Form Study or Maths

Tried form study many many many years ago but it didn't work for me, too many bent races, that's when I changed to math, never look at the form these days.
 
Sectional timing is one example of trying to reduce horse racing to a mathematical formula.
As the Aly Khan once famously said "The answers are in the form book" and I believe it requires more finesse than can be reduced to figures.
 
I wouldn't know what a formbook is.On the big days I have my head stuck in the betfair screen.At Cheltenham tne Gold Cup was probably the only race I watched completely live.
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Even with this small response so far, it is as expected in so much that each of us, as individuals, have our own way of doing things. We use the method that suits us best. I always see finding a winner as trying to do a 500 piece jigsaw with 10 of the pieces missing. We are not in possession of all of the facts needed and at the end of the day we are guessing. And thats what we do - guess. We are all guessers. Some people will put a lot of time and effort into it and will be informed guessers. Others will pick a horse out on instinct while others follow certain horses. There are loads of ways of going about trying to find the next winner. But at the end of the day, we are all guessers.
Even the facts we have cannot really be classed as facts. The going reports are the best example. Or should that be the worst example ? Was the ground really good to soft ? Was it more good than soft ? Was it more soft than good ? Was it actually good ??? Different jockeys will give differing views on the ground after riding on it. Some going reports are sometimes so far out that you wonder if the clerk of the course has actually walked it in the last week or so. How many times have we seen them change the going description two or three times during the course of the afternoon !
And are the races really run over the advertised distances ? Especially when the rails have been moved in the day or two prior to the meeting. We know that there are quite a few tracks who move them from meeting to meeting, (Market Rasen being the main culprits) and then give out the revised distances afterwards. But are those always right. There have been occasions where i have doubted it. And does your "average" punter even know about them. Most will just look at their morning paper, see the advertised trip, and take that as fact. The revised ones are never shown in many papers. Take Fakenham on Tuesday for instance. The rails have been moved out and the race distances are between 158yds and 301yds longer than advertised. The Norfolk National has gone from three miles five furlongs up to three miles six and a half furlongs. The last race is over a furlong further. But most papers wont show that.
We all have to do with the information we are given But some of that can be taken with a pinch of salt. And the two most important bits we need, we do not get and never will. And one is impossible to fathom.
So we all do the best we can with what we have. And whichever way we do it.

But it is great fun though, isnt it ? :)

Have a good day all.
 
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Your wrong Reet, I have made it pay for a long long time by simply using maths, you may not believe me but its true.

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sunshine said:
Your wrong Reet, I have made it pay for a long long time by simply using maths, you may not believe me but its true.

I don't doubt that some have success using maths to turn a profit, there was a group who made fortunes applying their algorithms to theHong Kong totes,and thereare some on this forum who use figures alone for profit.​

Good luck to all,it would never float my boat.​

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sunshine said:
Your wrong Reet, I have made it pay for a long long time by simply using maths, you may not believe me but its true.

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I will believe you when you start posting your selection and they start showing a profit.....until then if you could work our race results using maths there wouldn't be a bookie to be found this side of China
 
I'm pretty sure that algorithms taking into account past runs are just a way of quantifying most of the key variables. Sectionals are just another aspect of form like trip handicapping or going preferences.

The only 'math' based approach that I'm aware of is using software that predicts price changes; I don't class arbing or advantage ew betting as math. So to those who say they rely purely on math I assume this is most of what you are doing.
 
I used to post selections, on the Betfair forum and on the Betdaq forum 'Sunshines extraordinary Each Way bets' and they made a substantial profit after over one year, so what do you think of that Tanic. I know and that's all that matters, I have nothing to prove to anyone.
 
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sunshine said:
I used to post selections, on the Betfair forum and on the Betdaq forum 'Sunshines extraordinary Each Way bets' and they made a substantial profit after over one year, so what do you think of that Tanic. I know and that's all that matters, I have nothing to prove to anyone.
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What you haven’t done it give us any indication of what you mean by “maths”. For me, I rely first and foremost on trying to determine if a horse is ready to rock (via replays) after that form (not relative form, but whether it has shown it can compete at that level, distance and going etc and then market action.
 
When Laying there is a limit to how far a horse can shorten, when backing there is also a limit to how far a horse can drift, identifying this limit is found through simple Maths.
 
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I've found backing the one I considered to have the coolest name profitable over the years.

That and keeping my methods to myself.

#nevergivethemtherecipe

Fortuitously, the internet seems full of people (evidently grimly determined to show everyone how bloody clever they are), unlike me, giving away their edges, left, right and centre.

Which is nice.
 
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