that market too.
 
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AliGupter said:
I've not having this.
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Can you elaborate please? This is supposed to be a thread to tease out markets, theories and bets and not a black and white "this wins" and that has "no chance" thread.
 
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SlimChance said:
Robert Lewandowski is 16/1 but the other Polish striker Arkadiusz Milik is nearly ten times his price. Lewandowski had more attempts in the qualifying games and this is likely to be replicated in the group games but are they that far apart? Lets look at their Euro 2016 qualifying stats.

PlayerMinutes PlayedAttemptsGoalsSR %
Robert Lewandowski876421330.95%
Arkadiusz Milik74527622.22%


Arkadiusz Milik 150/1 hit the woodwork on two occasions in the qualifiers. Here is what the comparison would have looked like had those two shots rebounded in rather than out.

PlayerMinutes PlayedAttemptsGoalsSR %
Robert Lewandowski876421330.95%
Arkadiusz Milik74527829.63%

Should one player be 16/1 and the other players150/1? If the market thinks that Lewandowski is third favuorite for the market based on their opponents and likely amount of games than perhaps the 150/1 should be closer to 50/1.

If anyone sees a Top Poland Goalscorer market than please post a link as he is likely to undervalued in that market too.
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It's possible that Milik might benefit from defenders' concentration on Lewandowski but the fact that Lewandowski managed 42 attempts does point to his ability to slip even tight marking. My main liking for him is that he scores goals in batches and he's more likely to score a hat-trick than anyone else on the list. Injury is an unknown factor but, if both remained uninjured through the group stage, you'd have to have Lewandowski long odds on in a match bet with Milik. 150/1 is a decent price for Milik but that doesn't mean that 16/1 is a bad price for Lewandowski.
 
How many did milik score against Gibraltar? Genuinely don't know but scoring stats from that group could be widely misleading ( even Robbie Keane scored plenty against them)

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SlimChance said:
Can you elaborate please? This is supposed to be a thread to tease out markets, theories and bets and not a black and white "this wins" and that has "no chance" thread.
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I think giving players goals that didn't go in to make stats look more favourable is pushing it a little bit.

How many times did Lewandowski hit the woodwork in qualifying?
 
AliGupter said:
I think giving players goals that didn't go in to make stats look more favourable is pushing it a little bit.

How many times did Lewandowski hit the woodwork in qualifying?
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None.

I'm not trying to make him look more favourable. I'm pointing out a scenario that would indicate he shouldn't be ten times the price of another player on his team.
 
littlelad said:
How many did milik score against Gibraltar? Genuinely don't know but scoring stats from that group could be widely misleading ( even Robbie Keane scored plenty against them)

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Unfortunately I can't split out their attempts in each game. If anyone knows a site that will allow me to that than please let me know. These are their goals and minutes in the group games against opponents that were not Gibraltar.

Player
Minutes Played
Goals
GPM
Robert Lewandowski
810
7
0.0086
Arkadiusz Milik
674
4
0.0059
 
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SlimChance said:
Unfortunately I can't split out their attempts in each game. If anyone knows a site that will allow me to that than please let me know. These are their goals and minutes in the group games against opponents that were not Gibraltar.

Player
Minutes Played
Goals
GPM
Robert Lewandowski
810
7
0.0086
Arkadiusz Milik
674
4
0.0059
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That's pretty convincing to be fair!!

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In think you have found a decent option in Milik, Slim. He scored in 5 of the 10 qualifying games, and Lewandowski's Goal numbers are slightly skewed anyway, by dint of him banging three past Georgia in injury-time in Tiblisi (scored late-on in a number of their Qualifiers, the ba*stard).

They should be a lot closer on price, and I confess I have dived-in at the 150/1 and nicked your chips, pal. :lol:

Edit. I should add that I was limited to £15 each-way at B365.
 
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I'm struggling to see where Poland are going to get the goals, Germany are a counter attacking team and I'm no expert on Ukraine but they've been historically difficult to score against the last 10 years or so, are we expecting Northern Ireland to get routed by Poland here?
 
It's got me looking at the groups this, it's a bloody shame Benzema isn't going. He'd be as close to a shoe in as you can get for a Golden Boot imo, could have got my money back from the World Cup and that dodgy ref blowing for full time as he scored against Switzerland...
 
AliGupter said:
I'm struggling to see where Poland are going to get the goals, Germany are a counter attacking team and I'm no expert on Ukraine but they've been historically difficult to score against the last 10 years or so, are we expecting Northern Ireland to get routed by Poland here?
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You can't ignore the fact that they out-scored Germany by 11 goals during the Qualifying campaign, and only conceded one more, AG. They also scored in every away leg, including in Berlin, when the Jeeries only put the game to bed late on. They're by no means fashionable, but they are a perfectly-capable side, and this guy Milik has to be over-priced any way I look at it.
 
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