The 2024 Longshot Thread

Had a go at BallygrifinCottage 20/1 (6 places) with Paddy Power (same terms available with Bet365)for the Scottish Nash
This fella looked very promising before losing his way badly at the beginning of last year. He’s had a wind op since and showed signs of a return to form at Ascot and Sandown the last twice. Dan Skelton will surely have trained him for this race and Harry rides. What’s not to like [emoji1]

Edit: just noticed the 20s has gone with PP but still available with B365


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Desert Orchid said:
Runs in the Spring Cup on Saturday but only 10s tops.

I see my hopes of being able to bet more widely here in Spain have been shattered. When I tried to back this one this morning I wasn't allowed to via my phone. I wonder if the difference is that last week I was out and about whereas today I was trying from the hotel. I'll try again when I'm out and about later just to see. I wanted to take the 10s but it's only 17/2 with Unibet.
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There's £25 at 9.8 looks to be available on BF right now. Drop me a PM if you want to take it and we can sort it out either way when you're back.
 
An alternative solution is, next time, get a VPN installed on the phone. A paid one is probably best, off the top of my head maybe £25 a year. You may be able to get a free one but that probably shows ads. A VPN allows you to choose a UK IP address, so you're kind of spoofing the networks (or bookies) into thinking you're accessing from within the UK.
 
chaumi said:
There's £25 at 9.8 looks to be available on BF right now. Drop me a PM if you want to take it and we can sort it out either way when you're back.
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Thanks, chaumi.

I managed to get a bet on today with WH so I'll try other bookies through the day.
 
Rare post on this thread -Whistle Stop Tour 2:20 Ayr currently 23 on betfair.Owners target this meeting and trainer won the first race.
 
LUKE said:
Betfair sp was 16.5-chinned for second on the line.I thought he ran a great race.Lucinda in Good form.
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Aye. She's got the banker of the day in the 1.15 at Ayr tomorrow, Traprain Law. I just hope it stays soft.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Scottish National - Inis Oirr 20/1, 5 places -


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Being trained in Scotland by a dual GN-winning trainer, the chances are it will be a popular choice through the week and will probably halve in price.
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Duly halved. 10/1 tops this morning and generally shorter. Happy to it onside.

I'll add another longshot later. Breakfast buffet beckons...
 
Ayr 2.25 - Petit Tonnerre 28/1 - has the winning of this on his County form last season. Not my main bet (that's Bialystok) but hopeful of a big run.

Ayr 3.35 - Iron Bridge 25/1, 6 places - bit of a forgotten horse here but lightly raced and well up to the mark if at his best. Late owner liked this race so it's maybe been plotted up. Stable mate of PT above so a wee ew double looks in order.
 
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I always remember an esteemed (in my eyes) and abhorred (in some others) race reader saying something some 8-10 years ago like ' watch out for a horse coming back to hurdles from fences, they invariably need a run or two to readjust'. Sadly, for my betting wallet anyway, I've seen plenty of examples in the last 8-10 years where that hasn't held true. And some that have, ofc.

But maybe worth noting PT was on first run back over hurdles when well back in the County last time. There were form interpretations beforehand where you might have expected a much better run and surely connections did, too. Maybe now is the better time to play him. Sadly, again, I took around 20s a few days ago. Much more attractive now.




Danny said:
Tommie beau
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Seamus Mullins does (often unexpectedly) well with his chasers when they appear to be up against it, doesn't he. Witness TBs 3rd in the Eider, Moroder the other day, and a few other examples in recent years.

I'd say Egbert (fancied somewhat by Alan King, and he knows what it takes to win this), and Surrey Quest (probably saved for this but appears to have missed what was likely a warm-up on March 9th) could both go well at 40-1 and 33-1 respectively
 
I can’t believe that it was ten years ago that Alan King won the race (where does the time go?) and remember how emotional he was about it so I, too have thrown some pennies at Egbert. Having said that, as a long time follower of the Kinneston horses I’d love Elvis Mail to win it!
 
chaumi said:
I'd say Egbert (fancied somewhat by Alan King, and he knows what it takes to win this), and Surrey Quest (probably saved for this but appears to have missed what was likely a warm-up on March 9th) could both go well at 40-1 and 33-1 respectively
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Good shout with Surrey Quest mightily unlucky pal.
 
Yep, a painful inch. Or even half-inch! As they hit the line, there was a cashout on BF for nor far off the full winnings. I 'knew' he was beat on the line, just couldn't hit the cashout quickly enough :-(

But tomorrow is another day! :)
 
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I backed macdermott last night at 10/1 and Surrey quest at 60 today.

Usually when a horse I've backed the night before lengthens the next day, I'll go in again. I didn't.

Won £30 but that would've been £120 if Surrey had won or £66 if I'd gone back in again.

Kicking myself. Can't let it go.
 
Punchestown 6.00 - Salvador Ziggy 33/1 BOG - ground finally coming right for it. Bit of a cliff horse for me but I still think it must be one of the best staying novices around.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Punchestown 6.00 - Salvador Ziggy 33/1 BOG - ground finally coming right for it. Bit of a cliff horse for me but I still think it must be one of the best staying novices around.
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Out to 66/1.

While I had the BOG, I decided to cash out for a 10% loss.

Then I decided to go back in at the 66s just in case the price shortened again.
 
I fancy a couple to run well at big prices today. Whether they can get in the places is what it's all about though. I feel they'll both run better races than they've been doing anyway. I guess I'm paying to find out, in terms of their final finishing positions.

3:40 King Of Kingsfield. The owner stated at the Cheltenham Festival that Elliot had told him this horse would hate the soft/heavy ground that he would encounter in the County Hurdle. So I put a big line through that run. I think he was progressive before that, and he's a fair old price today for an each bet. Yes, he's up to graded company, but you just never know what he's been doing at home,. He's showing blue on oddschecker, which is a good sign.

5:25 Maskada was impressive when winning the 2023 Grand Annual. On paper she improved for going to Henry De Bromhead's yard. She hasn't gone on this season, though she was too keen the last day, so I think the tongue tie is a good addition. Yes, she has a few pounds to find on ratings, albeit she does have a weight allowance, but if she can return to the form of her Grand Annual win, she can out runs the odds in this race. I don't think she's the 'best horse' in the field by any means, my theory is that hopefully she'll come right today, whereas a few others might be off the boil after a hard season.
 
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Our Girl Sal 66/1 3.05. I always back horses in handicaps trained by P Fahey. Only problem is there are several P Faheys and I get them mixed up so have to back all of them! I’ve had some big priced winners trained by P Faheys!
 
Money on that race seems to be going on Drumgill and The Flying Bee so I’ve backed those too! Other than that today seems to be a Mullins whitewash day. ( Mont Beuvray was doing well against both of those when he unseated at the last so I’ve added him at 200/1!) I’d imagine the lot of them will finish in a heap at the back!
 
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