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Paddy Power Gold Cup

Grasshopper

Grasshopper

Senior Jockey
Joined
Nov 14, 2006
Messages
16,014
Can't find a dedicated thread for this race - which surprised me. Most of the chat is buried in the 'Looking Ahead' thread, but better we have the race discussed separately (good habit to get into anyway).

Now we have concluded that small piece of governance, here comes the drivel.

I have backed Oscar Rock. He was a very good Bumper horse in the North a couple of seasons back, and whilst he was probably only fair as a novice hurdler, they might have been running him at the wrong trip. Since he went chasing and returned to around 2m4f, he has gone really well - and would have been 4-from-4 as a novice, if not for being hampered and falling at Ayr in the spring. He jumps well, he stays, and whilst he isn't obviously well-handicapped, I do think he is still unexposed - and whilst I don't put much stock in these things, the trainer is bullish about his chances.

16/1 is good enough for me.
 
Shortlist at the moment is Annacotty, always liked the horse and 1st time out for King is interesting. Also had ew double with Rock the Kasbah in Greatwood
Irish Cavalier, won me plenty the last 2 times, reminds me a bit of the Murphy horse that won this
Boondooma really liked him on October, step up in trip shouldnt be a problem
Splash of Ginge- because I cant watch him win!!!!!!
 
That Boonadooma race looked complete gash to me. Johns Spirit for me, for reasons put in t'other thread/
 
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Im on Annacotty. Personally hope it wins for the Racing Manager who has taken some **** from the keyboard warriors of twitter after she moved the horse. I also like Monataire of Pipes, and PFNs horse is peeking out at me after betting his winner last year.
 
My suggestion would be Generous Ransom, did well to win here on Festival Trials Day earlier this year and a decent third at the Festival, both on more or less C&D, and obviously likes the place. Had a run out at the Showcase last month over hurdles and looked to be tenderly ridden to me. Daryl Jacob back on board as he was in January and March. The race has been kind to the Giffords in the past and I imagine the yard has been targeting this race for a while.

Interesting that Henderson relies on just the one horse, Cocktails At Dawn, but he hasn't run well here on three occasions in the past.
 
Present View is still interesting.
You'd have thought trainer would have had him blood tested and checked after last time.
I'd expect him to be un backed here, so I'd be more interested in him if some money came for him in truth.
Could the blinkers relight his fire?

I don't fancy much else...
 
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Oscar Rock for me. Never struck me as a PP horse until his Market Rasen run. Just really liked that run and hoped he would go for this.
Generous Ransom an alternative maybe. I really should be dismissing Splash Of Ginge!
 
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age

>8yo = 9/97
8yo+ = 1/86

ratings band

150+ = 1/46
139-149 = 9/94
138- = 0/43

shortlist

splash of ginge
buywise
anacotty
art mauresque
shanpallas
present view
generous ransom

last 10 winners had less than 10 runs over fences..which removes anacotty - shanpallas


will have a look at form on the day and whittle them down

 
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I'm also in the Generous Ransom camp. He strikes me as the one on the most workable mark and he's won over course and distance. I Would also have backed Little Jon if he'd got in which won't happen unless there's a couple of mishaps.
 
Although History has proven that he couldn't tell a good hurdler from a barrel of herring, I am four square behind the Grassy one on this. Oscar Rock.
 
Looks a tough puzzle to solve tomorrow, The withdrawal of Ptit Zig was a blow as he would of dotted up even off top weight
If pushed I'd be going for Monetaire but Johns Spirit should be a very solid place bet

Sunday looks an excellent card.
 
Leaning towards Boondooma

if there is a good horse in the race, it will be this one I think

He was good value for his win the last day and is still a few lbs ahead of the handicapper
 
granger said:
Leaning towards Boondooma

if there is a good horse in the race, it will be this one I think

He was good value for his win the last day and is still a few lbs ahead of the handicapper
Click to expand...

Have you heard the latest FF podcast? Kind of dismissed this horse's last race but Rory waxing lyrical about him sort of changed my mind a bit.
 
Im struggling to see the point of running Dell Arca in that race
He's crying out to be run in a handicap off that mark.
 
O.k I've decided to have a small wager and attempt to blow a five figure hole in Paddy Power at their own meet. Although a long shot I really think the bet has a little merit to it.

In the paddy power chase I've come down on the side of Oscar Rock. When I initially looked at him I thought he seemed harshly treated on what he had achieved so far he also has a lack of course form which is usually a bit of a negative and tbh I'm taking a little bit of a chance that he will handle the track. Having watched his win last time at Market Rasen he travelled beautifully throughout the race and although caught a bit flat footed after the last he really picked up in a short space of time to put the race to bed. I've noticed when going through the rest of the field a fair few negatives for lots of the runners and some what come to Oscar Rock by way of default.Apart from one blip when falling at Ayr he's simply done nothing wrong and would surley have been unbeaten in all chase starts. I find it hard with so many question marks over the others to envisage him being out of the first 5 if jumping soundly and should certainly be suited by this stiff 2 and a half.

In the Greatwood hurdle on Sunday the normal M.O for this is to find one on the up. However I've arrived at the conclusion that 9yo Olofi must have a major shout of lifting this prize for the second time off 132 especially if the forecast rain arrives and the more the merrier as far as he's concerned. Its been 3 years since he won this with a degree of ease off a mark of 136. Due to a few problems he's had he's only been seen 10 times since. On reappearance this year he was comfortably beaten 20L in the Elite hurdle at Wetherby although for a long way was going well. A speed track like Wetherby was never going to play to his strengths and all his better form seems to have come at Cheltenham down the years. Maybe as he's getting older he takes a bit more getting fit but more than likely Sundays race looks more certainly to have been the target. Does he still retain the ability ? Well judging by a couple of his efforts last term at the course it appears he does and he may have been ingnored a little by the handicapper in my view. He was soundly beaten in this last year but that was off the back off a year and a half layoff his subsequent efforts though suggested he still has it in him. In the international hurdle he was well and easily beaten by The new one and I wouldn't draw lines through him. However he's finished 6L behind 154 rated Vaniteux off levels and has 3 horses over 6L behind him rated 140,156 and 149 one off levels and two conceding him just 4lbs. Next up he's run over 2m4f so you can't really draw a direct line from it but he's got to within spitting distance of Rock on Ruby 160,Cole harden 158 and Vaniteux 154 again on terrible terms and with higher rated rivals beaten off in behind. I wouldn't be so stupid to suggest Olofi is anywhere near this level but on Saturday he doesn't have to be running from a mark of 132 with Jamie Bagary taking off a useful 5lb off this is a lot easier task . He will almost certainly need a bit of give in the ground to stand any chance of winning but the 33/1 generally available is an absolute insult to his ability back at this track.

Paddy Power go top price Oscar Rock 16/1 and 33/1 Olofi and also pay 5 places on both races. I thought about keeping stakes really small as its a real long shot but tbh when I looks that just getting them both in the first 5 the place part of the bet is paying over 45/1 for the double then that's a mental enough price for me to take a decent swipe.

£20e/w double on the pair.
 
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