The Derby & Irish Derby 2009

the scenarios as I see it

10f fast pace
STS would win..F&G would be the Conduit type of finisher

10f slow pace
STS would win - is speedier than STS

12f slow pace - STS has already won that one

12f fast pace - ?
 
EC1 said:
the scenarios as I see it

10f fast pace
STS would win..F&G would be the Conduit type of finisher

10f slow pace
STS would win - is speedier than STS

12f slow pace - STS has already won that one

12f fast pace - ?
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I would side for F&G for the 12f fast pace one but would agree with your other choices - assuming of course the ground suited STS.
 
Galileo said:
Would you have thought Rip Van Winkle was a near 130 horse before the weekend? I think not.

I think Fame And Glory is capable of a 130 plus performance over 12 furlongs. He was not struck with the whip even once at The Curragh and was just ridden hands and heels the whole way. If we are lead to believe Sea The Stars had plenty left in the tank after strong driving and frequent use of the whip in the last furlong on Saturday then I think its fair to say F&G was at the very least as equally a comfortable winner at The Curragh relative to STS.

Fame And Glory is by Montjeu out of a Shirley Heights mare so is bred to improve with time (as his physical make up confirms) and was out late last year so there is every reason to expect plenty of improvement particularly with the benefit of a summers break. The Arc is his race all being well.
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I did think RVW was better than we had seen - yes..130 no I didn't.

The rest of your post is so full of ifs and maybes you really are only guessing at...yes its possible that F&G is a 130 horse...its also possible he isn't.....and you have exhaggerated about STS being strongly driven

its such a pro Coolmore post..I don't understand the allegienace at all I'm afraid.

if you took an independent position it would all become clearer i reckon

i'm not a Coolmore knocker either..i would hope that has become clear over the months
 
Galileo said:
I would side for F&G for the 12f fast pace one but would agree with your other choices - assuming of course the ground suited STS.
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..softer would suit F&G..faster would suit STS

again we have that variable to throw in the mix

we aren't going to get an answer to this..i do hope they meet again..but just cannot see it happening
 
Galileo said:
Would you have thought Rip Van Winkle was a near 130 horse before the weekend? I think not.
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No, i wouldn't and I was clearly quite wrong. However, i went on racecourse evidence and not reputation which is my general way of assessing things. I had no bet Saturday so no financial impact but clearly my assessment of R%ip Van Winkle was incorrect.

I think we are seeing the best 3 year old in quite some time; to think a very good but by no means great horse such as FAG can beat him is wide of the mark imho, though i hope we get the chance to see it as both trainers have indicated they'll run in the Irish Champion stakes.
 
Galileo said:
If we have a wet York and Leopardstown will Sea The Stars definitely not run in them?
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I wouldn't have thought so, although there may come a point as the targets go by that you just have to run the colt.

Oxx faced a similar problem with Azamour in the 2004 Champion Stakes when it turned up soft. But he had a fit horse, and no other plans for him that season, so he ran him. He ran a decent third behind Haafhd and Chorist but was patently unsuited by the ground.
 
STS needed the whip because he dawdles a bit at times. Hes a bit of a lad isnt he? F&G didnt need the whip but was clearly stretching out as strongly as he could. To his credit sure, but much more there? I sense not...

Is it an absolute certainty that STS will not perform with givein the ground? Oxx is naturally cautious isnt he?
 
Much more there on the day? Maybe not. But I think it's pretty early days for a middle distance 3-y-o to be suggesting hey have shown all they will.
 
I would hope (and expect) Fame And Glory will go the Niel and Arc route rather than the Irish Champion where the stable have much more suitable contenders.
 
Galileo said:
He is certainly a more versatile horse than Fame And Glory (in terms of trip - seemingly not the ground). Like I said (time and time again) I would not fancy F&G to beat Sea The Stars over ten furlongs (unless it became soft) but I would give him a fighting chance to do it over 12 furlongs in a strongly run event....I do not think what I am saying is that controversial particularly when I am happy to give Sea The Stars the plaudids of a 130 plus performance on Saturday.
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This seems fair to me... personally I'd want to back Fame over STS in the Arc though, but I doubt STS would take him on in that.
 
I have Fame And Glory provisionally on 128 for the Irish Derby via Golden Sword at 120 at Epsom but the race is less solid than the Eclipse. It puts Mourayan up from 111 to something like 118/119 but I think it confirms Mourayan probably ran to form with FAG previously.
 
How does 6 lengths ridden vigorously equate to an 11 pound difference over 12 furlongs? I can understand a + (though i don't subscribe to that view myself).

This is absolute nonsense.
 
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